Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections / Edition 1

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Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology, and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether more accurate models of predicting voting behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the winner will be.

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Editorial Reviews

Based in large part on the predictive articles presented in the October 1996 issue of the , political scientists present, unrevised, eight forecasting models which they used to evaluate the possibilities of the 1996 Presidential election and append explorations of the ramifications the actual results has upon their models. Interestingly, all of the models correctly predicted the election of Bill Clinton and the mean error of the models was only two percentage points. Also included are applications of the models to the elections of 2000. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780761916376
  • Publisher: SAGE Publications
  • Publication date: 12/1/1999
  • Series: Television and Radio Series
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 236
  • Product dimensions: 6.00 (w) x 9.00 (h) x 0.54 (d)

Table of Contents

Forecasting US National Elections - James E Campbell and James C Garand
Polls and Votes - James E Campbell
The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns
Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure - Alan Abramowitz
Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election
Of Time and Candidates - Helmut Norpoth
A Forecast for 1996
The Future in Forecasting - Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
Prospective Presidential Models
Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts - Christopher Wlezien and Robert S Erikson
Reading the Political Tea Leaves - Thomas Holbrook
A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections
Election Forecasting - Brad Lockerbie
A Look to the Future
Poll-Based Forecasts and the House Vote in Presidential Election Years - Robert S Erikson and Lee Sigelman
1952-1992 and 1996
Evaluating Forecasts and Forecasting Models of the 1996 Presidential Election - Nathaniel Beck
The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections - James E Campbell
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