Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World with CD-ROM / Edition 1

Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World with CD-ROM / Edition 1

by John Sterman
     
 

Today’s leading authority on the subject of this text is the author, MIT Standish Professor of Management and Director of the System Dynamics Group, John D. Sterman. Sterman’s objective is to explain, in a true textbook format, what system dynamics is, and how it can be successfully applied to solve business and organizational problems. System dynamics

See more details below

Overview

Today’s leading authority on the subject of this text is the author, MIT Standish Professor of Management and Director of the System Dynamics Group, John D. Sterman. Sterman’s objective is to explain, in a true textbook format, what system dynamics is, and how it can be successfully applied to solve business and organizational problems. System dynamics is both a currently utilized approach to organizational problem solving at the professional level, and a field of study in business, engineering, and social and physical sciences.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780072389159
Publisher:
McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing
Publication date:
02/28/2000
Edition description:
New Edition
Pages:
982
Sales rank:
569,935
Product dimensions:
8.20(w) x 10.30(h) x 1.60(d)

Related Subjects

Table of Contents

Prefacevii
Part IPerspective and Process1
1Learning in and about Complex Systems3
1.1Introduction3
1.2Learning Is a Feedback Process14
1.3Barriers to Learning19
1.4Requirements for Successful Learning in Complex Systems33
1.5Summary39
2System Dynamics in Action41
2.1Applications of System Dynamics41
2.2Automobile Leasing Strategy: Gone Today, Here Tomorrow42
2.3On Time and Under Budget: The Dynamics of Project Management55
2.4Playing the Maintenance Game66
2.5Summary: Principles for Successful Use of System Dynamics79
3The Modeling Process83
3.1The Purpose of Modeling: Managers as Organization Designers84
3.2The Client and the Modeler84
3.3Steps of the Modeling Process85
3.4Modeling Is Iterative87
3.5Overview of the Modeling Process89
3.6Summary104
4Structure and Behavior of Dynamic Systems107
4.1Fundamental Modes of Dynamic Behavior108
4.2Interactions of the Fundamental Modes118
4.3Other Modes of Behavior127
4.4Summary133
Part IITools for Systems Thinking135
5Causal Loop Diagrams137
5.1Causal Diagram Notation137
5.2Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams141
5.3Process Point: Developing Causal Diagrams from Interview Data157
5.4Conceptualization Case Study: Managing Your Workload159
5.5Adam Smith's Invisible Hand and the Feedback Structure of Markets169
5.6Explaining Policy Resistance: Traffic Congestion177
5.7Summary190
6Stocks and Flows191
6.1Stocks, Flows, and Accumulation191
6.2Identifying Stocks and Flows197
6.3Mapping Stocks and Flows210
6.4Summary229
7Dynamics of Stocks and Flows231
7.1Relationship between Stocks and Flows232
7.2System Dynamics in Action: Global Warming241
7.3System Dynamics in Action: The War on Drugs250
7.4Summary262
8Closing the Loop: Dynamics of Simple Structures263
8.1First-Order Systems263
8.2Positive Feedback and Exponential Growth264
8.3Negative Feedback and Exponential Decay274
8.4Multiple-Loop Systems282
8.5Nonlinear First-Order Systems: S-Shaped Growth285
8.6Summary290
Part IIIThe Dynamics of Growth293
9S-Shaped Growth: Epidemics, Innovation Diffusion, and the Growth of New Products295
9.1Modeling S-Shaped Growth296
9.2Dynamics of Disease: Modeling Epidemics300
9.3Innovation Diffusion as Infection: Modeling New Ideas and New Products323
9.4Summary346
10Path Dependence and Positive Feedback349
10.1Path Dependence349
10.2A Simple Model of Path Dependence: The Polya Process354
10.3Path Dependence in the Economy: VHS versus Betamax359
10.4Positive Feedback: The Engine of Corporate Growth364
10.5Positive Feedback, Increasing Returns, and Economic Growth385
10.6Does the Economy Lock in to Inferior Technologies?387
10.7Limits to Lock In389
10.8Modeling Path Dependence and Standards Formation391
10.9Summary406
Part IVTools for Modeling Dynamic Systems407
11Delays409
11.1Delays: An Introduction409
11.2Material Delays: Structure and Behavior412
11.3Information Delays: Structure and Behavior426
11.4Response to Variable Delay Times434
11.5Estimating the Duration and Distribution of Delays437
11.6System Dynamics in Action: Forecasting Semiconductor Demand449
11.7Mathematics of Delays: Koyck Lags and Erlang Distributions462
11.8Summary466
12Coflows and Aging Chains469
12.1Aging Chains470
12.2Coflows: Modeling the Attributes of a Stock497
12.3Summary511
13Modeling Decision Making513
13.1Principles for Modeling Decision Making513
13.2Formulating Rate Equations522
13.3Common Pitfalls545
13.4Summary549
14Formulating Nonlinear Relationships551
14.1Table Functions552
14.2Case Study: Cutting Corners versus Overtime563
14.3Case Study: Estimating Nonlinear Functions with Qualitative and Numerical Data569
14.4Common Pitfalls573
14.5Eliciting Model Relationships Interactively585
14.6Summary595
15Modeling Human Behavior: Bounded Rationality or Rational Expectations?597
15.1Human Decision Making: Bounded Rationality or Rational Expectations?598
15.2Cognitive Limitations599
15.3Individual and Organizational Responses to Bounded Rationality601
15.4Intended Rationality603
15.5Case Study: Modeling High-Tech Growth Firms605
15.6Summary629
16Forecasts and Fudge Factors: Modeling Expectation Formation631
16.1Modeling Expectation Formation631
16.2Case Study: Energy Consumption638
16.3Case Study: Commodity Prices643
16.4Case Study: Inflation645
16.5Implications for Forecast Consumers655
16.6Initialization and Steady State Response of the TREND Function658
16.7Summary660
Part VInstability and Oscillation661
17Supply Chains and the Origin of Oscillations663
17.1Supply Chains in Business and Beyond664
17.2The Stock Management Problem666
17.3The Stock Management Structure675
17.4The Origin of Oscillations684
17.5Summary707
18The Manufacturing Supply Chain709
18.1The Policy Structure of Inventory and Production710
18.2Interactions among Supply Chain Partners729
18.3System Dynamics in Action: Reengineering the Supply Chain in a High-Velocity Industry743
18.4Summary755
19The Labor Supply Chain and the Origin of Business Cycles757
19.1The Labor Supply Chain758
19.2Interactions of Labor and Inventory Management764
19.3Inventory--Workforce Interactions and the Business Cycle782
19.4Summary788
20The Invisible Hand Sometimes Shakes: Commodity Cycles791
20.1Commodity Cycles: From Aircraft to Zinc792
20.2A Generic Commodity Market Model798
20.3Application: Cycles in the Pulp and Paper Industry824
20.4Summary841
Part VIModel Testing843
21Truth and Beauty: Validation and Model Testing845
21.1Validation and Verification Are Impossible846
21.2Questions Model Users Should Ask--But Usually Don't851
21.3Pragmatics and Politics of Model Use851
21.4Model Testing in Practice858
21.5Summary890
Part VIICommencement893
22Challenges for the Future895
22.1Theory895
22.2Technology896
22.3Implementation899
22.4Education900
22.5Applications901
Appendix ANumerical Integration903
Appendix BNoise913
References925
Index947

Read More

Customer Reviews

Average Review:

Write a Review

and post it to your social network

     

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

See all customer reviews >