Table of Contents

PART 1 CONCEPTURAL FRAMEWORK; 1) The Priority of Acting Preventively; 2) Organizing For Proactive Intervention; 3) The Early Warning Toolbox: Cues From Background Conditions; 4) Crossing Thresholds: Mechanisms of conflict Escalation; 5) Keeping Closed the Gates of War: The Peace Potential of Preventive Action; PART 2 CASE STUDIES; 6) The Shock of the Familiar: Discerning Patterns in Burundi’s Cycles of Ethnic Violence; 7) Preventing Conflict in Macedonia: A Lasting Peace or a Line in the Sand?; PART 3 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS; 8) Inventive Diplomacy: Policy Recommendations for Early Warning and conflict Prevention