Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism

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Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism Pub. Date: 1/29/2009 Publisher: Princeton University Press

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Overview

The global financial crises of recent years have made it painfully clear that psychological forces can imperil the wealth of nations. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, "animal spirits" drive financial events worldwide. In this book, acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller present a serious alternative to the standard economic theory that has failed to account for these essential human factors, and provide a radical new way to think about the economy.

Looking back to the prevalent despondence preceding the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery-which led John Maynard Keynes to coin the term "animal spirits"-Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking. In a new preface, they describe why our economic troubles may linger for some time-unless we are prepared to take further, decisive action.

What People Are Saying

Diane Coyle

Animal Spirits makes a very timely and significant contribution to the development of a new dominant paradigm for economics that acknowledges the imperfections of human decision making, a need which the panic in financial markets makes all too apparent. I am not aware of any other book like this one.
— Diane Coyle, author of "The Soulful Science: What Economists Really Do and Why It Matters"

Perry

Akerlof and Shiller explore how animal spirits contribute to the performance of the macroeconomy. The range of issues they cover is broad, including the business cycle, inflation and unemployment, the swings in financial markets and real estate, the existence of poverty, and the way monetary policy works. This book is provocative and persuasive.
— George L. Perry, Brookings Institution

Snower

This book is dynamite. It is a powerful, cogent, and convincing call for a fundamental reevaluation of basic economic principles. It presents a refreshingly new understanding of important economic phenomena that standard economic theory has been unable to explain convincingly. Animal Spirits should help set in motion an intellectual revolution that will change the way we think about economic depressions, unemployment, poverty, financial crises, real estate swings, and much more.
— Dennis J. Snower, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Solow

This book is a sorely needed corrective. Animal Spirits is an important—maybe even a decisive—contribution at a difficult juncture in macroeconomic theory.
— Robert M. Solow, Nobel Prize-winning economist

Editorial Reviews

Bloomberg News

[A] lively new financial crisis book.
— James Pressley

Daily Kos

With Animal Spirits we hone in on how incentives and narratives can be created to channel the human psychological factor into collectively healthy directions, and how to be aware of the fictions we tell ourselves about how we wish the world and greed and financial security worked. [Animal Spirits] sheds light on complex issues and leaves readers with a better grasp of undercurrents and—most importantly—a rediscovered belief in principles of common sense and caution.

More Reviews (33) Fewer Reviews

Delta Sky

[Animal Spirits] is a short, thoughtful and sometimes simplistic book that calls for a different vision of economics. . . . Animal Spirits may well be a GPS system for a changing economic future.
— Gene Rebeck

Edmonton Journal

Animal Spirits is succinct, clear and lively.
— Brad Willis

Investment Professional

Ideologists are likely to dismiss this volume. However, for other readers—whether their perspectives are quantitative or qualitative—Animal Spirits may fill a troubling gap in existing investigations of the causes of booms and busts.
— Thomas H. Wilkins

Irish Times

Animal Spirits is exceptional in showing how economics can be accessible and relevant in dealing with this awesome challenge.

JASSS

[T]his very book seems to be one of the 'must-reads' in the Obama administration.
— Andreas Ernst

Midway Review

Akerlof and Shiller's book is an interesting and thought-provoking attempt to understand how underlying human psychology drives the economy. The questions they pose and the examples they provide should be read by any economist seeking to better understand the differences between what economics predict will occur, and how people actually behave as individuals and within larger groups.
— Dmitri Leybman

Mint

As George Akerlof and Robert Shiller show in a new book Animal Spirits, this is no freak storm. It may mark the long-awaited encounter between psychology and economics. . . . Akerlof and Shiller's book is probably the first macroeconomic exploration of the subject that is accessible to those interested in the subject but who don't have the academic training to understand the detailed argument.

Nature

Akerlof and Shiller remind us that emotional and intangible factors—such as confidence in institutions, illusions about the nature of money or a sense of being treated unfairly—can affect how people make decisions about borrowing, spending, saving and investing. Animal Spirits is an affectionate tribute to the man [John Maynard Keynes] whose ideas, unfashionable for the past 30 years, have resurged.

New York Observer

Animal Spirits is a welcome addition to our Hannitized national economic debate, in which anyone who advocates government spending risks being labeled a socialist. . . . Animal Spirits is most compelling when the authors summon all the key behavioral patterns to explain vast, complex phenomena such as the Great Depression. . . . Animal Spirits . . . [is] aimed squarely at the general reader, and rightly so: Macroeconomics is now everybody's business—the banks are playing with our money.
— Andrew Rosenblum

New York Review of Books

Akerlof and Shiller succeed, too, in demonstrating that conventional macroeconomic analyses often fail because they omit not just readily observable facts like unemployment and institutions such as credit markets but also harder-to-document behavioral patterns that fall within the authors' notion of 'animal spirits.' Confidence plainly matters, and so does the absence of it. When the public mood swings from exuberance to anxiety, or even fear, the effect on asset prices as well as on economic activity outside the financial sector can be large.
— Benjamin M. Friedman

New Yorker

There is barely a page of Animal Spirits without a fascinating fact or insight.
— John Lanchester

Orgtheory.net

Akerlof and Shiller take psychological research seriously, and it's refreshing to see that they're not trying to reinvent the wheel. . . . The book is an interesting read and would probably be very useful for an undergrad class that needs an introduction to behavioral economics. A & S do a nice job of moving between the theoretical and the practical, the empirical and the implied. The writing is accessible and the topic is more than relevant to our current economic situation.

Portfolio.com

The new book from George Akerlof and Robert Shiller, Animal Spirits, has been getting a lot of press of late, and quite rightly: it's really good. It's not only very readable; it also offers a compelling vision of a very different type of macroeconomics—one where behavioral considerations are front and center, rather than simply providing what Clive Crook calls 'ad hoc modifications' to the standard, ridiculously oversimplified and unrealistic, model. . . . [I]f you read only one book on this subject, make it Animal Spirits.
— Felix Salmon

SeekingAlpha

My book of the week is an easy one this time around: it's Animal Spirits, by Robert Shiller and George Akerlof. . . . Admittedly, I'm biased as a fan of both Shiller's and Akerlof's. Believe me, however, when I say the blessedly brief Animal Spirits is a thoughtful and well-written look at how economics discarded psychology and lost its way on the trip from Adam Smith, through Keynesianism, to laissez-faire. The book puts the current crisis in a useful economic context, with consistent and practical selections from behavioral finance illuminating everything along the way. . . . Highly recommended.
— Paul Kedrosky

Shanghai Daily

The authors are right in pointing out the inadequacy of conventional economics in understanding, not to say addressing, today's economic woes, because they fail to take into account these animal spirits.
— Wan Lixin

The Age

In an intriguing new book, Animal Spirits, US economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller argue that psychology plays a far bigger role in determining economic outcomes than economists realize—and that, broadly speaking, people get what they expect. If we think good times are ahead, we act confidently in a way that creates them. And if we expect a downturn ahead, we act defensively and unwittingly ensure that's what we get.
— Tim Colebatch

The American Prospect

In saluting Keynes' quip, Akerlof and Shiller argue that much of the story is in the unreliability and incompleteness of supposedly rational behavior—the micro-foundation of the free-market model. They contend that modern economics, even self-described Keynesian economics, has given short shrift to this core behavioral insight. . . . Their best chapter is on the limited capacity of central banks to prevent or cure calamities.
— Robert Kuttner

The Australian

Another contribution to the human-nature-ensures-economics-is-irrational school of thought. But, unlike many of the rants against people trying to make an honest profit, this is a measured examination of how the present crisis is explained in economic terms. And so it should be. George Akerlof is a Nobel prizewinner, Robert Shiller teaches at Yale and is the author of Irrational Exuberance, which should give you an idea of this one's approach. This fascinating work uses economics to explain real-life issues, such as real estate price cycles, to key policy problems, such as the relationship between inflation and employment.
— Stephen Matchett

The Business Economist

Animal Spirits presents a rigorous case for the importance of 'confidence multipliers' and 'stories' in explaining recent market behaviour and of 'fairness' and 'money illusion' in preventing wages from falling in recessions to the market-clearing rate. Written in an accessible style, the book provides a very useful practical primer for policy-makers, practitioners and academics on many aspects of the current crisis. The authors also make a compelling theoretical case for macroeconomists taking more account of the role of non-economic motives and irrational responses.
— Richard Bronk

The Economist

[T]his book is rather more than the usual lament about the failings of economics. Its authors are two of the discipline's leading lights. . . . Most of the time, the unrealistic assumption of rationality serves economists fairly well. They should, however, be more prepared to depart from it, especially in times like these—even if that makes behaviour more difficult to describe in elegant equations. Messrs Akerlof and Shiller have therefore done their profession a service.

The Globe & Mail

What Sigmund Freud did for the study of the mind, George Akerlof and Robert Shiller are doing for economics. Freud, healer or fake—take your pick—built a career and a field of medicine on the idea that people are driven by irrational forces. Akerlof, professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley and winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics, and Shiller, the Yale economist who is the eminence grise of the housing meltdown, argue that massive government market intervention programs are the only way to turn fear into enthusiasm for spending and investing—the 'animal spirits' that are an essential part of recovery. . . . Akerlof and Shiller pick up on the idea of the emotional impetus to investment. With elegant reasoning and lovely prose, they demonstrate that we'll all be wallowing in misery unless governments around world, especially the in the G7 nations, help to return markets to optimism. . . . Animal Spirits is a fine discussion of the last few decades of development of economic theory, especially monetary economics.
— Andrew Allentuck

The National

George Akerlof and Rober Shiller's Animal Spirits is a plea to start believing our lying eyes rather than the model. Rather than try to explain away the apparent irrationality in human behaviour, Akerlof and Shiller say we need to try to understand it and shape policies that take it into account. . . . The core message of Animal Spirits is that we should stop trying to cage the spirits and instead admit their central importance. Specifically, this means that world governments will need to intervene forcefully in the current economic crisis with both fiscal stimulus and direct measures to stimulate lending—to restore some of the confidence that the crash has sapped.
— Matthew Yglesias

Times Higher Education

[T]he authors do a superb job of conveying the importance of bevaioural economics to a non-specialist audience. They increase our understanding of recent economic events and they show that animal spirits affect how governments should manage the economy.
— Natalie Gold

Wilson Quarterly

Animal Spirits, which attempts to leverage the insights of behavioral economics to reanimate the vision of John Maynard Keynes, is perfectly timed for the present moment.
— Nick Schulz

Louis Uchitelle

Until now, behavioral economics has focused mainly on a variety of disparate traits that chip away at the assumption of rationality embedded in mainstream theory. A young person, for example, fails to join a 401(k) plan, even one subsidized by his employer, although if he were rational and fully informed, he would certainly sign up. What Akerlof and Shiller do is to highlight this sort of finding, packaging it with numerous other psychological insights into a half-dozen broad maxims that permanently alter the concept of rational behavior. And their book takes their case not just to economists, but also to the general reader. It is short (176 pages of text) and easy enough for laymen to understand (most of the time).
—The New York Times

BusinessWeek

The two superstars have produced a truly innovative and bold work that attempts to show how psychological factors explain the origins of the current mess and offer clues for possible solutions. At a time when plummeting confidence is dragging down the market and the economy, the authors' focus on the psychological aspect of economics is incredibly important.
— Michael Mandel

Cato Journal

[T]he authors are . . . [b]oth . . . credited with a deep understanding of economic history, the history of economic thought, and today's global economic environment. That makes this book a 'must read' for anyone seeking insights into recent economic events and seeking ways of crafting government policies to prevent another similar economic downturn.
— Jagadeesh Gokhale

Challenge

A reader would be right in thinking that Animal Spirits is an especially appealing but provocative appetizer that stimulates the interest of unorthodox and anti-orthodox economists everywhere to rewrite macroeconomics as if humans beings with their messy emotions, group dynamics, and all the rest really exist. Readers will also find Animal Spirits an invitation for society to ignore new classical economics in the interest of effective and decent economic policy.
— Marcellus Andrews

Financial Times

An influential Democrat who was also one of the world's top-ten, highest-paid hedge fund managers last year thinks he knows which book is at the top of the White House reading list this spring: Animal Spirits, the powerful new blast of behavioural economics from Nobel prize-winner George Akerlof and Yale economist Robert Shiller.

Money Science

Animal Spirits offers a road map for reversing the financial misfortunes besetting us today. Read it and learn how leaders can channel animal spirits—the powerful forces of human psychology that are afoot in the world economy today.

New York Times Book Review

Akerlof and Shiller are the first to try to rework economic theory for our times. The effort itself makes their book a milestone. . . . And their book takes their case not just to economists, but also to the general reader. It is short (176 pages of text) and easy enough for laymen to understand.
— Louis Uchitelle

Time

Animal Spirits [is] . . . the new must-read in Obamaworld.
— Michael Grunwald

Time.com's Swampland

White House Budget Director Peter Orszag is a numbers guy, a propeller head as President Obama would say. But as David Von Drehle and I write in this week's print version of Time, Orszag has been spending his time recently reading not about spreadsheets, but about psychology. In particular, he has been reading a new book by the economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller called Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives The Economy, and Why It Matters For Global Capitalism. . . . We are, it turns out, slaves to the Animal Spirits. They have brought us to our knees. And now they are the only things that can save us.
— Michael Scherer

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780691145921
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Publication date: 2/21/2010
Pages: 256
Sales rank: 199,306
Product dimensions: 5.40 (w) x 8.10 (h) x 0.90 (d)

Meet the Author

George A. Akerlof is the Daniel E. Koshland Sr. Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley. He was awarded the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics. Robert J. Shiller is the best-selling author of "Irrational Exuberance" and "The Subprime Solution" (both Princeton). He is the Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics at Yale University.

Preface to the Paperback Edition vii

Preface xxi

Acknowledgments xxvii

Introduction 1

Part 1 Animal Spirits

1 Confidence and Its Multipliers 2

2 Fairness 19

3 Corruption and Bad Faith 26

4 Money Illusion 41

5 Stories 51

Part 2 Eight Questions and Their Answers

6 Why Do Economies Fall into Depression? 59

7 Why Do Central Bankers Have Power over the Economy (Insofar as They Do)? 74

Postscript to Chapter seven The Current Financial Crisis: What Is to Be Done? 86

8 Why Are There People Who Cannot Find a Job? 97

9 Why Is There a Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run? 107

10 Why Is Saving for the Future So Arbitrary? 116

11 Why Are Financial Prices and Corporate Investments So Volatile? 131

12 Why Do Real Estate Markets Go through Cycles? 149

13 Why Is There Special Poverty among Minorities? 157

14 Conclusion 167

Notes 177

References 199

Index 219

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GFF

Posted November 16, 2009

more from this reviewer

A fresh perspective

Akerlof and Schiller give us a fresh look at Keynesian applications which might help us to find solutions to our current economic problems. The greater understanding they bring to the discussion should help us to approach these solutions with less fear.

2 out of 4 people found this review helpful.
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PrudentMan

Posted August 1, 2009

Psychobabble & Collectivism

The usual collectivist, warmed over Keynesian thinking that has never worked. This is another re-writing of history and a weak attempt to smooth over FDR's turning a weak depression in to a deeper one only to survive because Hitler invaded Poland and all productive economies, but the U.S., were virtually destroyed.

Throw in the Ivy League Psychobabble and you get an intellectual dishonest attempt to cast dispersions on the rational economic theory of rewarding productivity and individuality. This is the type of thinking that has sent the U.S into becoming a second rate economic power as, unfortunately, their thinking holds credence in a government that has designed a legal system that destroys incentive. Much to the authors chagrin and disappointment there are absolutes whether they wish to acknowledge them or not.

Although I thank the academics, politicians and bureaucrats for having my children pay for my health care at the same time I have to apologize to my children for allowing what has happened to this country and the debt they have inherited. The authors seem to think this debt is only psychological.

Does any serious, honest person believe that such a system of rewarding consumptive parasites can produce a productive middle class? The entitlement generation wants to make money, not earn it; have a job, but not work. They confuse Crony Capitalism with Free Enterprise which aids and abets the collectivists.

Unfortunately the authors get paid to teach this nonsense. Only on campus would they get a steady pay check. They should give the proceeds from this book to the Veterans of Foreign Wars, VA or American Legion to recompense for the damage they are trying to inflict on a country many have fought and sacrificed for.

2 out of 6 people found this review helpful.
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The_Hibernator

Posted December 5, 2010

more from this reviewer

Not for beginners

I expected Animal Spirits to be a macroeconomics book for the "popular reader." Although I am popular, and a reader, I didn't fully understand it. However, I got some good information out of it anyway-info that I'm sure will build a knowledge base on something I know little about. As I understand it, the premise is that the US/world economy is driven by "animal spirits," a force which leads people not to think rationally about money, but emotionally. Thus, sometimes the general populace will feel happy and safe about the economy and spend a lot, thus boosting the economy. And sometimes they will feel scared and unsafe, so they don't invest or spend, promoting a recession.

If you're looking for a book that explains behavioral economics to people who don't understand, this is not the book for you. Since I didn't understand it, I can't say whether it's any good for people who DO understand what the writers are talking about.

1 out of 1 people found this review helpful.
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RolfDobelli

Posted April 20, 2009

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Rethinking economics' fundamental principles

Nobel laureate George A. Akerlof and prescient Yale economics professor Robert J. Shiller explain the role of human psychology in markets. They say conventional economic theory assigns too much weight to the role of reason in economic decision making, and too little to the role of irrational emotional and psychological factors. That insight would have been novel a few years back, but numerous other authors have made the same point, though few with such sterling credentials. Having asserted their beliefs and offered evidence about the power of emotions, or "animal spirits," the authors prescribe curative policies though they don't always illuminate their proposals' full real-world impact. Akerlof and Shiller's distinguished reputations command attention, and getAbstract confirms that their book is worthwhile reading. Yet, those who know the authors' bodies of work may wish for even more insight.

1 out of 4 people found this review helpful.
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BruiserMD

Posted February 28, 2010

more from this reviewer

A Book for all Undergraduate Economists and anyone who wants to understand often ignored factors that really impact the economy.

Well written and intelligent discussion that non-economists and economists alike can understand. Written in terms anyone can understand, yet this book should have been required reading before I received my undergraduate degree in economics.
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Econo

Posted February 6, 2010

Disappointingly Thin

Quick, easy read--making the case that human irrationality and group dynamics drive market valuations, not fundamentals. As the authors make clear, this line of thought has been around a long time. Many examples of animal spirits driving markets are presented.

So, the book dismantles the idea that markets are efficient and rational. No predictive model is given as a replacement.

A better read with more interesting historical detail is Niall Furguson's Ascent of Money. One achieves the same result along a much more interesting path.
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hrizk

Posted August 26, 2009

I Also Recommend:

Excellent read

Human nature often collide with logic and reason. Akerlof and Schiller explore this issue in their excellent book and show that animal spirit can result in unexpected economical downturn and financial hardships. As the authors conclude, the effect of the animal spirit could be offset by tighter regulation and little nudge that can have positive impact on human behavior.

0 out of 1 people found this review helpful.
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jakeCL

Posted April 20, 2009

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EXCELLENT READING

Very informative book. It provides an excellent overview of the current and historical economic stresses for the individual who is not well versed in economics. As a person who has very little education in economics (only class was in high school,40 yrs ago) I was very pleased with the presentation.

0 out of 1 people found this review helpful.
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sergevansteenkiste

Posted March 24, 2009

more from this reviewer

Ideas and Feelings Counterbalancing Rationality and Efficiency in Economic Matters

George Akerlof and Robert Shiller convincingly demonstrate that people's ideas and feelings (their animal spirits) play an important role in understanding significant economic events. Economic decisions are not based solely on rational, efficient behavior.

Akerlof and Shiller first explore the five different aspects of the animal spirits. The authors call them confidence, fairness, corruption and bad faith, money illusion (failure to add inflationary expectations into wage bargains and price setting), and stories (narratives).

After exploring these five aspects, Akerlof and Shiller examine how animal spirits have an important impact on a variety of economic factors such as unemployment rate, inflation rate, savings rates, stock prices, real estate prices, and multigenerational poverty among disadvantaged groups. The feedback loops that animal spirits create, help explain among other things why globalization to this day remains excessive and unstable.

To their credit, Akerlof and Shiller usually write in a style that makes complex concepts accessible to a wide audience. Whoever wants to know more about specific topics that both authors address, can look at the chapter notes and comprehensive references that are reproduced at the end of "Animal Spirits."

0 out of 1 people found this review helpful.
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