Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations / Edition 2

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Overview

This collaboration between GU Press and Georgetown's Center for Peace and Security Studies is an exposition and critique of US intelligence analysis. Drawing on the individual and collective experience of numerous intelligence experts, all of whom were career intelligence officers and some who now teach intelligence in the classroom, the 20 chapters explain how analysis has been conducted and how it can improve. There are six parts. The early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the middle of the 20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, and, ultimately, its mixed track record. Middle parts examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of politicization, analytical bias, and denial and deception. (Note distinction between Helms and Casey.) Why do analysts make mistakes? How can they perform better? In the final parts of the book contributors propose new ways to address perennial issues in warning analysis and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense; they suggest new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis. This is key: The editors want to ensure that intelligence analysis becomes a professional discipline, more than a political consideration, with increased training and increased accountability. The book, which includes internal references to fellow chapters, is rife with examples of US intelligence successes and failures throughout the past 65 years: Pearl Harbor, the Cuban Missile Crisis, Vietnam, Central America, and, of course, 9/11, Afghanistan, and the Iraq WMD justification for the current war.
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781589012011
  • Publisher: Georgetown University Press
  • Publication date: 2/28/2014
  • Edition description: REV
  • Edition number: 2
  • Pages: 352
  • Sales rank: 189,283
  • Product dimensions: 6.90 (w) x 9.90 (h) x 1.00 (d)

Meet the Author

Roger Z. George is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and is currently a senior analyst at the CIA's Global Futures Partnership. He is a career CIA intelligence analyst who has served at the Departments of State and Defense and has been the National Intelligence Officer for Europe. He has taught at the National War College and other private universities and is coeditor of Intelligence and the National Security Strategist: Enduring Issues and Challenges.

James B. Bruce is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He is a retired career CIA intelligence analyst who has served with the National Intelligence Council, within the Directorates of Intelligence and Operations, and has worked extensively with other intelligence community organizations. He has taught at the National War College and has authored numerous studies on intelligence and deception.

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Table of Contents

PrefaceIntroduction: Intelligence Analysis -- The Emergence of a Discipline James B. Bruce and Roger Z. GeorgePart One: The Analytic Tradition 1. The Evolution of Intelligence Analysis John H. Hedley

2. The Track Record: CIA Analysis from 1950-2000 Richard J. Kerr

3. Is Intelligence Analysis a Discipline? Rebecca Fisher and Rob Johnston

Part Two: The Policy--Analyst Relationship4. Serving the National Policymaker John McLaughlin

5. The Policymaker's Perspective: Transparency and Partnership James B. Steinberg

6. Intelligence Analysis: Between "Politicization" and Irrelevance Gregory F. Treverton Part Three: Enduring Challenges7. The Art of Strategy and Intelligence Roger Z. George

8. Foreign Denial and Deception: Analytical Imperatives James B. Bruce and Michael Bennett

9. U.S. Military Intelligence Analysis: Old and New Challenges David Thomas Part Four: Diagnosis and Prescription 10. Why Bad Things Happen to Good Analysts Jack Davis11. Making Analysis More Reliable: Why Epistemology Matters to Intelligence James B. Bruce

12. The Missing Link: The Analyst-Collector Relationship James B. Bruce

Part Five: Leading Analytic Change13. Managing Analysis in the Information Age John C. Gannon

14. Intelligence in Transition: Analysis after September 11 and Iraq Mark M. Lowenthal15. The New Analysis Carmen A. Medina

Part Six: New Frontiers of Analysis 16. Computer-Aided Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Richards J. Heuer Jr.

17. Predictive Warning: Teams, Networks, and Scientific Method Timothy J. Smith

18. Homeland Security Intelligence: Rationale, Requirements, and Current Status Bruce Berkowitz

Conclusion: The Age of Analysis Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce

Glossary of Analytic TermsContributorsIndex

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