At Cold War's End: Us Intelligence on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, 1989-1991

Overview

The last phase of the Cold War unfolded during 1989-1991. Determined to move "beyond containment" in relations with the Soviet Union, President George Bush challenged Mikhail Gorbachev to join the United States in ending the East-West conflict and the arms race. As Moscow reached new agreements with Washington and began withdrawing it troops and dismantling its massive military machine in Eastern Europe, its erstwhile allies, contrary to Gorbachev's expectations, rejected communism once and for all. The collapse ...
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Overview

The last phase of the Cold War unfolded during 1989-1991. Determined to move "beyond containment" in relations with the Soviet Union, President George Bush challenged Mikhail Gorbachev to join the United States in ending the East-West conflict and the arms race. As Moscow reached new agreements with Washington and began withdrawing it troops and dismantling its massive military machine in Eastern Europe, its erstwhile allies, contrary to Gorbachev's expectations, rejected communism once and for all. The collapse of communism in Eastern Europe foreshadowed and to some extent accelerated its collapse in the USSR. Gorbachev found himself battling on two fronts at once, as he tried to maintain the USSR's superpower status and reform the Soviet system in what he described as a "battle to the death" with reactionary forces. That battle ended in mutual annihilation after the unsuccessful coup of August 1991, bringing about first the destruction of the old imperial order and later Gorbachev's presidency. The USSR then entered its death spiral and officially ceased to exist as of 31 December 1991.

The volume, which was prepared for a conference on "US Intelligence ad the End of the Cold War" co-sponsored by the Central Intelligence and The Center for Presidential Studies of The Bush School of Government and Public Service, includes US National Intelligence Estimates and other intelligence assessments prepared during 1989-1991. This is the first time the US Intelligence Community has released Cold War records of such recent vintage-records that until recently were highly classified and show how Community interpreted and predicted developments in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe during a tumultuous and rapidly-changing period of history that transformed the postwar world.

At Cold War's End: US Intelligence on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, 1989-1991 is the most recent addition to the CIA History Staff's Cold War Record Series.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781931641043
  • Publisher: Government Reprints Press
  • Publication date: 8/28/2001
  • Pages: 440
  • Product dimensions: 8.30 (w) x 11.10 (h) x 0.95 (d)

Table of Contents

Foreword v
Preface vii
Chronology xlv
Appendix lvii
Documents: A Compendium of National Intelligence Estimates and Assessments
The Soviet Crisis: Gorbachev and the Perils of Perestroika
1. NIE 11-23-88, December 1988, Gorbachev's Economic Programs: The Challenges Ahead 1
2. SOV 89-10077, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Soviet Analysis, September 1989, Gorbachev's Domestic Gambles and Instability in the USSR 27
3. NIE 11-18-89, November 1989, The Soviet System in Crisis: Prospects for the Next Two Years 49
4. NIE 11-18-90, November 1990, The Deepening Crisis in the USSR: Prospects for the Next Year 83
5. Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Soviet Analysis, April 1991, "The Soviet Cauldron" 111
6. NIE 11-18-91, July 1991, Implications of Alternative Soviet Futures 121
7. NIE 11-18.3-91, November 1991, Civil Disorder in the Former USSR: Can It Be Managed This Winter? 141
The End of Empire I: Eastern Europe
8. NIE 11/12-9-88, May 1988, Soviet Policy Toward Eastern Europe Under Gorbachev 151
9. NIE 12-90, April 1990, The Future of Eastern Europe (Key Judgments only) 179
The End of Empire II: National Secession and Ethnic Conflict in the USSR 180
10. SNIE 11-18.2-91, September 1991, The Republics of the Former USSR: The Outlook for the Next Year 185
"New Thinking": Soviet Foreign Relations
11. SNIE 11/37-88, March 1988, USSR: Withdrawal From Afghanistan (Key Judgments only) 215
12. SNIE 11-16-88CX, November 1988, Soviet Policy During the Next Phase of Arms Control in Europe (Key Judgments only) 221
13. NIE 11-4-89, April 1989, Soviet Policy Toward the West: The Gorbachev Challenge 227
14. SNIE 11/37-89, November, 1989, Afghanistan: The War in Perspective (Key Judgments only) 255
15. NI IIM 91-10006, November 1991, Soviet Tactical Nuclear Forces and Gorbachev's Nuclear Pledges: Impact, Motivations, and Next Steps (Key Judgments only) 259
The Military Balance I: Conventional Forces in Europe
16. NIE 11-14-89, February 1989, Trends and Development in Warsaw Pact Theater Forces and Doctrine Through the 1990s 265
17. M/H NIE 4-1-84, September 1989, Warning of War in Europe: Changing Warsaw Pact Planning and Forces (Key Judgments only) 289
18. NIC M 89-10002, September 1989, The Post-CFE Environment in Europe 297
19. NIC M 89-10003, October 1989, Status of Soviet Unilateral Withdrawals 303
20. NIC M 89-10005, November 1989, Soviet Theater Forces in 1991: The Impact of the Unilateral Withdrawals on Structure and Capabilities (Key Judgments only) 315
21. NIC M 90-10002, April 1990, The Direction of Change in the Warsaw Pact 319
The Military Balance II: Strategic Nuclear Weapons
22. NIE 11-3/8-88, December 1988, Soviet Forces and Capabilities for Strategic Nuclear Conflict Through the Late 1990s (Key Judgments and Executive Summary) 341
23. NIE 11-3/8-91, August 1991, Soviet Forces and Capabilities for Strategic Nuclear Conflict Through the Year 2000 (Key Judgments only) 359
24. NIE 11-30-91C, December 1991, The Winter of the Soviet Military: Cohesion or Collapse? 369
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