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Anticipating Surprise, originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts during the Cold War, has been declassified and condensed to provide wider audiences with an inside look at intelligence gathering and analysis for strategic warning. Cynthia Grabo defines the essential steps in the warning process, examines distinctive ingredients of the analytic method of intelligence gathering, and discusses the guidelines for assessing the meaning of gathered information. Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on America, intelligence collection and analysis has been hotly debated. In this book, Grabo suggests ways of improving warning assessments that better convey warnings to policymakers and military commanders who are responsible for taking appropriate action to avert disaster.
Chapter 1 Forward Chapter 2 Editor's Preface Chapter 3 Introduction Chapter 4 The Role of Warning Intelligence: General Nature of the Problem; What is Warning; Intentions versus Capabilities Chapter 5 Introduction to the Analytical Method: Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications; Fundamentals of Indications Analysis; Specifics of the Analytical Method Chapter 6 Military Indications and Warnings: The Nature of Military Indicators; Order-of-Battle Analysis in Crisis Situations; Logistics is the Queen of Battles; Other Factors in Combat Preparations Chapter 7 Political Factors for Warning: Ambiguity of Political Indicator; A Problem of Perception; Considerations in Political Warning Chapter 8 Warning from the Totality of Evidence: The Relative Weight of Political and Military Factors; Isolating the Critical Facts and Indications; Some Guidelines for Assessing the Meaning of Evidence; Reconstructing the Adversary's Decisionmaking Process Chapter 9 Surprise and Timing: Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise; Examples of Assessing Timing; Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence Chapter 10 The Problem of Deception: Infrequency and Neglect of Deception; Principals, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception; Types of Deception; What Can We Do About It? Chapter 11 Judgments and Policy: Facts Don't "Speak for Themselves"; What Do Top Consumers Need, and Want, to Know?; Intelligence in Support of Policy; Assessing Probabilities Chapter 12 Improving Warning Assessments: Some Conclusions: Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting; General Warning Principals; Most Frequent Impediments to Warning Chapter 13 Index