Aerosol Forcing of Climate: Report of the Dahlem Workshop on Aerosol Forcing of Climate, Berlin 1994, April 24-29

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Global climate change as a consequence of anthropogenic changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere poses scientific questions of a nature and interdisciplinary scope that are unprecedented. Uncertainties in the climate forecast are large and thus far have hampered the establishment of a clear world plan for preventing or mitigating against unacceptable effects. The forecast of global and regional climate changes depends upon the development of a sound understanding of the factors that change the global...
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Overview

Global climate change as a consequence of anthropogenic changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere poses scientific questions of a nature and interdisciplinary scope that are unprecedented. Uncertainties in the climate forecast are large and thus far have hampered the establishment of a clear world plan for preventing or mitigating against unacceptable effects. The forecast of global and regional climate changes depends upon the development of a sound understanding of the factors that change the global heat balance and thus influence the climate. Changes in heat balance due to anthropogenic or externally imposed changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere are referred to as forcings. While the uncertainties in the global mean greenhouse-gas forcing are not negligible (??? 15%), uncertainties in forcings by changes in the atmospheric aerosol and in clouds are much larger, and in some cases even include uncertainty in the sign of the forcing. Reductionist science, with its compartmentalized disciplines, has not coped effectively with the scientific problems of aerosols and their effects, largely because of a need for simultaneous consideration of chemical processes, chemical properties, physical properties, and a wide variety of physical processes and consequences. In the case of natural aerosols and their effects on clouds, it is even necessary to include studies of microbiology and of biochemistry. This volume the record of intense, interdisciplinary debate between atmospheric chemists, meteorologists, physicists, and biogeochemists - considers the subset of climate forcings due to atmospheric aerosols, with particular emphasis on integrating the necessarydisciplinary components. It is truly unique in its interdisciplinary approach. The information contained in the overview papers and summary reports will be of interest to policymakers and scientists alike. Goal of this Dahlem Workshop to assess the controlling factors, geographic and temporal variations of the radiative properties of atmospheric aerosols, and to examine the extent to which their forcing through direct and indirect effects counteracts greenhouse-gas forcing on regional and global climate.
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Table of Contents

The Dahlem Konferenzen
List of Participants
1 Introduction 1
2 Climate Forcing, Climate Sensitivity, and Climate Response: A Radiative Modeling Perspective on Atmospheric Aerosols 11
3 Sources, Distributions, and Fluxes of Mineral Aerosols and Their Relationship to Climate 43
4 Sulfate Aerosols and Their Atmospheric Precursors 73
5 Carbonaceous Aerosols Influencing Atmospheric Radiation: Black and Organic Carbon 91
6 Mechanisms of Direct and Indirect Climate Forcing by Aerosols in the Arctic Region 109
7 Atmospheric Chemistry Changes versus Past Climate Inferred from Polar Ice Cores 123
8 Aerosol Dynamics and Its Implication for the Global Aerosol Climatology 153
9 Projection of Trends in Anthropogenic Aerosol Sources 171
10 Group Report: What Factors Influence Atmospheric Aerosols, How Have They Changed in the Past, and How Might They Change in the Future?
11 Modeling the Relationships between Aerosol Properties and the Direct and Indirect Effects of Aerosols on Climate 197
12 A Systematic Approach to In Situ Observations of Aerosol Properties 215
13 In Situ Observations of the Indirect Effects of Aerosols on Clouds 227
14 Group Report: Connections between Aerosol Properties and Forcing of Climate
15 Modeling Geographical and Seasonal Forcing due to Aerosols 281
16 Remote Sensing of Direct and Indirect Aerosol Forcing 297
17 Group Report: Magnitudes and Geographical Variations and Uncertainties of Properties of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Aerosols and Their Forcing
18 Climatic Response to Anthropogenic Sulfate Forcing Simulated with a General Circulation Model 349
19 Evidence for Radiative Effects of Anthropogenic Sulfate Aerosols in the Observed Climate Record 363
20 Group Report: What Are the Observed and Anticipated Meteorological and Climatic Responses to Aerosol Forcing?
Glossary of Terms and Acronyms 401
Author Index 407
Subject Index 408
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