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Gaining insight into foresight by better understanding forecasts and predictions of the future
The future ain't what it used to be said Yogi Berra. Maybe he was thinking of the many failed predictions of the future that have been served up over long periods of time by futurologists, experts and ordinary people alike. Berra could have said it ain't easy to remember the future. At least not everything that is being said about it. And that may be just as well as most of it will probably turn out to be wrong. Then again, maybe not so fast. Help is here as I have recently learned.
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In "Future Savvy" author Adam Gordon takes the art of thinking about the future a step further and looks at forecasting and prediction making from the perspective of being the reader, i.e. the consumer, of such information. In plain language and refreshingly free from tables and graphs, Future Savvy takes the reader through a series of forecast and prediction related problems and challenges. And it does so with a great deal of insight and with reference to many little gems of forecast failure.
Headlines like "why numbers aren't as solid as they seem", "bias traps" and "chaos, complexity and wicked problems" give you an idea of what to expect.
As I was reading through the text and recalling some predictions I myself have seen, I started to get a better understanding of why quite a few went spectacularly wrong.
Towards the end I thought this is very interesting but it would be even more so if there had been some reviews of actual forecasts as well. And as I turn the page, voilà there it is.
In chapter ten Gordon comments on six actual forecasts applying his own analytical framework. The book then finishes with a summary of important questions the savvy reader of future forecasts must ask.
While forecasting techniques at least are better than astrology and fortune telling, they seem to far from always result in reliable predictions. As Gordon puts it in the last chapter, "forecasts are an indispensable but highly patchy guide to the world of tomorrow". Keeping a copy of Future Savvy handy while reading and making sense of forecasts is not a bad idea. It would in fact be a rather good idea, if you also wish to gently step into the future guided by how others say they see it.
Some books are interesting and enjoyable to read. Some are useful. In my opinion, Adam Gordon's book is both. -
Verne
Posted November 10, 2008
Future Savvy
The premise of the book is that each of us is subjected to a lot of advice about the future, whether in the media, in our careers, newsletter, blogs, etc. Gordon¿s point is that you need to understand how to separate the good information from the bad. How to recognize bias and spin.
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Gordon lumps nearly all information about trends, forecasts, predictions, market research, and other forward looking information under the term ¿forecast.¿ I found that a little jarring at first, but got used to it. He needed a collective term, and that works. He then divides forecasts into two types, ¿future-aligning¿ forecasts which help people or organizations prepare for or deal with the future and ¿future-influencing¿ forecasts that seek to influence opinions or events in order to change the future in their preferred direction.
Gordon then lays out what I felt was a good mini-course in statistics and surveys, but without numbers or formulas. Just basic `how this works¿ stuff. Easy to read and understand, while offering the tools for critical analysis of forecasts. He follows that with a chapter on how to recognize bias, both natural and intentional, then asks you to consider your own biases and assumptions.
From that background in critical analysis of forecasts, Gordon moves on to explaining some of the methods used in creating forecasts, including how to use the methods and describing their strengths and weaknesses. This includes a chapter on systems perspective and a chapter on scenarios that is subtitled ¿How it¿s better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.¿
The final chapters of the book offer several specific examples of forecasts (including their web addresses) followed by Gordon¿s analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each forecast. He then closes with a list of questions the reader should ask (and why) about any forecast.
This book will change the way most readers look at forecasts, projections and surveys, to their benefit.
Although this book is aimed at business readers, I believe Gordon offers advice that anyone can use. We all make decisions about the future every day and we read or hear information about the future constantly. Future Savvy offers some good advice on how to filter that information and how to make better decisions about the future.
Verne Wheelwright, PhD.