Table of Contents

Preface     xi
C. Fred Bergsten: Intellectual Entrepreneur   Michael Mussa     1
Evangelist for the Open Economy     3
The Happy Cassandra     6
Star Player, Team Leader     8
Observations: C. Fred Bergsten, the Man and His Institute     10
Constant Ends, Flexible Means: C. Fred Bergsten and the Quest for Open Trade   I. M. Destler   Marcus Noland     15
Recurrent Themes     16
The Institute Years     23
Looking Ahead: Will the Same Patterns Persist?     31
Trade Policy at the Institute: 25 Years and Counting   Gary Clyde Hufbauer   Jeffrey J. Schott     39
Rampant Globalization     43
Multilateral Trade Negotiations     49
Bilateral and Regional Trade Negotiations     50
The US Free Trade Coalition Splinters     53
The Next 25 Years     56
Economic Sanctions and Threats in Foreign and Commercial Policy   Kimberly Ann Elliott     61
Economic Sanctions for Foreign Policy Goals     63
Use of Trade Threats and Sanctions in Managing Trade Policy     71
Summary and Conclusions     75
Trade Adjustment Assistance: The More We Change the More It Stays theSame   Howard Rosen     79
Origins of Trade Adjustment Assistance     80
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back     82
The 2002 Reforms     85
Running in Place     89
Chamber of Commerce Support for TAA     93
Unfinished Business     94
TAA as a Model for Assistance to All Displaced Workers     99
Cost Estimates for Reform Proposals     100
Recent Congressional Activity     103
Conclusion     103
Appendix 5A     106
Appendix 5B     110
Appendix 5C     111
Fred Bergsten as an Early Architect of an International Regime for Foreign Direct Investment   Edward M. Graham     115
Bergsten as an Early Advocate of an International Regime for Investment     116
Does the Case for an International Regime for Investment Still Stand?     127
The International Monetary System in the Work of the Institute   Morris Goldstein     133
Fred Bergsten and the Institute's Work on Exchange Rate Regimes   John Williamson     145
History     146
Target Zones     147
The Blueprint     151
Intervention     152
Crawling Bands for Emerging Markets     154
Baskets     155
The System: Tinkering or Reference Rates?     156
Concluding Remarks     158
What Can Exchange Rates Tell Us?   Edwin M. Truman     161
C. Fred Bergsten: Policymaker and Thinker     163
Methodology     167
The Evidence     174
Concluding Observations     210
Competitiveness and the Assessment of Trade Performance   Martin Neil Baily   Robert Z. Lawrence     215
The Competitiveness Problem Posed by the Competitiveness Policy Council     216
Has Recent US Economic Performance Matched the Goals of the CPC?     218
Reframing the Trade Competitiveness Debate     222
The Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade in Practice     228
Exploring Robustness     232
Impact of Oil and Exports on Worsened Trade Performance     235
Conclusions and Directions for New Research     236
International Debt: The Past Quarter Century and Future Prospects   William R. Cline     243
Principal Phases in the Past 25 Years     243
Institute Research and International Debt Policy     256
Conclusion     272
Follow the Money   Michael Mussa      275
The Great Moral Hazard Bugaboo     276
Problems with Large IMF Programs     298
The Way Forward     309
The IMF as Global Umpire for Exchange Rate Policies   Morris Goldstein     313
Why Currency Manipulation Is Important     314
Why Currency Manipulation Is Important and Still Relevant     316
Myths and Fallacies about Currency Manipulation     322
The IMF as Umpire for the Exchange Rate System     327
Initiatives for Discouraging Currency Manipulation     330
Institutional Strategy for the Global Economy   C. Randall Henning     333
Fred Bergsten's Contributions     334
Second-Generation Strategy     336
Assessment of the Strategy     340
Shortcomings of the Second-Generation Strategy     343
Rule Hardening Requires Political Reinforcement     344
Conclusion     347
Wanted: More Effective Public Communication in Empirical International Economics   J. David Richardson     353
A Brief Personal Retrospective     354
Public Payoffs and Professional Methods for Public Communication     355
A Mixed Assessment     358
Closing Thoughts     359
Publications of C. Fred Bergsten     353
Index     371