The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation

Overview

While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, author A. GaryShilling, an award-winning economic forecaster, argues that theglobal economy is going through a long period of deleveraging andweak growth—which makes deflation far more likely and a fargreater threat to investors than inflation.

In The Age of Deleveraging, Shilling explains in clearterms why the United States and world economy will struggle forseveral more years and what you ...

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The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation

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Overview

While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, author A. GaryShilling, an award-winning economic forecaster, argues that theglobal economy is going through a long period of deleveraging andweak growth—which makes deflation far more likely and a fargreater threat to investors than inflation.

In The Age of Deleveraging, Shilling explains in clearterms why the United States and world economy will struggle forseveral more years and what you can do to protect and grow yourwealth in the difficult times ahead.

Opening with an informative look at Shilling's incredibleforecasting track record—including the recent housing andfinancial bubbles—as well as his philosophy behindforecasting and analyzing the economy and financial markets, TheAge of Deleveraging moves on to discuss his outlook for slowgrowth and deflation in the next decade, and how you can cope withit.

The fact is, investment strategies that have worked for the lasttwenty-five years will not work in the next ten. Nobody understandsthis better than Shilling, and with The Age of Deleveraging,he offers expert advice on what it will take for investors tonavigate such treacherous terrain, including avoiding commercialreal estate and commodities and focusing on high-quality bonds,consumer staple and food stocks, and investments related to NorthAmerican energy sources.

Along the way, Shilling also:

  • Examines the effects of increased government regulation andinvolvement in the economy as well as six other factors that willhamper economic growth in the next decade
  • Outlines various strategies for investing in appropriatesectors and avoiding others
  • Provides a practical perspective of how stocks will fare in thelong run
  • And much more

Filled with in-depth insights and detailed advice, this timelyguide lays out a convincing case for why investors need to beprepared for a long period of weak growth and deflation—notinflation—and what you can do to prosper during thistime.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780470596364
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • Publication date: 11/9/2010
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 528
  • Product dimensions: 6.30 (w) x 9.10 (h) x 1.80 (d)

Meet the Author

A. GARY SHILLING is President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor. He has been a columnist for Forbes magazine since 1983, frequently appears on business news programs, and is quoted regularly in the print media. Shilling has been warning about the long-term threat of deflation for several years and has even created a board game, aptly titled The Deflation Game. He received his bachelor's degree from Amherst College and earned his master's degree and PhD in economics at Stanford University. Before establishing his own firm in 1978, Shilling was senior vice president and chief economist of White, Weld & Co., Inc. Earlier, he set up the Economics Department at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith and served as the firm's first chief economist.

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Table of Contents

Foreword viii

Acknowledgments xii

Introduction xiv
Delveraging, especially of the global financial and U.S.consumer sectors, will dominate the worldwide economy for years.It's centered on five traumas so far. Three more possibilitiesloom.

Chapter 1 Spotting Bubbles 1
Economic and financial bubbles are time-honored and part ofimmutable human nature. I love to be among the few to spot them andpredict their demise. They follow a welldefined pattern as theyexpand and burst.

Chapter 2 Making Great Calls 29
They involve important events that the consensus doesn'tforesee and unfold for the stated reasons. Here are five I've made:the 1969-1970 recession, the early 1970s inventory bubble and1973-1975 recession, disinflation starting in the early1980s, the demise of Japan's 1980s bubble, and the dot-com blow-offin 2000.

Chapter 3 The Housing Bubble (Great Call 6) 53
Why I saw it coming in the early 2000s, how I forecast itsdemise and the way I personally profited.

Chapter 4 The Financial Bubble (Great Call 7) 95
The great disconnect between the financial and real worldsstarted three decades ago and accelerated in the 2000s. Soaringfinancial leverage, especially in the global financial and U.S.consumer sectors, made collapse inevitable.

Chapter 5 The Results of Denial 123
The 2007-2009 recession and financial crisis started inearly 2007 with the subprime mortgage collapse, spread to WallStreet at mid-year, then moved to U.S. consumer retrenchment andglobal recession in late 2008. Investors thought every crisis wasthe last, and governments had no foresight or master plans.

Chapter 6 Slow Growth Ahead 159
Global slow growth in the next decade will result from U.S.consumer retrenchment, financial deleveraging, increased governmentregulation and involvement in major economies, low commodity pricesand the shift by advanced lands to fiscal restraint.

Chapter 7 No Help from Anywhere 225
Four more reasons for slow global growth: Risingprotectionism, continuing U.S. housing weakness, deflation and weakstate and local government spending.

Chapter 8 Chronic Worldwide Deflation 273
Deflation comes in seven varieties, but is fundamentallydriven by supply exceeding demand. Productivitysaturated new techand globalization will drive the good deflation of excess supplywhile slow economic growth introduces the bad deflation ofdeficient demand. As the two combine, I look for chronic pricedeclines of 2 to 3 percent annually.

Chapter 9 Monetary and Fiscal Excesses 311
The inflation-wary Fed will probably withdraw excessreserves if inflation looms. Federal deficits over $1trillion will persist as weak economic growth forces government jobcreation and helps push those dependent on government to two-thirdsof the population. Still, government stimuli will continue to onlyreplace private sector weakness at best.

Chapter 10 The Outlook for Stocks 339
Corporate earnings grow with GDP in the long run. With slowgrowth and deflation in prospect as well as falling P/Es, stockappreciation will be muted and below dividend yields. Historyfavors market timing over buy and hold, even more so in thisenvironment.

Chapter 11 Twelve Investments to Sell or Avoid 363
Big-ticket consumer purchases, consumer lenders,conventional home builders, collectibles, banks, junk securities,flailing companies, low tech equipment producers, commercial realestate, commodities, Chinese and other developing country stock andbonds, and Japanese securities.

Chapter 12 Ten Investments to Buy 425
Treasury bonds, dividend-payers, consumer staples, smallluxuries, the dollar, asset managers and advisers, factorybuilthouses and rental apartments, health care companies,productivity-enhancers and North American energy.

About the Author 493

Index 499

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Sort by: Showing all of 2 Customer Reviews
  • Posted July 14, 2011

    A digital read for $32.00 ???

    Mr. Shilling can finance his retirement from another source. $32.00 for an ebook is so far over the line it prevents additional commnet

    1 out of 2 people found this review helpful.

    Was this review helpful? Yes  No   Report this review
  • Anonymous

    Posted January 1, 2011

    No text was provided for this review.

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