Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems

Overview

Climate variability has major impacts in many parts of the world, including Australia. Developments in understanding of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation Phenomenon have introduced some skill in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting. Can this skill be harnessed to advantage? Or do we just continue to observe these impacts? How does a decision-maker managing an agricultural or natural ecosystem modify decisions in response to a skillful, but imprecise, seasonal climate forecast? Using Australian experience...
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Overview

Climate variability has major impacts in many parts of the world, including Australia. Developments in understanding of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation Phenomenon have introduced some skill in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting. Can this skill be harnessed to advantage? Or do we just continue to observe these impacts? How does a decision-maker managing an agricultural or natural ecosystem modify decisions in response to a skillful, but imprecise, seasonal climate forecast? Using Australian experience as a basis, this book focuses on these questions in pursuing means to better manage climate risks. The state of the science in climate forecasting is reviewed before considering detailed examples of applications to:
  1. farm scale agricultural decisions (such as management of cropping and grazing systems);
  2. regional and national scale agricultural decisions (such as commodity trading and government policy); and
  3. natural systems (such as water resources, pests and diseases, and natural fauna).
Many of the examples highlight the participatory and inter-disciplinary approach required among decision-makers, resource systems scientists/analysts, and climate scientists to bring about the effective applications. The experiences discussed provide valuable insights beyond the geographical and disciplinary focus of this book. The book is ideally suited to professionals and postgraduate students in ecology, agricultural climatology, environmental planning, and climate science.
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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
'The book provides the first consolidated collection of R-D in this area, and while there is still a great deal to learn, the book represents a significant step towards achieving more widespread and prudent use of SCFs around the world. We therefore have no hesitation in recommending this book to those who work in the development, delivery, or application of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions and to meteorological service providers generally'
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82:10 (2001)
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Product Details

Table of Contents

Preface
Contributors
1 The Importance of climate variability and seasonal forecasting to the Australian economy 1
2 The relevance of seasonal climate forecasting to a rural producer 23
3 Understanding and predicting the world's climate system 29
4 A general systems approach to applying seasonal climate forecasts 51
5 The development and delivery of current seasonal climate forecasting capabilities in Australia 67
6 The potential for improved statistical seasonal climate forecasts 77
7 Global climatic models and their potential for seasonal climatic forecasting 89
8 Operational experience with climate model predictions 109
9 Stochastic down-scaling of general circulation model simulations 121
10 Statistical methods for deriving seasonal climate forecasts from GCM's 135
11 Using seasonal climate forecasts to manage dryland crops in northern Australia - Experiences from the 1997/98 seasons 149
12 The potential value of seasonal climate forecasting in managing croping systems 167
13 Comparing the value of seasonal climate forecasting systems in managing cropping systems 183
14 Managing climatic variability in Queensland's grazing lands - New approaches 197
15 Simulation of grazing strategies for beef production in north-east Queensland 227
16 Managing climate variability in grazing enterprises: A case study for Dalrymple shire, north-eastern Australia 253
17 Seasonal climate forecasting and the management of rangelands: Do production benefits translate into enterprise profits? 271
18 Building knowledge and skills to use seasonal climate forecasts in property management planning 291
19 Opportunities to improve the use of seasonal climate forecasts 309
20 Aussie GRASS: Australian grassland and rangeland assessment by spatial simulation 329
21 Using seasonal climate forecasts in forecasting the Australian wheat crop 351
22 Can seasonal climate forecasts predict movements in grain prices? 367
23 Climate variability, seasonal forecasting and invertebrate pests - The need for a synoptic view 381
24 ENSO regulation of Indo-Pacific green turtle populations 399
25 Streamflow variability, seasonal forecasting and water resources systems 409
26 The effect of climate on the incidence of vector-borne viral diseases in Australia: The potential value of seasonal forecasting 429
27 Applying seasonal climate forecasts in agricultural and natural ecosystems - a synthesis 453
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