Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios [NOOK Book]

Overview

The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects. These range from the impacts of warfare in the Middle East on energy futures, investment and global currencies to the vast and unpredictable impacts of climate change. All this threatens established strategic planning methods.

This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with ...
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Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios

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Overview

The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects. These range from the impacts of warfare in the Middle East on energy futures, investment and global currencies to the vast and unpredictable impacts of climate change. All this threatens established strategic planning methods.

This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. A key feature of the book is the exchange of insights across the academic-practitioner divide. Scholars of scenario thinking and organizational environments will appreciate the authors' conceptual and methodological advances. What has previously remained jargon only accessible to the highest level of corporate and government futures planners here becomes comprehensible to a wider business and practitioner community.
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781136570575
  • Publisher: Taylor & Francis
  • Publication date: 5/23/2012
  • Sold by: Barnes & Noble
  • Format: eBook
  • Pages: 240
  • Sales rank: 1,215,229
  • File size: 5 MB

Meet the Author

Rafael Ramárez is James Martin Senior Research Fellow in Futures at the Institute for Science, Innovation and Society, Saíd Business School, University of Oxford. He co-chairs the World Economic Forum's 'Global Agenda Council on Strategic Foresight'.

John W. Selsky is Associate Professor of Management, College of Business, University of South Florida Polytechnic.

Kees van der Heijden is Emeritus Professor of Strategic Management at Strathclyde University Business School, Glasgow, and currently Fellow in Strategic Management at Templeton College and Saíd Business School, University of Oxford.

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Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables

Foreword Vinee Cable Cable, Vinee

1 Introduction: Why Write This Book and for Whom? Rafael Ramirez Ramirez, Rafael Kees van der Heijden van der Heijden, Kees John W. Selsky Selsky, John W. 3

2 Conceptual and Historical Overview Rafael Ramirez Ramirez, Rafael John W. Selsky Selsky, John W. Kees van der Heijden van der Heijden, Kees 17

3 How Do Scenario Practices and Search Conferences Complement Each Other? Jaime Jimenez Jimenez, Jaime 31

4 Reflecting on Scenario Practice: The Contribution of a Soft Systems Perspective Trudi Lang Lang, Trudi Lynn Allen Allen, Lynn 47

5 New Forms of Coherence for the Social Engagement of the Social Scientist: The Theory and Facilitation of Organizational Change from the Perspective of the Emery-Trist Systems Paradigm and the Ilya Prigogine School of Thought Mary Bernard Bernard, Mary 65

6 Turbulence in the Indian Agricultural Sector: A Scenario Analysis Kees van der Heijden van der Heijden, Kees 87

7 Swarm Planning: A New Design Paradigm Dealing with Long-Term Problems Associated with Turbulence Rob E. Roggema Roggema, Rob E. 103

8 Designing More Effective Political Governance of Turbulent Fields: The Case of Healthcare Niklas Arvidsson Arvidsson, Niklas 131

9 To What Extent Do Venezuela's Causal Textures Allow Scenarios to Work towards Social Dialogue? Martin Thomas Thomas, Martin 147

10 Managing Disruptive Change and Turbulence through Continuous Change Thinking and Scenarios John W. Selsky Selsky, John W. Joseph E. McCann McCann, Joseph E. 167

11 Scenarios that Provide Clarity in Addressing Turbulence Rafael Ramirez Ramirez, Rafael 187

12 From Causal Textures toPredetermined Elements to New Realities in Scenario Thinking and Practice George Burt Burt, George 207

13 Conceptions of Fairness and Forming the Common Ground Shirin Elahi Elahi, Shirin 223

14 Turbulence and Corporate Social Responsibility: Is There a Role for Scenarios? Andromache Athanasopoulou Athanasopoulou, Andromache 243

15 Turbulence, Business Planning and the Unfolding Financial Crisis Kees van der Heijden van der Heijden, Kees Rafael Ramirez Ramirez, Rafael John W. Selsky Selsky, John W. Angela Wilkinson Wilkinson, Angela 261

16 Conclusion: The Conjuncture of Scenarios and Causal Textures - Contributions and Progress John W. Selsky Selsky, John W. Kees van der Heijden van der Heijden, Kees Rafael Ramirez Ramirez, Rafael 283

Postscript 293

Index 303

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