The bestselling annual baseball preview from the smartest analysts in the business
Now in its 19th edition, the Baseball Prospectus annual shows once again how it became the industry leader: The 2014 edition includes key stat categories, more controversial player predictions, and the kind of wise, witty baseball commentary that makes this phone-book-thick tome worth reading cover to cover.
Baseball Prospectus 2014 provides fantasy players and insiders alike with prescient PECOTA projections, which Sports Illustrated has called "perhaps the game's most accurate projection model." Still, stats are just numbers if you don't see the larger context, and Baseball Prospectus brings together an elite team of analysts to provide the definitive look at all thirty teams—their players, their prospects, and their managers—to explain away flukes, hot streaks, injury-tainted numbers, and park effects. Victory, after all, could come down to choosing between the supposed sleeper and the overrated prospects who won't be able to fool people in the Show like they have down on the farm.
Nearly every major-league team has sought the advice of current or former Prospectus writers, and readers of Baseball Prospectus 2014 will understand what all those fans have been raving about.
"If you're a baseball fan and you don't know what BP is, you're working in a mine without one of those helmets with the lights on it."—Keith Olbermann
"The first time I saw the PECOTA projections, I realized that someone out there understood." —Jeff Luhnow, General Manager, Houston Astros
"For me, every year baseball begins with the big, brilliant, beautiful book you are holding in your hands right now."—Joe Posnanski
Baseball Prospectus 2013 correctly predicted:
*Disappointing performances by Albert Pujols, Dan Haren, Michael Bourn, Justin Upton, and Tommy Hanson.
*Breakouts by Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Seager, Matt Moore, Shelby Miller, and Jason Kipnis, as well as bounceback seasons from Jayson Werth and Shin-Soo Choo.
*That Max Scherzer would be a Cy Young contender and Michael Wacha ace-in-waiting for the Cardinals.
*That Wil Myers would be a middle-of-the-order bat for Tampa Bay and Josh Donaldson would finally win the Rich Harden trade for the A's.
*That CC Sabathia's velocity drop could be a problem, but Felix Hernandez's would not be.
*That Joaquin Benoit, Kenley Jansen, and Koji Uehara were better bullpen bets than pre-season closer picks Bruce Rondon, Brandon League, and Joel Hanrahan.