Table of Contents

 Contents Executive Summary vi Introduction: A Transformed World More Change than Continuity Alternative Futures Chapter 1: The Globalizing Economy Back to the Future Growing Middle Class State Capitalism: A Post-Democratic Marketplace Rising in the East? Bumpy Ride in Correcting Current Global Imbalances Multiple Financial Nodes Diverging Development Models, but for How Long? Chapter 2: The Demographics of Discord Populations Growing, Declining, and Diversifying—at the Same Time The Pensioner Boom: Challenges of Aging Populations Persistent Youth Bulges Changing Places: Migration, Urbanization, and Ethnic Shifts Demographic Portraits: Russia, China, India, and Iran Chapter 3: The New Players Rising Heavyweights: China and India Other Key Players Up-and-Coming Powers Global Scenario I: A World Without the West  Chapter 4: Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty? The Dawning of a Post-Petroleum Age? The Geopolitics of Energy Water, Food, and Climate Change Global Scenario II: October Surprise Chapter 5: Growing Potential for Conflict A Shrinking Arc of Instability by 2025? Growing Risk of a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East New Conflicts Over Resources? Terrorism: Good and Bad News Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq: Local Trajectories and Outside Interests Global Scenario III: BRICs’ Bust-Up Chapter 6: Will the International System Be Up to the Challenges? Multipolarity without Multilateralism How Many International Systems? A World of Networks Global Scenario IV: Politics is Not Always Local Chapter 7: Power-Sharing in a Multipolar World Demand for US Leadership Likely to Remain Strong, Capacities Will Shrink New Relationships and Recalibrated Old Partnerships Less Financial Margin of Error More Limited Military Superiority Surprises and Unintended Consequences Leadership Will Be Key