2018 Minor League Baseball Analyst
144
2018 Minor League Baseball Analyst
144eBook
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Product Details
| ISBN-13: | 9781633199477 |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | Triumph Books |
| Publication date: | 03/15/2018 |
| Sold by: | INDEPENDENT PUB GROUP - EPUB - EBKS |
| Format: | eBook |
| Pages: | 144 |
| File size: | 98 MB |
| Note: | This product may take a few minutes to download. |
About the Author
Read an Excerpt
CHAPTER 1
INSIGHTS
Building a Successful Fantasy Farm System
by Chris Blessing
You've prepared for this upcoming dynasty draft for months. If you preordered your Baseball Forecaster copy, you've been combing through data since before Thanksgiving. You have your Forecaster handy, along with your own copious notes, printed copies of BHQ's Top 15 organizational prospect lists, BaseballHQ.com pulled up on one computer screen, spreadsheets pulled up on another and a beverage of your choice by your side, ready to tackle and own your dynasty draft. Are you really ready? Sure, you have a game plan for your main roster. But, do you have a game plan for your available minor league slots?
The owners who go into the draft strategizing the minor league portion are most likely the owners contending every September for the championship. These owners are not just reviewing prospect lists. They're embracing the prospect draft with clearly defined expectations. They've developed their strategy by managing risk, identifying player pool inefficiencies and strengths, assessing prospect opportunities and trade potential throughout the season, defining the parameters of their league and exploiting the biases of fellow owners.
How to do it? Read on ...
Defined Expectations
No matter the format, successful farm system construction starts with defining expectations.
Essentially, what are you trying to accomplish? If it's to guess which players are tomorrow's superstar fantasy contributors, you are probably doing it wrong. It's not a sound strategy, especially in smaller formats where taking on greater risk can have catastrophic consequences. An appropriate defined expectation can be as simple as you want to make it — like acquiring assets to contend or maintaining a competitive advantage over the league's other owners. Whatever the expectation, there are some sound strategies to consider when tackling farm system construction.
Risk Evaluation
Level of risk varies based on factors such as format, player pool size, league rules and eligibility. In shallow formats, there is no need to assume too much risk acquiring prospects with a variable degree of outcomes. Don't make bold statements. An owner shouldn't want to use one of their limited roster spots on a player like Reds outfielder Jose Siri, who had a terrific 2017 as an older prospect in the Midwest League. His MLB impact won't be for another two or three years and there is a variable amount of risk that 2017 was more fluke than actual player. Instead, a shallow format owner should target a player with less boomor-bust risk, like Yankees pitching prospect Chance Adams. Vastly underrated by prospect media, Adams has dominated each minor league level, including Triple-A last season. Adams is close to contributing and at worst is an injury away from a rotation spot while someone like Siri has more heralded prospects like Taylor Trammell and Jesse Winker ahead of him on the Reds OF depth chart.
Even though Adams is a pitcher, which is an unreliable position set, he also carries curb appeal for owners using prospects to acquire veterans to make a championship run. Opposing owners tend to know the names of Yankees prospects like Adams, Justus Sheffield, Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar because their media coverage is greater than teams like the Reds, even if Adams has been unheralded. Siri has curb appeal too. He made headlines in 2017 for his 39-game hit streak. If other owners in your league don't do a lot of minor league research and go by name recognition, Siri may be a guy a with some name recognition.
In deeper formats, an owner should manage a farm system like a financial portfolio, breaking down risk by identifying short-term, medium-term and long-term assets.
Short-term assets are prospects who are 0-to-2 years away from making a fantasy impact (which is different than 0-to-2 years from making their debut). These players may already be in the big leagues; just not having a fantasy impact yet. In formats with 15 or more slots available for prospects, owners should allocate 25%-to-40% of their farm system to short-term assets. Prospects such as Adams, Rays prospect Brent Honeywell, Rangers prospect Willie Calhoun and Reds prospect Nick Senzel are great examples of short-term assets. Each player has a clear path towards playing time and should hold their own as rookies. There are other short-term assets to consider too. Guys like Rays prospect Jake Bauers and Brewers prospect Mauricio Dubon are unheralded players with solid track records, who lack curb appeal and a clear path towards playing time unless opportunity arises through trade or injury.
Medium-term assets are prospects who are 2-to-3 years away from making a fantasy impact. In fantasy, medium-term assets should make up the bulk of your farm system portfolio because most Top 100 prospects fall into the medium-term asset category. These assets should make up 50% of your portfolio. Each player in this category should have a greater than 50% chance of becoming a solid fantasy contributor and greater than 30% chance of becoming a fantasy all-star. For higher impact guys, names such as Blue Jays prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Phillies prospect Sixto Sanchez should be considered part of this category. Owners should also try to find steady High-A and Double-A pitchers who may lack top-of-the-rotation upside but have solid potential to become mid-rotation starters or late-inning relievers. Think guys like Padres prospect Cal Quantrill, Tigers prospect Beau Burrows and Dodgers prospect Mitchell White. This is where owners should stash recently drafted college bats like Brewers prospect Keston Hiura and Diamondbacks prospect Pavin Smith.
Long-term assets are prospects who are 4 or more years away from making a fantasy impact. These types of assets should only account for 5%-to-25% of your portfolio. Made up of mostly teenaged players, this category is reserved for prospects with high ceilings and low floors. In other words, speculative stocks. A good philosophy is to target standout short-season performers, especially teenaged pitching since it's the most speculative market. It is easy to find the prep guys who recently debuted for their organizations, like Reds prospect Hunter Greene and Padres prospect MacKenzie Gore. It's harder to find international teenaged prospects to target. This book can help you find those players. The next great pitching prospect will be debuting in full-season ball next season. It could be Greene, Gore or someone not mentioned yet, like Athletics prospect Jesus Luzardo.
Player Pool Inefficiencies and Strengths
Identifying player pool inefficiencies and strengths gives owners a distinct advantage over the competition, especially in shallow formats. These inefficiencies and strengths can be positional, category-driven or skill-driven. For instance, third base continues to be a weak player pool on the MLB level, even with Jose Ramirez having a breakout season and Rafael Devers making his MLB debut. While other infield positions go 12-to-15 deep in the player pool, 3B goes about 10 deep. In a 12-team format, two or three teams are stuck with an average-to-subpar regular at 3B. Loading up on 3B prospects is a solid strategy to control a weak player pool. Having 3B prospects like Nick Senzel, Marlins prospect Brian Anderson and White Sox prospect Jake Burger at your disposal could help mitigate trades with less fortunate owners and/or improve your depth.
Speed is the ultimate lacking quality in fantasy. If a prospect has exhibited a proficiency stealing bases, he's probably worth targeting. There are few upper level prospects showcasing big SB numbers, like Athletics prospect Jorge Mateo and Blue Jays prospect Anthony Alford. Identifying speed prospects early is ideal, especially working in deeper prospect formats. Guys like the aforementioned Reds prospects Siri and Trammell and Braves prospect Cristian Pache are good examples of riskier big SB potential guys to target who are further away from the big leagues.
Other Factors
Every dynasty league plays by its own set of rules and behaviors. Some leagues allow you to keep a small number of minor league players each year while others allow owners to keep a slew of minor leaguers. If your league allows only a couple of keepers a season, target top prospects only for those keeper spots and load up on short-term assets in the draft to help get you through the season. In these sort of leagues, minor league eligibility is an ongoing issue since most of the farm system is dedicated to short-term assets. In these cases, it is important to monitor the waiver wire for prospects to fill newly created minor league slots.
Often overlooked in a fantasy farm system is bias within farm system development. We've all been in leagues where an owner's bias, whether towards a certain type of player or a specific team, can easily be identified. Don't be that owner. It is easy to take advantage of owners that let their bias bleed out, especially in trade discussion. Some of the best fantasy owners have clearly defined biases. Don't underestimate this and use this to your advantage.
Finally, adjust your farm system strategy every off-season to best compete for a league title. Do you need prospects to fill holes on your roster to compete this season or do you need to build up your farm system to compete in the future? Determine where your roster is at and make the necessary adjustments to your farm system strategy. The goal for farm system construction should always be to sustain fantasy success. The mission statement should change regularly.
Top 20 International Prospects for 2018
by Jeremy Deloney
Over the last several years, Major League Baseball has made tweaks and implemented changes to the signing of international players, some in part for the purposes of leveling the playing field. There have been numerous discussions about making international players available for a draft. Listed below are various international prospects who inked contracts during the international signing period in 2017 or have yet to sign, but are eligible to do so. Because of the uncertainty of defections and eligibility, some top Cuban prospects are not profiled below.
Please note that some players eligible for this list who have already signed contracts with major league organizations have player boxes in this book. For the purposes of space, those players aren't profiled here. Such prospects include: Wander Franco (SS, TAM), Julio Rodriguez (OF, SEA), and Ynmanol Marinez (SS, MIA).
In alphabetical order:
Aaron Bracho (SS, CLE)
One of the younger signees in this class, the switch-hitter doesn't turn 17 until April 2018. Bracho doesn't have the flashiest tools around, but he is fundamentally sound and uses an advanced approach at the plate. His quick, level swing path produces hard line drives and he is able and willing to use the entire field. Though he only exhibits average power potential at most, he has enough strength to keep defenses honest. His future position is up in the air. Some see him sticking at shortstop due to his fluid actions while others see a move to 2B where his average arm and range are more suitable.
Signing bonus/status: Signed for $1.5 million
MLB debut: 2024
Roberto Chirinos (SS, NYY)
The quick, athletic 17-year-old is all about agility, fluidity and defense at present. He possesses quick, sure hands while displaying fundamental footwork. His range may be a little short, but his arm strength would be an asset at 3B, 2B, or possibly the outfield. His feel for the game is advanced for his age. As a hitter, Chirinos has exemplary bat speed and some pull power. He focuses on putting the ball in play with a compact stroke. He is more likely to hit for BA than he is for HR when he reaches full maturity.
Signing bonus/status: Signed for $900,000
MLB debut: 2024
Trent Deveaux (OF, LAA)
The Angels quickly fell in love with the 17-year-old's speed and believe he has the projectable build to turn into a well-rounded player. Deveaux has elite wheels which help him to cover a ton of ground in CF. His reads and routes are a bit crude right now, but with polish, he could become a premium defender down the road. His lean frame could add significant strength and he could hit for a modicum of power at his peak. Deveaux has a keen understanding of the strike zone and he generally keeps the ball on the ground to use his speed.
Signing bonus/status: Signed for $1.2 million
MLB debut: 2024
Danny Diaz (SS, BOS)
The 17-year-old can really put a charge in the ball and has a chance to evolve into a middle-of-the-order run producer. He's quite slender now, but with his bat speed and swing path, he has well above average power potential. Diaz has the ability to use the entire field with hard contact and is able to differentiate between balls and strikes. He has a chance to hit for both BA and power. As a defender, he's likely to move to 3B or the outfield because of his size and cannon arm. He isn't the most proficient defensively, though he exhibits good instincts.
Signing bonus/status: Signed for $1.6 million
MLB debut: 2023
Larry Ernesto (OF, MIL)
There are a number of scouts who have already heaped effusive praise on the 17-year-old. Ernesto, a switch-hitter, is an electric and projectable athlete who projects to all five tools. While he is extremely fast now, he's likely to slow down as he matures, but he'll still be a stolen base threat. He owns a very disciplined approach at the plate and has above average raw power to all fields. Once he grows into his frame, he could be an ideal #3 hitter in the lineup. Defensively, he needs work on his routes and jumps, but he tracks down balls in the gaps and has a strong arm.
Signing bonus/status: Signed for $1.8 million
MLB debut: 2024
Luis Garcia (SS, PHI)
The 17-year-old is one of the more fundamentally-sound signees from this international class. The Phillies signed him based mostly on his potential plus defensive skills. He is a smooth defender with the range, footwork, and arm to be a signficant contributor with the glove. Garcia makes both spectacular and routine plays look easy. As a hitter, he'll likely never be much of a power threat, but he makes consistent contact from both sides of the plate and can use the entire field with his approach. His plate patience is also admirable and could lead to a potentially high OBP.
Signing bonus/status: Signed for $2.5 million
MLB debut: 2024
Adrian Hernandez (OF, NYM)
Though he won't turn 17 until February 2018, Hernandez already looks the part of a big leaguer. He has an athletic, strong frame and owns plus speed. He needs to add significant polish to his crude plate approach and swing mechanics, but the natural talent is there. The right-handed hitter has lightning-quick bat speed and owns plus, raw power as a result. He tends to swing at everything right now and has trouble reading spin. Hernandez profiles very well in RF, though he's currently a CF due to his strong arm. If he reaches his potential, he could hit in the middle of the lineup.
Signing bonus/status: Signed for $1.5 million
MLB debut: 2023
Miguel Hilardo (SS, TOR)
The 17-year-old is a natural hitter who could potentially hit at the top of the lineup with high BA and OBP upside. His swing mechanics are clean and quick while his batting eye is keen. Hilardo likes to use the entire field with his line drive approach and use his speed to leg out extra base hits. As he continues to grow and read pitches better, his power could escalate to at least average status. A troublesome spot at this point is his defense. He plays SS now, but is likely to slide over to 3B or 2B eventually. While he has quick hands and smooth actions, his arm and range would be better elsewhere.
Signing bonus/status: Signed for $750,000
MLB debut: 2024
Jelfry Marte (SS, TAM)
The Twins originally were all-in on the 16-year-old and signed him to a $3 million bonus. However, they later voided the contract due to concern with his physical, and then the Rays picked him up. Though some see him as more of a light-hitting shortstop; others envision a switch-hitter who could grow into average power. His short, lean frame needs significant muscle to realize any power, but his bat control and plate coverage are advanced for his age. Marte is a true shortstop who should stay at that position long-term. All of his tools play up due to his innate feel for the game.
Signing bonus/status: Signed for $800,000
MLB debut: 2025
Ronny Mauricio (SS, NYM)
The Mets project the 16-year-old to be a potential All-Star shortstop. Mauricio is very lean and offers outstanding agility and body control for his age. His long and thin frame needs to add good weight for him to realize his offensive upside and he will be given time to develop. He has a high baseball IQ and makes good contact from both sides of the plate. He hits a lot of doubles now and those should turn into HR as he grows. As a defender, he ranges well to both sides and has the plus arm to make throws from deep in the hole.
Signing bonus/status: Signed for $2.1 million
MLB debut: 2023
(Continues…)
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Table of Contents
Cover,
Title Page,
Copyright,
Acknowledgments,
Introduction,
Insights,
The 2018 HQ100,
Batters,
Pitchers,
Major League Equivalents,
Organization Ratings/Rankings,
Mega-Lists,
Glossary,
Team Affiliations,
Blatant Advertisements for Other Products,