Table of Contents
CONTENTSPreface to the second edition 1
1. Introduction and Recommendations
Thomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel 3
1.1 Scenarios 4
1.2 Thinking in the long term 7
1.3 Policy recommendations 9
2. Scenarios for the future of eastern Europe’s unresolved
conflicts
Thomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel 15
2.1 Introduction – the Ukraine effect 15
2.2 Overarching conditions 17
2.2.1 Frozen diplomacy? 17
2.2.2 Russia 18
2.2.3 Stronger nations 24
2.2.4 The European Union 25
2.2.5 Potential for incremental change 27
2.3 Scenarios 29
2.3.1 The Donbas 30
2.3.2 Transdniestria 37
2.3.3 Abkhazia 40
2.3.4 South 'ssetia 43
2.3.5 Nagorny Karabakh 46
2.4 Conclusions 50
3. The State of the Donbas: A study of eastern Ukraine’s
separatist-held areas
Nikolaus von Twickel 54
3.1 Introduction 55
3.2 Politics 58
3.2.1 The creation of the ‘people’s republics’ 58
3.2.1 Operation Girkin 59
3.2.2 Russification and de-Russification 61
3.2.3 Agents rather than actors 62
3.2.4 Parties and parliaments 64
3.2.5 Large bureaucracies with little control 66
3.2.6 Leadership changes – the Luhansk putsch 68
3.2.7 The killing of Alexander Zakharchenko 70
3.2.8 External relations 72
3.2.9 Relations with Russia 73
3.2.10 Relations with the rest of Ukraine 74
3.3 Economy 76
3.3.1 Decline set in long before 2014 76
3.3.2 The trade blockade of 2017 79
3.3.3 The coal industry 83
3.3.4 Brain drain – a demographic catastrophe? 86
3.3.5 Is Moscow subsidising a black hole? 89
3.3.6 Low wages and meagre pensions 91
3.3.7 The rise of Vneshtorgservis and Serhiy Kurchenko 92
3.3.8 Return of the oligarchs? 96
3.3.9 The Luhansk ‘People’s Republic’ - a different case? 98
3.4 Society 99
3.4.1 Not an ethnic conflict 99
3.4.2 Social cohesion 101
3.4.3 How popular are the ‘people’s republics’? 102
3.4.4 The media 103
3.4.5 Human rights – the MGBs and dissent 106
3.4.6 International isolation 107
3.5 Security 109
3.5.1 Introduction 109
3.5.2 The armed formations 112
3.5.3 Asymmetric mutual deterrence 114
3.5.4 The fighting along the Contact Line 115
3.5.5 Disengagement 117
3.5.6 International presence: the OSCE Special
Monitoring Mission 118
3.5.7 Prospects for a peacekeeping mission 119
3.5.8 Limits for a peacekeeping mission 122
3.6 Outlook 123
4. Transdniestria Today
Thomas de Waal 127
4.1 Introduction 128
4.2 Background 131
4.3 Negotiations – one step forward and two steps back 134
4.4 Politics and society in Transdniestria 138
4.5 The economy 140
4.6 The grey zone 144
5. Abkhazia Today
Thomas de Waal 149
5.1 Introduction 150
5.2 Deadlocked negotiations 153
5.3 Domestic politics and Russian influence 154
5.4 Economy and society 159
5.5 Inguri power division 166
5.6 Tbilisi’s policy 167
5.7 The international outlook 171
6. South 'ssetia Today
Thomas de Waal 175
6.1 Introduction 176
6.2 Background 178
6.3 Political life 181
6.4 Security and borderisation 184
6.5 Economy and society 186
6.6 Links with Georgia 188
7. The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in its Fourth Decade
Thomas de Waal 191
7.1 Introduction 192
7.2 A new conflict 197
7.3 A long road to peace 201
7.4 International context 205
7.5 Challenges for the next five years 211
About the authors 215
