Assessing the Threat: The Chinese Military and Taiwan's Security

Overview

Since at least the early 1950s, the entire Asia-Pacific region has struggled with the complicated and complex relationship between China and Taiwan —today the Taiwan question is considered a potential flashpoint for a much larger international conflict.

Bringing together experts from the United States and Taiwan, Assessing the Threat provides a comprehensive look at the dangers of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the latest advances in capabilities of the People's ...

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Overview

Since at least the early 1950s, the entire Asia-Pacific region has struggled with the complicated and complex relationship between China and Taiwan —today the Taiwan question is considered a potential flashpoint for a much larger international conflict.

Bringing together experts from the United States and Taiwan, Assessing the Threat provides a comprehensive look at the dangers of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the latest advances in capabilities of the People's Liberation Army, and China's security relationship with the United States and the Asia-Pacific. There is increasing concern that Beijing is steadily shifting the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait in its favor. Recent advances in Chinese air and naval power, along with changes in PLA doctrine, have the potential to weaken deterrence and destabilize the cross-strait military balance. At this critical juncture, there is not question that this issue requires sustained, detailed analysis and that many measures can and should be taken to reduce the threat of conflict between China, Taiwan, and the United States. Assessing the threat offers such analysis as well as concrete suggestions and crisis management practices for government and military leaders in Washington, D.C., Beijing, and Taipei.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

"Thorough, stimulating and often provocative, the chapters in this volume provide a unique assessment of the complexities surrounding Taiwan's security. They examine the logic driving China's security policy and emerging military capabilities, strategy and doctrine, Taiwan's evolving defense capabilities and posture, the implications for U.S. military deployments in the west Pacific, issues of escalation control should war break out, and the potential future patterns of East Asia's security environment. These chapters coalesce to form the most important book yet published on this critical security problem." —Paul Godwin, National War College (ret.)

"No recent development has aroused more concern among U.S. policymakers and military officials than China's military buildup, which is viewed as a threat to Taiwan and which contains the potential for war between China and the U.S. But what is the nature of the threat? This multifaceted and in-depth examination by top experts provides the best available answer to one of the most critical issues today." —Ellis Joffe, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

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Product Details

Meet the Author

Michael D. Swaine is a senior associate in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's China Program. He has produced several seminal studies, which have expanded American and Chinese governmental officials' understanding of the Chinese military and its role in national security decision making, and Taiwan's national security decision-making process. Dr. Swaine spearheaded and currently co-directs a multi-year collaborative project on key aspects of Sino-American crisis management with a Beijing-based think tank. Dr. Swaine was named the first holder of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy Chair, and also served as research director for the center. His most recent book is Managing Sino-American Crises: Case Studies and Analysis (Carnegie Endowment, 2006). He received a Ph.D. in government from Harvard University.

Andrew N. D. Yang has been on faculty at National Sun Yat-sen University since 1986, and is the Secretary General of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies (CAPS). He has trained as a security studies specialist particularly in the area of military competition and military balance in East Asia as well as PLA modernization and its impact on East Asia security.

Evan S. Medeiros is currently a senior policy scientist at the RAND Corporation in the Washington, D.C. office. He specializes in research on Asian security affairs, China's foreign and national security policies, U.S.-China relations, and Chinese military affairs. Prior to joining RAND, Dr. Medeiros was a senior research associate for East Asia at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, in Monterey, California. He has recently published a book chapter titled "China's Evolving Nuclear Doctrine," as well as three RAND studies: A New Direction for China's Defense Industry (MG-334-AF); Chasing the Dragon: Assessing China's System of Export Controls on WMD-Related Goods and Technologies (MG-353), and Modernizing China's Military: Opportunities and Constraints (MG-260-AF). He holds a Ph.D. in international relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science, an M.Phil in international relations from the University of Cambridge, and an M.A. in China studies from the University of London.

Oriana Skylar Mastro was a junior fellow with the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace during 2006-2007. She holds a B.A. from Stanford University in East Asian Studies with honors in International Security. Fluent in Mandarin Chinese, she will pursue a Ph.D. in politics at Princeton University beginning fall 2007.

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgments     vii
Acronyms     ix
Preface     xv
Introduction and Regional Context
Introduction   Michael D. Swaine   Oriana Skylar Mastro     3
China's Asia Policy: Strategy and Tactics   Alex Liebman     25
People's Liberation Army (PLA) Doctrine and Capabilities
The PLA and Joint Operations: Moving from Theory Toward Practice   Dean Cheng     55
Evolving Chinese Concepts of War Control and Escalation Management   Lonnie D. Henley     85
PLA Power Projection: Current Realities and Emerging Trends   Roy D. Kamphausen   Justin Liang     111
Threats, Deterrence, and Escalation Control in a Taiwan Contingency
Air Force Deterrence and Escalation Calculations for a Taiwan Strait Conflict: China, Taiwan, and the United States   Kenneth W. Allen     153
The Military Instrument of Statecraft at Sea: Naval Options in an Escalatory Scenario Involving Taiwan: 2007-2016   Bernard D. Cole     185
The Nuclear Dimension: How Likely? How Stable?   Brad Roberts     213
PRC Information Operations: Myths, Trends, and New Opportunities   James Mulvenon     243
Taiwan's Defense Preparation Against the Chinese Military Threat   Andrew N. D. Yang     265
TheImplications of Chinese Military Modernization for U.S. Force Posture in a Taiwan Conflict   Roger Cliff     285
Conclusions
Future East Asian Security Architecture: Implications for the PLA   Alan D. Romberg     311
Assessing the Threat   Michael D. Swaine   Oriana Skylar Mastro     337
Bibliography     367
Index     387
Contributors     409
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace     415
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