Bayesian Epistemology

Bayesian Epistemology

by Luc Bovens, Stephan Hartmann
     
 

Probability theory is increasingly important to philosophy. Bayesian probabilistic models offer us ways of getting to grips with fundamental problems about information, coherence, reliability, confirmation, and testimony, and thus show how we can justify beliefs and evaluate theories. Bovens and Hartmann provide a systematic guide to the use of probabilistic

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Overview

Probability theory is increasingly important to philosophy. Bayesian probabilistic models offer us ways of getting to grips with fundamental problems about information, coherence, reliability, confirmation, and testimony, and thus show how we can justify beliefs and evaluate theories. Bovens and Hartmann provide a systematic guide to the use of probabilistic methods not just in epistemology, but also in philosophy of science, voting theory, jurisprudence, and cognitive psychology.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780199269754
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
Publication date:
03/11/2004
Pages:
176
Product dimensions:
8.60(w) x 5.70(h) x 0.60(d)

Table of Contents

Introduction1
1Information9
1.1C. I Lewis's Heritage9
1.2Bayesian Coherentism10
1.3Modelling Information Gathering14
1.4An Impossibility Result19
1.5Weak Bayesian Coherentism22
2Coherence28
2.1Unequal Priors28
2.2Constructing a Measure30
2.3A Corps in Tokyo, BonJour's Ravens and Tweety39
2.4Equal Reliability45
2.5Indeterminacy47
2.6Alternative Proposals49
2.7Theory Choice in Science53
3Reliability56
3.1Reliability Defined Endogenously56
3.2One Witness Report58
3.3Multiple Witness Reports60
3.4An Upper Limit for Reliability?63
3.5Bayesian Networks67
3.6Jury Voting81
3.7Tversky and Kahneman's Linda85
4Confirmation89
4.1Hypothesis Testing89
4.2Same Tests Results94
4.3Coherent Test Results98
4.4The Variety-of-Evidence Thesis103
4.5Auxiliary Theories107
5Testimony112
5.1The Value of Surprising Information112
5.2Testimonies from Independent Witnesses113
5.3Lower Priors, Higher Posteriors?115
5.4Generalizing to Many Witnesses121
5.5Shopping for Consumer Products123
Epilogue128
Appendix131
References154
Index157

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