Internet Collapses and Other InfoWorld Punditry

How I predicted an Internet gigalapse in 1996.

You are invited to read how I predicted an Internet gigalapse in 1996. Thank heaven the worst outage that year was only a 118 megalapse. I ate that worrisome column in front of a thousand Internet enthusiasts at the Santa Clara Convention Center. Then, having learned that it is better for a pundit to be wrong than vague, I predicted that the Internet stock bubble would burst on November 8, 1999, which it didn't, not that exact day anyway. I'm still standing by that prediction. On the other hand, I've been on Microsoft's antitrust case since 1991. In late 1999, I predicted Bill Gates would be replaced as CEO during 2000, and a month later, Ballmer took over. And I was for advertising on the Internet back when its few grouchy users were all non-commercial. Being right and wrong like this is one part of my being a technology pundit. Another part is calling attention to important technology trends before they're obvious -- bogus software patents, for example -- and coining terms to help talk about these trends -- I'm especially proud of 'extranet.' Internet Collapses is a book of my best columns over the last 10 years. I've made no attempt to update them, or retroactively revise my predictions. I thought you'd be interested in these columns and the evolving punditry process that they portray. And as an extra added attraction, I invited a few big shots to rebut my columns, which some of them took too much enjoyment in doing. Anyway, I hope you'll end up as another of my enthusiastic readers. /Bob Metcalfe (metcalfe@infoworld.com)