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Terrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Defending the U.S. Homeland / Edition 1
     

Terrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Defending the U.S. Homeland / Edition 1

by Anthony H. Cordesman
 

ISBN-10: 0275974278

ISBN-13: 2900275974274

Pub. Date: 11/28/2001

Publisher: ABC-CLIO, Incorporated

Analyzes the threat of covert, terrorist, and extremist attacks with weapons of mass destruction and how the United States can defend against them.

Overview

Analyzes the threat of covert, terrorist, and extremist attacks with weapons of mass destruction and how the United States can defend against them.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
2900275974274
Publisher:
ABC-CLIO, Incorporated
Publication date:
11/28/2001
Edition description:
New Edition
Pages:
464

Table of Contents

Acknowledgmentsxi
Chapter 1The Changing Face of Asymmetric Warfare and Terrorism1
The Growing Focus on Terrorism7
Terrorism versus Asymmetric Warfare8
Chapter 2Risk Assessment: Planning for "Non-patterns" and Potential Risk11
Looking Beyond Emotional Definitions of Terrorism11
Rethinking the Mid- and Long-term Risk of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Attack13
Patterns and Non-patterns in the Number of Attacks16
Casualties versus Incidents: The Lack of Correlation16
U.S. and American Casualties versus International Casualties20
Considering the Threat from State and Non-state Actors25
States, "Terrorists," and Acts of War25
Planning for Major Attacks and Asymmetric Warfare by State Actors31
The Threat of "Proxies" and "Networks"32
Dealing with Nuance and Complex Motives32
Consideration of the Full Spectrum of Possible Types and Methods of Attack: The Need to Consider "Worst Cases"33
Making Offense, Deterrence, Denial, Defense, and Retaliation Part of Homeland Defense34
Linking Homeland Defense to Counterproliferation36
Chapter 3Threat Prioritization: Seeking to Identify Current and Future Threats39
Potential State Actors39
A Department of State Assessment of State Threats40
A Department of Defense Assessment of Threats from Foreign States45
The Probable Lack of Well-Defined Strategic Warning of a Threat from State Actors and Unpredictable Behavior in a Crisis49
Foreign Terrorists and Extremists51
Continuing Threats and Counterterrorist Action54
Major Foreign Terrorist Groups and Extremists57
Threats from Foreign Students and Immigrants74
Domestic Terrorists and Extremists76
The Implications of Past Terrorist Attacks80
Probability versus Probability Theory85
Chapter 4Types of Attack: Determining Future Methods of Attack and the Needed Response89
Illustrative Attack Scenarios92
"Conventional" Means of Attack96
Weapons of Mass Destruction97
Chemical Weapons As Means of Attack101
The Impact and Variety of Possible Chemical Weapons108
The probable Lethality and Effectiveness of Chemical Attacks109
Methods of Delivery117
Detection and Interception118
Acquiring Chemical Weapons119
The Impact of Technological Change122
The Aum Shinrikyo Case Study122
Political and Psychological Effects124
The Problem of Response125
Biological Weapons As Means of Attack128
Categorizing the Biological Threat135
Case Studies: Iraq and Russia142
State Actor, Proxy, and Terrorist/Extremist Incidents to Date147
The Yugoslav Smallpox Incident150
Cases in the United States150
The Lethality and Effectiveness of Current Biological Weapons151
Means of Delivery160
Manufacturing Biological Weapons161
Changes in Technology and the Difficulty of Manufacture166
The Growing Lethality of Biological Weapons and Growing Ease of Manufacture168
New Types of Biological Weapons169
Changes in Disease: Piggybacking on the Threat from Nature170
Agricultural and Ecological Attacks174
The Problem of Response177
Radiological Weapons As Means of Attack194
The Practical Chances of Using Radiological Weapons195
The Practical Risks and Effects of Using Radiological Weapons196
Nuclear Weapons As Means of Attack199
Lethality and Effectiveness207
Is There a Threat from State Actors, Proxies, Terrorists, and Extremists? The Problem of Getting the Weapon216
The Problem of Delivery222
Dealing with the Risk and Impact of Nuclear Attacks222
Chapter 5Threat Assessment and Prioritization: Identifying Threats237
Dr. Pangloss versus Chicken Little and the Boy Who Cried Wolf238
The Problem of Detection, Warning, and Response239
Living with Complexity and Uncertainty: A Flexible and Evolutionary Approach239
The "Morning After," Multiple Attacks; The "Morning After" and the "Learning Curve Effect"242
Chapter 6U.S. Government Efforts to Create a Homeland Defense Capability245
Key Presidential Decision Directives and Legislation Affecting the Federal Response247
Ongoing Changes in the Structure of the Federal Effort249
The Growth of the Federal Effort250
The FY2000 Program251
The FY2001 Program253
The Details of the Federal Effort254
The Changing Patterns in Federal Spending255
Planning and Programming the Overall Federal Effort261
Antiterrorism, Counterterrorism, and Core Spending264
Spending on Preparedness for Attacks Using Weapons of Mass Destruction269
Chapter 7Federal Efforts by Department and Agency275
Department of Agriculture276
National Animal Health Emergency Program276
Central Intelligence Agency277
Department of Commerce289
Department of Defense289
Analyzing the Role of the DOD291
The Size of the Current DOD Effort295
Dedicated FY2001 DOD Expenditures for CBRN/WMD Homeland Defense297
Key DOD Activities300
Antiterrorism and Force Protection303
Counterterrorism306
Terrorism Consequence Management307
Specialized DOD Teams and Units for Defense and Response318
Research and Development323
Intelligence324
Counterforce Capability against an Adversary's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Infrastructures324
The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program327
Conclusions328
Department of Energy329
Office of Nonproliferation and National Security329
Office of Emergency Management330
Office of Defense Programs330
Office of Emergency Response330
Nuclear Emergency Search Team330
Radiological Assistance Program330
The Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Emergency Operations Program331
Research and Development331
Environmental Protection Agency331
Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response332
On-Scene Coordinator332
Federal Emergency Management Agency332
Response and Recovery Directorate333
Preparedness, Training, and Exercises Directorate333
U.S. Fire Administration334
National Fire Academy and Emergency Management Institute334
General Services Administration336
Department of Health and Human Services336
Metropolitan Medical Response Systems337
National Pharmaceutical Stockpile Program339
Public Health Surveillance System for WMD340
Research and Development341
Department of the Interior341
Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation341
National Domestic Preparedness Office345
Office for State and Local Domestic Preparedness Support350
National Domestic Preparedness Consortium355
Awareness of National Security Issues and Response Program356
National Institute of Justice357
National Security Community358
Nuclear Regulatory Commission358
Department of State358
Embassy Protection358
Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism360
Bureau of Consular Affairs362
Bureau of Diplomatic Security362
Anti-Terrorism Assistance Program362
Export Controls and Homeland Defense363
Arms Control and Homeland Defense363
Department of Transportation364
Department of Treasury364
Department of Veterans Affairs366
Looking Beyond September 2001367
Chapter 8Federal, State, and Local Cooperation373
Planning for Low- to Mid-Level Terrorism374
West Nile Outbreak375
The Lessons from "Jointness"377
Chapter 9How Other Nations Deal with These Threats381
Leadership and Management383
Policies and Strategies384
Claimed Reliance on Criminal Prosecution As the Major Response and Deterrent385
Oversight, Planning, Programming, and Budgeting386
Resource Allocations Are Targeted at Likely Threats, Not Vulnerabilities: Limited Concern with WMD Threats387
Learning from Foreign Countries388
Chapter 10Lessons from Recent Major Commissions on Terrorism391
The Gilmore, Bremer, and Hart-Rudman Commissions391
Areas Where the Commissions Made Similar Recommendations394
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Executive Coordination and Management394
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Congressional Oversight397
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Intelligence Gathering and Sharing398
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Clarify Authority, Command, and Control399
Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Biological Pathogens, International Consensus against Terrorism, and Strengthening of Public Health Systems402
Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Strengthening the International Consensus against Terrorism and the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism403
Areas Where the Commissions Made Different Recommendations403
Gilmore Commission: Threat Assessments404
Gilmore Commission: National Strategy for Domestic Preparedness and CBRN Terrorism Response404
Gilmore Commissions: Standardization of Legal Terms407
Gilmore Commission: National Standards for Equipment407
Bremer Commission: Treatment of Former and Future States of Concern409
Bremer Commission: Targeting Terrorist Financial Resources410
Bremer Commission: Liability Insurance411
Bremer Commission: Realistic Exercises411
Chapter 11Conclusions and Recommendations415
Correcting the Strategic Gaps in the U.S. Approach to Homeland Defense416
Focusing Less on Who's in Charge and More on What They Should Be in Charge of417
Planning for Higher-Probability, Lower-Consequence, and Lower-Probability, Higher-Consequence Events418
Planning for Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare421
Reacting to the Uncertain Nature of the Threat424
The Lack of "Transparency" in Federal Programs426
Effective Action Must Be Broad-Based and Suboptimize Efficiently428
Focusing on Priorities, Programs, and Trade-offs: Creating Effective Planning, Programming, and Budgeting430
Managing Research and Development, Rather Than Treating Asymmetric Attacks, Terrorism, and the CBRN Threat As an Excuse for a "Wish List" and "Slush Fund"434
Looking Beyond CBRN Threats: Dealing with All Medical Risks and Costs, the Need for a Comprehensive Public Information Capability, and the Linkage to Improved Strategic Deterrence and Response Capabilities435
Homeland Defense and/or Law Enforcement438
The Role of the Intelligence Community and the Need for Improved Intelligence439
The Challenge of Operations442
Rule of Law, Human Rights, Asymmetric Warfare, High Levels of Attack, and "New Paradigms"443
The Need for Central Coordination and Management of the Federal Effort444
Broader Solutions and New Approaches to National Strategy: Reacting to Asymmetric Warfare446

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