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Blindside: Why Japan Is Still on Track to Overtake the U. S. by the Year 2000

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  • Anonymous

    Posted February 22, 2002

    So Much for Japan Overtaking the US by 2000

    It is now Feb 2002. So much for the title's premise that Japan will overtake the US by 2000. The first lesson here is to remember that anyone's 'predictions,' no matter how eloquently presented, are just that - prediction by humans who are fallable. Mr. Fingleton, I suppose, does deserve scorn to the extent he was deriding at the 'experts' for being so doom and gloom. Well, doom and gloomers could be right sometimes. The second lesson here is, when journalists write a book, it is time to head for the hills. Journalists are journalists because they write well, but once a view is widely believed by the public so as to justify a market to make a book sellable, for your finanical health you should take the opposite view. In investment lingo, this is the 'headlines' phenomenon. Ie, the best time to buy stocks when magazine cover stories tell you that the stock market is so bad and will definitely end at Armageddon - as was the case in the early 1980's. The best time to sell is when the magazine cover stories say this is a new era of stocks that will know no top - as was the case two years ago at the end of the Internet bubble.

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