An Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting: With Applications of SAS® and SPSS® / Edition 1

by Robert Alan Yaffee, Monnie McGee

Overview

Providing a clear explanation of the fundamental theory of time series analysis and forecasting, this book couples theory with applications of two popular statistical packages—SAS and SPSS. The text examines moving average, exponential smoothing, Census X-11 deseasonalization, ARIMA, intervention, transfer function, and autoregressive error models and has brief discussions of ARCH and GARCH models. The book features treatments of forecast improvement with regression and autoregression combination models and model and forecast evaluation, along with a sample size analysis for common time series models to attain adequate statistical power. The careful linkage of the theoretical constructs with the practical considerations involved in utilizing the statistical packages makes it easy for the user to properly apply these techniques.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780127678702
Publisher:	Elsevier Science
Publication date:	04/27/2000
Series:	Time Series
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	560
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x (d)

About the Author

Robert A. Yaffee, Ph.D., is a Senior Research Consultant/Statistican in the Statistics and Social Science Group of New York University's Academic Computing Facility as well as a Research Scientist/Statistician at the State University of New York Health Science Center in Brooklyn's Division of Geriatric Psychiatry. He received his Ph.D. in political science from Graduate Faculty of Political and Social Research of The New School for Social Research. He serves as a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Gambling Behavior and was on the Research Faculty of Columbia University's School of Public Health before coming to NYU. He also taught in the Statistical packages in the Computer Science Department and the Empirical Research and Advanced Statistics in the Sociology Department of Hunter College. He has published in the fields of statistics, medical research, and psychology.

Monnie McGee, Ph.D. is an Assistant Professor of Mathematics and Statistics at Hunter College. She received her Ph.D. from Rice University and has worked as a bio-statistical consultant for The Rockefeller University and as a computational statistician for Electricité de France.

Table of Contents

Preface.
Introduction and Overview.
Extrapolative Models and Decomposition Models.
Introduction to Box-Jenkins Time Series Analysis.
The Basic ARIMA Model.
Seasonal ARIMA Models.
Estimation and Diagnosis.
Metadiagnosis and Forecasting. Intervention Analysis.
Transfer Function Models.
Autoregressive Error Models.
A Review of Model and Forecast Evaluation.
M. McGee, Power Analysis and Sample Size Determination for Well-Known Time Series Models.
Appendix A.
Glossary.
Index.

Editorial Reviews

"Robert Yaffee has performed an invaluable service to students of time series analysis by preparing an introduction to methods for analyzing time series data that includes examples drawn from the social sciences, and demonstrates how to program the procedures in SPSS and SAS. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting will be a standard reference for years to come." —DAVID F. GREENBERG, New York University, New York

From the Publisher

This advanced textbook examines the principal approaches to the analysis of time series processes and their forecasting. Yaffee (New York University) covers moving average, exponential smoothing, decomposition, ARIMA, intervention, transfer function, regression, error correction, and autoregressive error models. No exercises, but a glossary is provided. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

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