Age of Migration

The Guilford Press

Chapter One

The post-Cold War period began with a rush of optimism about democracy, capitalism and the prospect for humanity. Many viewed globalization as irreversible. Political scientists, sociologists and economists wrote about the demise of national states, the necessity of adaptation to market forces and the imperative of global democratization. Then, in 2001, 19 terrorists flew three fuel-laden, hijacked planes into the World Trade Centre in Manhattan and the Pentagon in Washington and the world changed forever. Or did it?

One of the defining features of the post-Cold War era has been the growing saliency of international migration in all areas of the world. International population movements constitute a key dynamic within globalization - a complex process which intensified from the mid-1970s onward. The most striking features of globalization are the growth of cross-border flows of various kinds, including investment, trade, cultural products, ideas and people; and the proliferation of transnational networks with nodes of control in multiple locations (Castells, 1996; Held et al., 1999). At its core, globalization results in increasedtransnationalism: behaviour or institutions which simultaneously affect more than one state. The terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001 in fact constituted transnational political behaviour, as those perpetrating it were aliens engaging in violence against mainly civilian targets in another state in order to achieve political goals. Al-Qaida can be seen as an extremely effective transnational network, with multiple nodes of control.

One of the key analytical questions to be asked about '9/11' (as US observers have come to label the 2001 episode) is: how did it affect international migration? That one should feel compelled to ask such a question suggests the significance of the inquiry that informs this book. It is only recently that international population movements have been viewed as so significant that they warrant high-level scrutiny. In the post-9/11 environment, the central arguments informing this inquiry take on new urgency.

After the initial wave of euphoria over the end of the Cold War, the new era became marked by enormous change and uncertainty. Several states imploded and the very nature of warfare changed from violence waged between states to fighting within the boundaries of a state (UNHCR, 2000b: 277; Kaldor, 2001). About 90 per cent of conflicts in the post-Cold War era have not involved classic conventional warfare between states and many of these have created large numbers of internally displaced persons or IDPs. Entire regions in Africa, Europe, Latin America and Central Asia verged on anarchy and ruin. Yet, at the same time, democratic institutions, liberal economic strategies and regional integration, although still challenged, have now become globally ascendant. The ambivalent nature of the post-Cold War period can be seen in the juxtaposition of global human rights norms with episodes of horrific savagery involving mass killings and expulsions of entire populations.

For some observers, the world at the dawn of the twenty-first century is one in the throes of systemic transformation. The global order based on sovereign national states is giving way to something new. However, the contours of the emerging new order are unclear. Hope and optimism coexist with gloom and despair. Other observers doubt that fundamental change can or will occur. The nation-state system still endures despite the growth in the power of global markets, multilateralism and regional integration. National states command the loyalties of most human beings and millions have fought and died for them in recent memory.

These contradictory trends and notions comprise the backdrop to the unfolding drama that has captured the attention of peoples and leaders: the emergence of international migration as a force for social transformation. While movements of people across borders have shaped states and societies since time immemorial, what is distinctive in recent years is their global scope, their centrality to domestic and international politics and their enormous economic and social consequences. Migration processes may become so entrenched and resistant to governmental control that new political forms will emerge. This would not necessarily entail the disappearance of national states; indeed that prospect appears remote. However, novel forms of interdependence, transnational societies and bilateral and regional cooperation are rapidly transforming the lives of millions of people and inextricably weaving together the fate of state and society. Major determinants of historical change are rarely profoundly changed by any single event. Rather, singular events like 9/11 reflect the major dynamics and determinants of their time. It is scarcely coincidental that migration figured so centrally in the chain of events leading up to the terrorist attacks.

For the most part the growth of transnational society and politics, of which international migration is a dynamic, is a beneficial process. But it is neither inevitably nor inherently so. Indeed, international migration is frequently a cause and effect of various forms of conflict. Major events underscore why this is so and why 9/11 represented a culmination of trends and patterns rather than a new departure. Two cases, which are treated in greater detail later, suffice to illustrate.

Strife in Algeria pitting Islamists against a military-controlled government spilled over to France in the mid-1990s. Islamic radicals bombed subways and trains, and one unit commandeered a plane and threatened to fly it into a major public building because the French government was aiding the Algerian government in its counter-insurgency campaign. The menace posed by Islamic rebels infiltrating into France or mobilizing support among the large population of Algerians living in France or from French citizens of Algerian Muslim background, clearly ranked as France's central national security issue by 1995.

Likewise, in Germany, the Kurdish insurgency against the Turkish government spilled over to German soil in the 1990s. The Kurdish Workers Party declared that it was waging a two-front war against both Turkey and Germany, because the German government was siding with the Turks. German security analysts estimated that there were thousands of Kurdish Workers Party members among the 2-million-plus Turkish citizens living in Germany. By the mid-1990s, political violence involving Kurds became the central national security preoccupation of the German government. Meanwhile, Turkish political scientists sympathetic to the Turkish government regarded Turkish Islamist activities on German soil as constituting a grave threat to the Turkish state.

Such events were linked to growing international migration and to the problems of living together in one society for culturally and socially diverse ethnic groups. These developments in turn were related to fundamental economic, social and political transformations that shape the post-Cold War period. Millions of people are seeking work, a new home or simply a safe place to live outside their countries of birth. For many less-developed countries, emigration is one aspect of the social crisis which accompanies integration into the world market and modernization. Population growth and the 'green revolution' in rural areas lead to massive surplus populations. People move to burgeoning cities, where employment opportunities are inadequate and social conditions miserable. Massive urbanization outstrips the creation of jobs in the early stages of industrialization. Some of the previous rural-urban migrants embark on a second migration, seeking to improve their lives by moving to newly-industrializing countries in the South or to highly-developed countries in the North.

The movements take many forms: people migrate as manual workers, highly-qualified specialists, entrepreneurs, refugees or as family members of previous migrants. Whether the initial intention is temporary or permanent movement, many migrants become settlers. Migratory networks develop, linking areas of origin and destination, and helping to bring about major changes in both. Migrations can change demographic, economic and social structures, and bring a new cultural diversity, which often brings into question national identity.

This book is about contemporary international migrations, and the way they are changing societies. The perspective is international: large-scale movements of people arise from the accelerating process of global integration. Migrations are not an isolated phenomenon: movements of commodities and capital almost always give rise to movements of people. Global cultural interchange, facilitated by improved transport and the proliferation of print and electronic media, also leads to migration. International migration is not an invention of the late twentieth century, nor even of modernity in its twin guises of capitalism and colonialism. Migrations have been part of human history from the earliest times. However, international migration has grown in volume and significance since 1945 and most particularly since the mid-1980s. Migration ranks as one of the most important factors in global change.

There are several reasons to expect what we term the age of migration to endure: growing inequalities in wealth between the North and the South are likely to impel increasing numbers of people to move in search of better living standards; political, ecological and demographic pressures may force many people to seek refuge outside their own countries; increasing political or ethnic conflict in a number of regions could lead to future mass flights; and the creation of new free trade areas will cause movements of labour, whether or not this is intended by the governments concerned. States around the world will be increasingly affected by international migration, either as receiving societies, lands of emigration, or both.

No one knows exactly how many international migrants there are. A report by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) claimed that the number of migrants in the world had doubled between 1965 and 2000, from 75 million to 150 million (IOM, 2000b). By 2002, the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) estimated that 185 million people had lived outside their country of birth for at least 12 months - just over 2 per cent of the world's population (Crossette, 2002b). Previous epochs have also been characterized by massive migrations. Between 1846 and 1939, some 59 million people left Europe, mainly for major areas of settlement in North and South America, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa (Stalker, 2000: 4). Comparison of data on pre-First World War international migration with statistics on contemporary population movements suggests remarkable continuity in volume between the two periods (Zlotnik, 1999).

However, there are great unknowns, such as the number of illegal immigrants. UN statistics on contemporary international migration reflect statistics compiled by member states concerning legal migration. Yet credible statistics are lacking in many areas of the world. Moreover, there are many reasons to believe that illegal migration has increased sharply in recent decades. Hence, the contention that the late modern world has not experienced a remarkable upsurge in international migration, based upon comparison of statistics for the two periods, must be rejected. Much contemporary international migration is simply unrecorded and not reflected in official statistics. In fiscal year 1998, 660 477 persons were recorded by the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) as having legally immigrated to the USA (Kramer, 1999: 1). However, analysis of the 2000 census strongly suggested that some 9 million aliens lived illegally in the USA, with between 200 000 and 300 000 new arrivals each year. Similarly, between 250 000 and 300 000 illegal entrants are estimated to arrive in Northern Europe each year (Widgren, 1994).

There were 15 million refugees and asylum seekers in need of protection and assistance in 2001 (USCR: 2002). This total can be compared to 16 million in 1993, suggesting that international population movements are neither inexorable nor unidirectional. Successful repatriation policies and the end of conflict in certain areas resulted in a decrease in overall numbers between 1993 and 2001. However, concurrently, the number of persons who were in a refugee-like situation, but who were not officially recognized as refugees or asylum seekers grew rapidly after 1990, as did the number of IDPs. The number of persons applying for asylum in Western Europe, Australia, Canada and the USA combined rose from 90 000 in 1983 to a peak of 829 000 in 1992. Following restrictive measures, asylum-seeker applications fell to 480 000 in 1995, but then began to grow, reaching 535 000 in 2000. Other types of forced migrants, who remain within their country of origin, include large numbers displaced by development projects (such as dams, airports and industrial areas), but inadequately resettled. An estimated 10 million people are displaced each year in this way, and many of them may move on to become international migrants (Cernea and McDowell, 2000).

The vast majority of human beings reside in their countries of birth. Voluntarily taking up residence abroad or becoming a victim of expulsion is the exception not the rule. Yet the impact of international migration flows is frequently much greater than is suggested by figures such as the IOM estimates. People tend to move not individually, but in groups. Their departure may have considerable consequences for social and economic relationships in the area of origin. Remittances (money sent home) by migrants may improve living standards and encourage economic development. In the country of immigration, settlement is closely linked to employment opportunity and is almost always concentrated in industrial and urban areas, where the impact on receiving communities is considerable. Migration thus affects not only the migrants themselves, but the sending and receiving societies as a whole. There can be few people in either industrial or less-developed countries today who do not have personal experience of migration and its effects; this universal experience has become a hallmark of the age of migration.

Contemporary migrations: general trends

International migration is part of a transnational revolution that is reshaping societies and politics around the globe. The differing ways in which this has affected the worlds' regions is a major theme throughout this book.

Continues...

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Excerpted from Age of Migration by Stephen Castles Mark J. Miller Copyright © 2003 by The Guilford Press. Excerpted by permission.
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