Table of Contents

1. Introduction: Bayesian decision theory - foundations and problems Peter Gärdenfors, and Nils-Eric Sahlin; Part I. Foundations of Bayesian Decision Theory: 2. Truth and probability Frank P. Ramsey; 3. Individual decision making under uncertainty R. Duncan Luce, and Howard Raiffa; 4. The sure-thing principle Leonard J. Savage; 5. Probable knowledge Richard C. Jeffrey; Part II. Conceptualization of Probability and Utility: Introduction: 6. Bets and beliefs Henry E. Kyburg; 7. Slightly more realistic personal probability Ian Hacking; 8. Risk aversion as a problem of conjoint measurement Bengt Hansson; Part III. Questionable Rule of Rationality: Introduction: 9. Allais' paradox Leonard J. Savage; 10. Sure-thing doubts Edward F. McClennen; 11. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk Daniel Kahneman, and Amos Tversky; 12. Generalized expected utility analysis and the nature of observed violations of the independence axiom Mark Machina; Part IV. Unreliable Probabilities: Introduction: 13. Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms Daniel Ellsberg; 14. Self-knowledge, uncertainty, and choice Frederic Schick; 15. On indeterminate probabilities Isaac Levi; 16. Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making Peter Gärdenfors, and Nils-Eric Sahlin; Part V. Causal Decision Theory: Introduction: 17. Counterfactuals and two kinds of expected utility Allan Gibbard, and William L. Harper; 18. Causal decision theory David Lewis; 19. Ratifiability and stability Wlodzimierz Rabinowicz.