Change and Continuity in the 2000 and 2002 Elections / Edition 1

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Political scientists from Duke and Michigan State Universities analyze the results of the United States federal elections for 2000 and 2002. Utilizing voter survey and campaign result data collected since the 1940s, they place the contests within the context of general voting and campaign patterns in the country. Exploring voting behavior in general, they discuss voter demographics, attitudes towards issues and candidates, and party loyalties and preferences. That framework is then applied to the 2000 and 2002 presidential and congressional elections. Annotation ©2003 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781568027425
  • Publisher: Congressional Quarterly, Inc.
  • Publication date: 1/28/2003
  • Series: Change and Continuity Series
  • Edition description: Older Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 372
  • Product dimensions: 6.38 (w) x 8.96 (h) x 0.70 (d)

Table of Contents

Tables and Figures vii
Preface xi
Part 1 The 2000 Presidential Election 1
1 The Nomination Struggle 12
Who Ran 13
The Rules of the Nomination System 17
Why Bush Won 23
Why Gore Won 25
The Conventions 27
2 The General Election Campaign 31
The Strategic Context and the Candidates' Choices 31
From Labor Day to the Debates 33
The Debates: The Republicans Surpass Low Expectations 36
Final Efforts 38
Did the Campaign Matter? 43
3 The Election Results 46
The Election Rules 51
The Pattern of Results 53
State-by-State Results 56
Electoral Change in the Postwar South 61
The Electoral-Vote Balance 63
Part 2 Voting Behavior in the 2000 Presidential Election 67
4 Who Voted? 71
Turnout from 1828 through 1920 71
Turnout from 1920 through 2000 74
Turnout among Social Groups 77
Why Has Turnout Declined? 84
Does Low Turnout Matter? 91
5 Social Forces and the Vote 96
How Social Groups Voted in 2000 97
How Social Groups Voted During the Postwar Years 106
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down 119
6 Candidates, Issues, and the Vote 121
Attitudes toward the Candidates 122
Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations 128
The Concerns of the Electorate 130
Issue Positions and Perceptions 132
Issue Voting Criteria 135
Apparent Issue Voting in 2000 139
Conclusion 148
7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice 149
What Is Retrospective Voting? 150
Evaluations of Government Performance 153
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent 156
Evaluations of the Incumbent 161
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations 161
Conclusion 166
8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote 168
Party Identification: The Standard View 168
Party Identification: An Alternative View 169
Party Identification in the Electorate 170
Party Identification and the Vote 176
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations 178
Conclusion 189
Part 3 The 2000 and 2002 Congressional Elections 193
9 Candidates and Outcomes in 2000 198
Election Outcomes in 2000 198
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes 209
The 2000 Elections: The Impact on Congress 220
The 2002 Elections and Beyond 227
10 The Congressional Electorate in 2000 238
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote 238
Issues and the Congressional Vote 242
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote 243
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote 244
The Congressional Vote as a Referendum 246
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote 248
Conclusion 250
11 The 2002 Congressional Elections 252
The Pattern of Outcomes 252
Assessing Victory and Explaining the Results 254
National and Local Influences in Congressional Elections 258
The 2002 Elections: The Impact on Congress 269
The 2004 Elections and Beyond 273
Part 4 The 2000 and 2002 Elections in Perspective 279
12 The 2000 and 2002 Elections and the Future of American Politics 282
Prospects for the Democrats 286
Prospects for the Republicans 290
Prospects for a New Political Party 293
Prospects for Continued Electoral Volatility 295
Notes 297
Suggested Readings 349
Index 359
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