Table of Contents
Preface and Acknowledgments ix
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Overview of the Book's Theory 3
Contributions to Literature and Implications 12
Methodology and Inference 18
Plan of the Book 23
Chapter 2 Two Paths to Democratization 26
Defining Democracy 26
Defining the Paths 29
Theory: No Disruption, No Democracy 39
A Two-Step Theory: Disruption and Democratization 47
Chapter 3 Domestic Shocks 64
Coups 66
Civil Wars 96
Assassinations 114
Chapter 4 International Shocks 122
Defeat in Foreign War 123
Withdrawal of an Autocratic Hegemon 133
Chapter 5 Electoral Continuity 141
Background 141
Electoral Continuity Cases 147
Path to Democratization 150
Electoral Confidence and Democratization 159
Chapter 6 Other Autocracies 175
Outlier Transitions 175
Negative Cases: Patterns of Non-Democratization 182
Chapter 7 Direct Effects of the Paths 188
Predictions 188
Empirical Setup 190
Empirical Results 193
Chapter 8 Mediated Effects of the Paths 208
Predictions 209
Mediation, Moderation, and Democratization 210
The Paths, Pro-Democratic Activity, and Democratization 211
Structural Factors and Democratization: A New Empirical Framework 215
The Paths' Predictive Power 227
Chapter 9 The Paths and Democratic Survival 230
Legacies of Transition: Democratic Survival and Quality 230
Empirical Results 234
Chapter 10 Conclusion 241
Theoretical Contributions 241
Implications 244
The Future of Democracy 249
Appendix 253
List of Democratic Transitions by Paths 253
Coding Details 255
Case Narratives 261
Citations 311
Index 343