Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making / Edition 1

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Overview

The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is an overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Chapters are contributed by experts in the field from various disciplines such as psychology, cognitive science, business, and law. The selection of topics reflects current trends and controversies in judgment and decision-making research. Each chapter provides an overview of important past research and a report on current research and future directions in various areas in the study of human judgment and decision making.
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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
"Highly recommended."
Choice

"....Exactly what a good handbook should be; comprehensive, representative, authoritative, authentic and well-written"
Kenneth R. Hammond, University of Colorado at Boulder

"This spelendid collection by Koehler and Harvey is a timely state-of-the-art report on Judgment and Decision Making (JDM) and provides a good demonstration of the great strides that have been made in thie area over the past 50 or so years. In short, for anyone who wants to know exactly where JDM research is currently at, this book is essential reading."
Applied Cognitive Psychology

"The Handbook shows the realization of Ward Edwards's original dream of a field made exciting by the continual interplay between normative analyses, descriptive research, and prescriptive interventions, bridging critical gaps between the normative ideal and descriptive reality."
Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon University and President of Society for Risk Analysis

"Fifty years of research have created an impressive body of knowledge and theory about human judgment and decision making. This comprehensive and authoritative handbook will serve as a valuable text and reference for students, scholars, and decision makers."
Paul Slovic, University of Oregon and President of Decision Research Institute

“Judgment and decision making is hot, and a handbook comes at just the right time. What I like so much about this book is that so many of the chapters are written by young scholars with fresh perspectives and new ideas. This Handbook is a great place for graduate students to find out where the frontiers of the field are now, and who are the researchers that are making the field so exciting.”
Richard H. Thaler, University of Chicago

"This is the first book to give a complete overview of this field, which has been developing since the 1950s. The first part details normative approaches and includes discussions of bounded rationality and computational models of decision making. The next two parts focus respectively on judgements and decisions while the last part examines practical applications. Topics range over hypothesis testing, the challenges of uncertainty and complexity, the role of feelings in decision making, the influence of culture and even the psychology of medical decision making."
The Scientific and Medical Network Review

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Product Details

Meet the Author

Derek J. Koehler is Associate Professor of Psychology at the University of Waterloo, Canada. He recently completed a term as associate editor at the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition.

Nigel Harvey is Professor of Judgment and Decision Research at University College London. He is a member of the Centre for Research into Economic Learning and Social Evolution and is a former president of the European Association for Decision Making.

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Table of Contents

1 Rationality and the normative/descriptive distinction 3
2 Normative models of judgment and decision making 19
3 Social judgment theory : applying and extending Brunswik's probabilistic functionalism 37
4 Fast and frugal heuristics : the tools of bounded rationality 62
5 Yet another look at the heuristics and biases approach 89
6 Walking with the scarecrow : the information-processing approach to decision research 110
7 Computational models of decision making 133
8 Inside and outside probability judgment 157
9 Perspectives on probability judgment calibration 177
10 Hypothesis testing and evaluation 200
11 Judging covariation and causation 220
12 A tale of tuned decks? : anchoring as accessibility and anchoring as adjustment 240
13 Twisted pair : counterfactual thinking and the hindsight bias 258
14 Forecasting and scenario planning : the challenges of uncertainty and complexity 274
15 Expertise in judgment and decision making : a case for training intuitive decision skills 297
16 Debiasing 316
17 Context and conflict in multiattribute choice 341
18 Internal and substantive inconsistencies in decision making 360
19 Framing, loss aversion, and mental accounting 379
20 Decision under risk 399
21 Intertemporal choice 424
22 The connections between affect and decision making : nine resulting phenomena 444
23 Group decision and deliberation : a distributed detection process 464
24 Behavioral game theory 485
25 Culture and decisions 504
26 Behavioral finance 527
27 Judgment and decision-making accounting research : a quest to improve the production, certification, and use of accounting information 547
28 Heuristics, biases, and governance 567
29 The psychology of medical decision making 585
30 Judgment, decision making, and public policy 604
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