Table of Contents

Preface: Understanding Elections ix

Part 1 The Framework of Competition

1 Elite Supply and Mass Response: An Interactive Model 1

Democratization Backwards-and in a Hurry 2

Understanding Election Outcomes 6

2 Electoral Systems Compared 10

Electing Representatives 10

Effects of Electoral Systems 17

3 Parties Without Civil Society 22

A Big Supply of Parties 23

Competition Along Multiple Dimensions 29

4 Voters Without Trust 34

A Legacy of Distrust 35

Political Values Without Parties 38

5 Competition Without Institutionalization 43

Institutionalization in Theory 44

Stable Election Laws 46

Floating Systems of Parties 47

Institutionalizing an Incomplete Democracy 54

References 58

Part 2 National Election Results

Conventions in Reporting Results 66

6 Bulgaria 67

7 Czechoslovakia 84

8 Czech Republic 99

9 Slovakia 113

10 Estonia 129

11 Hungary 144

12 Latvia 157

13 Lithuania 173

14 Poland 191

15 Romania 210

16 Slovenia 230

17 Russia 246

Tables and Figures

Part 1

Figure 1.1 From first free election to European Union entry 5

Figure 1.2 Interactive model of election outcomes 9

Table 2.1 Characteristics of electoral systems 12

Table 2.2 Influences on turnout 18

Table 2.3 Proportionality between votes and seats 19

Table 2.4 Influences on proportionality 20

Figure 3.1 Number of parties by country since 1990 25

Figure 3.2 Average number of parties in an election 27

Table 4.1 Distrust in parties high 36

Figure 4.1 No party the most popular choice 37

Table 4.2 Political outlooks of the electorate 40

Figure 5.1 Few parties show stamina to persist since 1990 48

Figure 5.2 Volatility of vote: founding and latest elections 51

Figure 5.3 Supply-side actions chief cause of volatility 52

Table 5.1 Getting rid of elections unlikely 56

Part 2

Table 6.1 Bulgarian Political Parties 70

6.2a-d Presidential Votes: 1992-2006 73-75

6.3a Votes for the Narodno Sobranie 76

6.3b Percentage of Votes for the Narodno Sobranie 78

6.3c Number of Seats in the Narodno Sobranie 80

6.3d Percentage of Seats in the Narodno Sobranie 82

Table 7.1 Czechoslovak Political Parties, 1990-1992 87

7.2a Votes for the Sn?movna Lidu 90

7.2b Percentage of Votes for the Sn?movna Lidu 92

7.2c Number of Seats in the Sn?movna Lidu 94

7.2d Percentage of Seats in the Sn?movna Lidu 96

Table 8.1 Czech Political Parties 101

8.2a Votes for the Narodn? Rada 1990-1992 and Poslaneck? Sn?movna 1996 104

8.2b Percentage of Votes for the Narodn? Rada 1990-1992 and Poslaneck? Sn?movna 1996 106

8.2c Seats in the Narodn? Rada 1990-1992 and Poslaneck? Sn?movna 1996- 108

8.2d Percentage of Seats in the Narodn? Rada 1990-1992 and Poslaneck? Sn?movna 1996 110

Table 9.1 Slovak Political Parties 115

9.2a-b Presidential Votes: 1999, 2004 118-19

9.3a Votes for the N?rodn? Rada 120

9.3b Percentage of Votes for the N?rodn? Rada 122

9.3c Seats in the N?rodn? Rada 124

9.3d Percentage of Seats in the N?rodn? Rada 126

Table 10.1 Estonian Political Parties 133

10.2 Presidential Vote: 1992 135

10.3a Votes for the Riigikogu 136

10.3b Percentage of Votes for the Riigikogu 138

10.3c Number of Seals in the Riigikogu 140

10.3d Percentage of Seats in the Riigikogu 142

Table 11.1 Hungarian Election: 4 November 1945 145

11.2 Hungarian Political Parties 147

11.3a Votes for the Orsz?ggy?l?s 150

11.3b Percentage of Votes for the Orsz?ggy?l?s 152

11.3c Number of Seats in the Orsz?ggy?l?s 153

11.3d Percentage of Seats in the Orsz?ggy?l?s 155

Table 12.1 Latvian Political Parties 160

12.2a Votes for the Saeima 164

12.2b Percentage of Votes for the Saeima 166

12.2c Number of Seats in the Saeima 168

12.2d Percentage of Seats in the Saeima 170

Table 13.1 Lithuanian Political Parties 175

13.2a-d Presidential Votes: 1993-2004 179-81

13.3a Votes for the Seimas 182

13.3b Percentage of Votes for the Seimas 184

13.3c Number of Seats in the Seimas 186

13.3d Percentage of Seats in the Seimas 188

Table 14.1 Polish Constitutional Referendum, 25 May 1997 194

14.2 Polish Political Parties 195

14.3a-d Presidential Votes: 1990-2005 199-201

14.4a Votes for the Sejm 202

14.4b Percentage of Votes for the Sejm 204

14.4c Number of Seats in the Sejm 206

14.4d Percentage of Seats in the Sejm 208

Table 15.1 Romanian Political Parties 215

15.2a-e Presidential Votes: 1990-2004 219-21

15.3a Votes for the Camera Deputatilor 222

15.3b Percentage of Votes for the Camera Deputatilor 224

15.3c Number of Seats in the Camera Deputatilor 226

15.3d Percentage of Seats in the Camera Deputatilor 228

Table 16.1 Slovenian Political Parties 233

16.2a-e Presidential Votes: 1990-2007 235-37

16.3a Votes for the Dr?avni Zbor 238

16.3b Percentage of Votes for the Dr?avni Zbor 240

16.3c Number of Seats in the Dr?avni Zbor 242

16.3d Percentage of Seats in the Dr?avni Zbor 244

Table 17.1 RSFSR Presidential Vote: 12 June 1991 248

17.2 Vote on Russian Constitution: 12 December 1993 249

Figure 17.1 Disproportionality in Duma Votes and Seats 257

Table 17.3 Russian Political Parties 261

17.4a-d Presidential Votes: 1996-2008 266-67

17.5a List Votes for the Duma 268

17.5b Votes in Single-Member Districts for the Duma 270

17.5c Number of Seats in the Duma 272

17.5d Percentage of Seats in the Duma 274