Calming the Ferghana Valley: Development and Dialogue in the Heart of Central Asia

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Overview

Of all the regions of the former Soviet Union, Central Asia is potentially one of the most explosive and certainly one of the least understood. It is also growing rapidly in importance to U.S. national security, commercial, and foreign policy interests: it has vast oil, gas, gold, and other resources; it has become a source and transit route for narcotics and possible nuclear and other materials; and it is affected by the fierce conflicts in Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Vast in size (larger than Eastern and Western Europe combined), and with a rapidly growing population of over 50 million people, it is marked by the persistence of relatively corrupt and authoritarian governments.

This report assesses the potential for conflict in Central Asia through the prism of one of its most volatile areas, the Ferghana Valley. Spanning parts of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, the Ferghana Valley is home to 20 percent of Central Asia's entire population. The region has recently experienced increasing religious and ethnic tensions--the further danger being that instability in the valley could spread more widely throughout Central Asia. The Ferghana Valley project of the Council on Foreign Relations' Center for Preventive Action (CPA) has produced this report as the fourth volume in its series of Preventive Action Reports.

Sponsored by The Council on Foreign Relations and The Century Foundation.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

"This report from an eminent group of US policymakers and conflict resolution specialists represents a very useful addition to the literature on Central Asia." —Alan Bullion, The Open University, UK, Ethnic Conflict- Research Digest, 9/1/2000

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780870784149
  • Publisher: The Century Foundation
  • Publication date: 12/28/1999
  • Series: Preventive Action Reports
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Pages: 196
  • Product dimensions: 5.90 (w) x 8.90 (h) x 0.60 (d)

Meet the Author

Sam Nunn is cochairman and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), a charitable organization working to reduce the global threat of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. He served as a U.S. senator from Georgia for 24 years. Barnett R. Rubin is director of studies and senior fellow at the Center on International Cooperation of New York University and was the founding director of the Center for Preventive Action. He is one of the world's leading experts on Afghanistan, and has advised both the UN and the U.S. government on this issue for many years. Nancy Lubin is president of JNA Associates, a consulting firm that works on projects and assessments concerning the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union.

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgments
Foreword
Preface: The Center for Preventative Action
Executive Summary
Pt. I Mission and Recommendations 1
1 Mission to the Ferghana Valley 3
2 Preventing Conflict in the Ferghana Valley: Recommendations 11
Pt. II Supporting Material 31
3 Background: Physical Setting and Historical Legacies 33
4 Social and Economic Tensions and Reforms 59
5 Political Factors 97
6 External Sources of Conflict and Stability 119
App. A United Nations Development Programme UNDP Proposal for a Ferghana Valley Development Programme, Draft Programme Outline 139
App. B Soros Foundation - Kyrgyzstan, Ferghana Project,Bishkek 1998 149
App. C Center for Preventative Action, Ferghana Valley Working Group 163
App. D Central Asian Resources on the Internet 169
App. E Center for Preventative Action Advisory Board 171
Notes 175
Index 187
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