Table of Contents

Part I. Introduction: 1. Judgment and decision research: some historical context William M. Goldstein and Robin M. Hogarth; Part II. Currents: 2. Reason-based choice Eldar Shafir, Itamar Simonson and Amos Tversky; 3. Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence Gerd Gigerenzer, Ulrich Hoffrage and Heinz Kleinbolting; 4. Direct comparison of the efficacy of intuitive and analytical cognition in expert judgment Kenneth R. Hammond, Robert M. Hamm, Janet Grassia, and Tamra Pearson; 5. The adaptive decision maker: effort and accuracy in choice John W. Payne, James R. Bettman and Eric J. Johnson; 6. Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing Joshua Klayman and Young-Won Ha; 7. Learning from feedback: exactingness and incentives Robin M. Hogarth, Brian J. Gibbs, Craig R. M. McKenzie and Margaret A. Marquis; 8. Covariation in natural causal induction Patricia W. Cheng and Laura R. Novick; 9. Propensities and counterfactuals: The loser that almost won Daniel Kahneman and Carol A. Varey; 10. The Process-performance paradox in expert judgment: how can experts know so much and predict so badly? Colin F. Camerer and Eric J. Johnson; 11. Intertemporal choice George Loewenstein and Richard H. Thaler; 12. Not me or thee but we: the important of group identity in eliciting cooperation in dilemna situations: experimental manipulations Robyn M. Dawes, Alphons J. C. van de Kragt and John M. Orbell; 13. Predicting a changing taste: do people know what they will like? Daniel Kahneman and Jackie Snell; 14. Endowment and contrast in judgment of well-being Amos Tversky and Dale Griffin; Part III. Connections: 15. The relationship between memory and judgment depends on whether the judgment task is memory-based or on-line Reid Hastie and Bernadette Park; 16. Explanation-based decision making: effects of memory structure on judgment Nancy Pennington and Reid Hastie; 17. Decision making under ignorance: arguing with yourself Robin M. Hogarth and Howard Kunreuther; 18. Positive affect and decision making Alice M. Isen; Part IV. Controversies: 19. The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment: a thirty-year retrospective Michael E. Doherty and Berndt Brehmer; 20. Islanders and hostages: deep and surface structures of decision problems Willem A. Wagenaar, Gideon Keren and Sarah Lichtenstein; 21. Content and discontent: indications and implications of domain specificity in preferential decision making William M. Goldstein and Elke U. Weber; 22. The case for rules in reasoning Edward E. Smith, Cristopher Langston and Richard E. Nisbett; 23. An alternative metaphor in the study of judgment and choice: people as politicians Philip E. Tetlock; 24. Between hope and fear: the psychology of risk Lola L. Lopes.