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The meltdown in the credit markets, the decline in housing prices,and the turmoil in the stock market have rocked the world of theeveryday investor. The idea that home ownership and a buy-and-holdstock market strategy are the best long-term investments hassuddenly been thrown into question. With bearish investment expertstouting historical research that suggests both real estate valuesand the stock market could stagnate for years to come, ourfinancial future—including the ...
The meltdown in the credit markets, the decline in housing prices,and the turmoil in the stock market have rocked the world of theeveryday investor. The idea that home ownership and a buy-and-holdstock market strategy are the best long-term investments hassuddenly been thrown into question. With bearish investment expertstouting historical research that suggests both real estate valuesand the stock market could stagnate for years to come, ourfinancial future—including the retirement funds of millionsof Americans—is in jeopardy.
In The Bull Inside the Bear, investment manager andformer Federal Reserve economist Robert Stein believes the economyis entering uncharted waters and explains why investors need toactively manage their portfolios to take advantage of newopportunities and avoid risky sectors to limit losses. The key willbe to stay nimble and be ready to rebalance your position aseconomic conditions change, while utilizing innovative productssuch as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to diversify yourportfolio.
Written in a straightforward and accessible style, this reliableresource opens with a detailed discussion of the economic lessonswe can learn from recent decades. Stein looks at everything fromgold in the 1970s through the tech bubble of the 1990s to thecredit crisis of the present decade, and addresses the need to payclose attention to the warning signs of changing times. Afterbecoming aware of the broader economic landscape, you'll discoverhow to make better investment choices—which means notfollowing the crowd to an overbought market or sector, and notbecoming wedded to your favorite investment strategy. You'll alsolearn to watch for key data points to make investment decisions, soyou won't have to hastily react to every crisis and marketblip.
Investing has become far more volatile and challenging than everbefore following the implosion of the credit bubble, massivedeleveraging of assets, and the global recession. However, thisenvironment, and the impending inflation to follow, will createopportunities in areas such as equities, commodities, fixed-income,and currencies. Stein skillfully shows you how finding the bullsinside these bears can put you in a better position to make moreinformed investment decisions and benefit from the bubbles, bursts,and blips that will continue to occur in the years ahead.
Filled with practical advice that cannot be ignored, The BullInside the Bear will allow you to prosper in a new andchallenging investment environment.
Part I: The Credit Market Meltdown.
Chapter 1 How Has the World Changed?
The Next Bull and Bear.
A Valuable History Lesson.
The Four Stages of a Recurring Cycle.
Always a Bull Inside the Bear.
The Role of the Fed.
The World As We Know It.
Today’s World and Money Supply.
Conclusion: A Changing, Consistent World.
Chapter 2 Bubbles, Bursts, and Blips: A View of thePast.
The 1970s: The Gold Bubble Inflates.
The 1980s: Two Dips and a Blip.
The 1980s in Perspective.
The 1990s: An Expansion Here, a Bubble There.
The 2000s and the Liquidity Bubble.
The Bull Inside the Bear: The Next Bubble to Burst—andBull to Emerge.
Chapter 3 Inflation: The Factor That Is Always withUs.
Inflation to the Rescue.
Causes of Inflation.
The Wage-Inflation Equation.
Wage Pressures and Inflation.
Oil Prices: The Ouch That Stings.
Inflation Is Always an Issue.
The 1970s: Whipping Double-Digit Inflation.
The Greenspan Years.
Bernanke Takes Over.
The Bull Inside the Bear: Your Inflation Opportunities.
Stay Alert and Nimble.
Part II: What Does It All Mean for Me?
Chapter 4 The Credit Cycle.
An Overview of the Housing Cycle.
The Four Phases of the Credit Cycle.
The Pivotal Moment: A Nod to Minsky.
Now the Deleveraging Begins.
Credit Cycle Impact.
Bull Inside the Bear: It’s Not the End of the World.
Chapter 5 The Housing Bubble: From Watch to Warning.
Nearly 70 Percent Home Ownership in the United States.
The Weather Watch.
A Loan for Everyone.
From Watch to Warning.
Slice-and-Dice Debt Packages.
One Last Blast to Inflate the Bubble.
A Violent Storm: The Bursting of the Bubble.
The Impact on U.S. Economic Growth.
The Bull Inside the Bear: Lessons from a Housing Bubble.
Chapter 6 The Fed as FEMA.
The Fed to the Rescue.
A Short History of the Fed.
The Fed Steps In.
Greenspan and the Stock Market.
Greenspan and Liquidity.
Liquidity Flows and Flows.
Bailing out Bear Stearns.
The Hidden Cost of Fed as FEMA.
The Bull Inside the Bear: The Fed, Intervention, and You.
Chapter 7 Your Next Opportunity.
Take Heart—Or at Least Take Heed.
Understanding Current Events.
Where’s the Bull?
Beware of Bonds: The Next Bubble to Burst.
The Bull Inside the Bear: Reverting to the Mean.
Let’s Talk Game Plan.
Doubling the Dow.
Part III: Investment Lessons to Live By.
Chapter 8 ETFs: The Perfect Investment.
An Investment for Uncertain Times.
Pure Investment, No Ego.
ETFs for Retirement Plans.
Thinking Like an Economist.
Going Short by Going Long.
On the Radar for 2009.
The Bull Inside the Bear: See the Forest, Focus on theTrees.
Chapter 9 Nimble and Aware: Focusing on the BigPicture.
The Economy is Not the Stock Market.
A Snapshot of the Economy.
GDP: Measuring Economic Health.
Investment Money Flows and Stock Price Momentum.
No Need to be a Passive Investor.
Right Sector, Wrong Stock.
The Bull Inside the Bear: Diversification Using ETFs.
Chapter 10 Thoughts on Life—andInvesting.
Worry About the Right Things.
The Credit-Based Economy.
Don’t Fight the Cycles.
The Economy and Politics.
The Blame Game.
The Bull Inside the Bear—Is You.
About the Author.