The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns
The economy is so powerful in determining the results of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start. But if it is true that "it's the economy, Stupid," why do incumbents in good economies sometimes lose? The reason, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what matters is not just the state of the economy but how candidates react to it. By demonstrating more precisely than ever before how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, The Message Matters provides a powerful new way of understanding past elections—and predicting future ones.


Vavreck examines the past sixty years of presidential elections and offers a new theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions. Using data from presidential elections since 1952, she reveals why, when, and how campaign messages make a difference—and when they can outweigh economic predictors of election outcomes.



The Message Matters does more than show why candidates favored by the economy must build their campaigns around economic messages. Vavreck's theory also explains why candidates disadvantaged by the economy must try to focus their elections on noneconomic issues that meet exacting criteria—and why this is so hard to do.

1117370606
The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns
The economy is so powerful in determining the results of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start. But if it is true that "it's the economy, Stupid," why do incumbents in good economies sometimes lose? The reason, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what matters is not just the state of the economy but how candidates react to it. By demonstrating more precisely than ever before how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, The Message Matters provides a powerful new way of understanding past elections—and predicting future ones.


Vavreck examines the past sixty years of presidential elections and offers a new theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions. Using data from presidential elections since 1952, she reveals why, when, and how campaign messages make a difference—and when they can outweigh economic predictors of election outcomes.



The Message Matters does more than show why candidates favored by the economy must build their campaigns around economic messages. Vavreck's theory also explains why candidates disadvantaged by the economy must try to focus their elections on noneconomic issues that meet exacting criteria—and why this is so hard to do.

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The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns

The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns

by Lynn Vavreck
The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns

The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns

by Lynn Vavreck

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Overview

The economy is so powerful in determining the results of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start. But if it is true that "it's the economy, Stupid," why do incumbents in good economies sometimes lose? The reason, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what matters is not just the state of the economy but how candidates react to it. By demonstrating more precisely than ever before how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, The Message Matters provides a powerful new way of understanding past elections—and predicting future ones.


Vavreck examines the past sixty years of presidential elections and offers a new theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions. Using data from presidential elections since 1952, she reveals why, when, and how campaign messages make a difference—and when they can outweigh economic predictors of election outcomes.



The Message Matters does more than show why candidates favored by the economy must build their campaigns around economic messages. Vavreck's theory also explains why candidates disadvantaged by the economy must try to focus their elections on noneconomic issues that meet exacting criteria—and why this is so hard to do.


Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780691139630
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Publication date: 07/26/2009
Edition description: New Edition
Pages: 232
Product dimensions: 6.00(w) x 9.10(h) x 0.60(d)

About the Author

Lynn Vavreck is associate professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles. She is coeditor of Campaign Reform: Insights and Evidence and coprincipal investigator of the Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project.

Table of Contents

List of Figures xi

List of Tables xiii

Acknowledgments xvii

Prologue xxi





CHAPTER ONE: Presidential Campaigns 1

Basic Questions 2

What's Coming 3





PART I





CHAPTER TWO: How and Why Campaigns Matter 9

The Challenge 10

Something's Happening in America 11

The Importance of the Economy 12

The Importance of the Media 14

A Theory of Campaign Effects 15

Integrating Literatures 16

Spatial Voting: The Past as Predictor of the Future 18

Retrospective Voting and Campaign Effects 22

Individual-Level Characteristics and Campaign Effects 23





CHAPTER THREE: Context Matters: A Campaign Typology 26

Theoretical Predictions 28

A Campaign Typology 31

Clarifying Campaigns 31

Insurgent Campaigns 32

When the Economy Is Mixed 33

Predicting Campaign Types, 1952-2000 35





PART II





CHAPTER FOUR: The Media Disconnect:Media and Candidate Messages 43

Candidates' Messages and How to Measure Them 46

Advertisements and Speeches 46

Newspaper Coverage 48

Coding the Ads, Speeches, and News Coverage 53

The Content of Modern Campaigns 57

The Media Disconnect 58





CHAPTER FIVE: The Message Matters: Candidate-Level Tests of the Theory 67

Clarifying Campaigns: Dominating Economic Discussion 69

Insurgent Campaigns: Issue Selection Matters 71

Stevenson 1952 and 1956: Second Time Same as the First 76

Goldwater 1964: Just Enough Power to Get the Job Done 78

Carter 1980 and Mondale 1984:War through Strength 80

Dukakis 1988: An Unfocused American Dream 82

Insurgent Candidates Making Wise Choices 83

Kennedy 1960: High Hopes 83

Nixon 1968: Freedom from Fear or Racial Appeal? 86

Carter 1976: Outside and Honest 90

Two More Tests of the Theory at the Candidate Level 105

A More Rigorous Test of Compliance 105

Explaining the Errors in Forecasting Models 107





PART III





CHAPTER SIX: The Message Matters:Microlevel Tests of the Theory 113

Clarifying Candidate Campaign Effects: Do Campaign Messages Shape Voters' Evaluations of Candidates? 115

High Fidelity? 116

Ads:Messages That Matter 120

Clarifying Candidate Campaign Effects: Do Campaign Messages Help Voters Learn about Candidates' Issue Positions? 123

Measuring Uncertainty 125

Reducing Uncertainty 128

Campaign Learning about the Economy 131

Insurgent-Candidate Campaign Effects: Changing the Debate by Increasing the Importance of Issues 134

The Most Important Problem in the Nation 137

Most Important Problem and Vote Choice 140

Insurgent Candidate Campaign Effects: Being Closer to Most Voters on the Insurgent Issue 144

The Difference in Distances 144

Differences in Distances and Vote Choice 151

The Message and Its Effects 155





CHAPTER SEVEN: Candidates Creating Context 159

Can Candidates Create the Context? 160

Creating Salience: Finding the Right Insurgent Issue 163





Appendix 167

References 191

Index 199


What People are Saying About This

Bartels

Vavreck's creative theorizing and informative historical analysis will change the way political scientists think about presidential campaigns. While giving campaign strategists their overdue due, she also sheds invaluable light on how political contexts shape their strategies and their odds of success.
Larry M. Bartels, author of "Unequal Democracy"

Lewis-Beck

Professor Vavreck shows, for the first time, how the economy plays for or against political candidates in the context of their campaigns. The work is a monumental theoretical and empirical achievement that promises to become a political science classic.
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, author of "Economics and Elections"

Sniderman

I have not read a book of comparable elegance of argument and mastery of analysis in years. It is outstanding on three dimensions. In its combination of analytical depth and economy, it is a model for research on election campaigns. In its fusion of theory and empirics, it is a model for research in political science. In its principled, persistent, ingenious efforts to turn up evidence against its own hypotheses, it is a model for the social sciences.
Paul M. Sniderman, Stanford University

From the Publisher

"Vavreck's creative theorizing and informative historical analysis will change the way political scientists think about presidential campaigns. While giving campaign strategists their overdue due, she also sheds invaluable light on how political contexts shape their strategies and their odds of success."—Larry M. Bartels, author of Unequal Democracy

"Lynn Vavreck's message matters. She explains how and when candidate messages can clarify distinctions and gain vote share over the course of a campaign. Moving beyond puerile arguments about whether campaigns matter, Vavreck identifies critical differences among issues—and between incumbents and challengers—that determine which messages are persuasive."—Samuel L. Popkin, University of California, San Diego

"I have not read a book of comparable elegance of argument and mastery of analysis in years. It is outstanding on three dimensions. In its combination of analytical depth and economy, it is a model for research on election campaigns. In its fusion of theory and empirics, it is a model for research in political science. In its principled, persistent, ingenious efforts to turn up evidence against its own hypotheses, it is a model for the social sciences."—Paul M. Sniderman, Stanford University

"Professor Vavreck shows, for the first time, how the economy plays for or against political candidates in the context of their campaigns. The work is a monumental theoretical and empirical achievement that promises to become a political science classic."—Michael S. Lewis-Beck, author of Economics and Elections

"A pathbreaking contribution to the study of American politics, The Message Matters provides new insights into how campaigns affect the magnitude of the economic vote. It will be required reading for anyone doing serious work in the field of campaigns."—Raymond Duch, Nuffield College, University of Oxford

Raymond Duch

A pathbreaking contribution to the study of American politics, The Message Matters provides new insights into how campaigns affect the magnitude of the economic vote. It will be required reading for anyone doing serious work in the field of campaigns.
Raymond Duch, Nuffield College, University of Oxford

Popkin

Lynn Vavreck's message matters. She explains how and when candidate messages can clarify distinctions and gain vote share over the course of a campaign. Moving beyond puerile arguments about whether campaigns matter, Vavreck identifies critical differences among issues—and between incumbents and challengers—that determine which messages are persuasive.
Samuel L. Popkin, University of California, San Diego

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