ChangeWave Investing 2.0: Picking the Next Monster Stocks While Protecting Your Gains in a Volatile Market


Investment guru Tobin Smith reveals his secrets for scoring monster returns in today’s volatile stock market by focusing on the emerging sectors that have the best potential for explosive growth — what Smith refers to as ChangeWaves.

ChangeWave Investing 2.0 presents a radically improved method for picking the next monster stocks while ...

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ChangeWave Investing 2.0: Picking the Next Monster Stocks While Protecting Your Gains in a Volatile Market

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Investment guru Tobin Smith reveals his secrets for scoring monster returns in today’s volatile stock market by focusing on the emerging sectors that have the best potential for explosive growth — what Smith refers to as ChangeWaves.

ChangeWave Investing 2.0 presents a radically improved method for picking the next monster stocks while protecting current profits. Using the ChangeWave principles, the book explains:
·how to identify the stocks with the fastest growth potential before Wall Street does
·how to screen out the pretenders
·how to balance a portfolio between aggressive growth stocks and stocks with lower volatility
·how to use stop orders to limit losses from economic downturns
·how to invest limited resources for maximum returns

You’ll discover how to buy and sell in the midst of a seesaw, as well as receive savvy advice on the ways you can benefit from market meltdowns by systematically taking out positions at bargain basement prices.
From the rocketlike success of his first book, ChangeWave Investing, which hit the top of the business bestseller lists, to his role as contributing editor on Fox’s “Bulls and Bears,” to the rapid growth of the electronic network, Tobin Smith has broken onto the investment community with the momentum of a tsunami. Now, with ChangeWave Investing 2.0, readers can learn the strategies and techniques that will allow them to profit from the transformational change the economy is undergoing even in today’s bear market.

From the Hardcover edition.

ChangeWave Investing 2.0 presents a radically improved method for picking the next monster stocks while protecting profits...With ChangeWAve Investing 2.0, listeners can learn the strategies and techniques that will allow them to profit from the transformational change our economy is only beginning to experience.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780385502443
  • Publisher: Doubleday Publishing
  • Publication date: 10/16/2001
  • Edition description: 1ST
  • Pages: 256
  • Product dimensions: 6.50 (w) x 9.50 (h) x 1.15 (d)

Meet the Author

Tobin Smith is the founder and CEO of, which currently has 150,000 e-mail subscribers, and is vice president at Phillips International. He is the editor of the New Economy investment mewsletter and the managing partner and chief investment officer of ChangeWave Capital Partners, a private hedge fund. A contributing editor on Fox Cable News' Bull and Bears, and a regular commentator on CNN and CNBC, he also hosts a weekly chat on AOL and writes for Smart Business magazine. He lives in North Bethesda, Maryland.
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Read an Excerpt

ChangeWave Investing is a philosophy, a growth-stock-picking strategy, and portfolio-management system rolled into one. The basic philosophy is simple: I believe the greatest power driving the future appreciation or depreciation of business value (in other words, future amount of profitability) is transformational change.

That means incidences of transformational change at the industry or corporate level are the most accurate leaders of future stock appreciation.

I've found from my years of research into the dynamics of change and stock prices that transformational change, and how a company does or does not embrace and leverage it—more than any other business or analysis factor—determines the profitability, and thus the appreciation potential, of a company. Stock market bubbles notwithstanding, my research says that, in today's world, creating and managing transformational change and innovation is the strategy of building the economic value of a business—everything else is just tactics.

The primary takeaway from this entire book is this: If you are lucky enough to have found genuine transformational change beginning to explode within an industry or company, you've found a genuine investment opportunity—an investment opportunity that just could change your financial life forever.

Because when you find genuinely transformational change, you find big winners and big losers. What the ChangeWave strategy helps you do is:

-Find the highest-magnitude (read: "most profitable") transformational changes occurring within industries and

-Locate the sweet spots of investmentopportunity (read: "best-performing market spaces") within these waves of
transformation we call ChangeWave

-Put your money on the winning stocks within these hot market spaces and keep it away from the losers, the victims
of transformation change.

In other words, ChangeWave Investing helps you get "luckier" than most investors will ever be.

We use a set of simple rules to search for and analyze the magnitude of changes occurring in our economy to gain a relative context.. This set of rules acts like a "change analysis prism" to determine the biggest potential winners and losers in our perpetually changing world.

In ChangeWave Investing, we use fixed laws of human behavior to put the blurry snapshots of a rapidly changing world into focus. When you apply the virtually never-changing laws of human behavior to a rapidly changing business situation, repeatable patterns emerge that can significantly enhance your investment returns.

This lens or analytical prism acts as radar does for a pilot landing in a blur of fog. Rapid rates of change create a foglike condition that makes it very difficult for most investors, and indeed the financial community, to get their bearings. Our prism helps us see through the fog and discover the value hidden to most investors.

Perhaps Terry Matthews, self-made multibillionaire in telecom equipment, defined the ChangeWave Investing strategy best in an interview with Forbes magazine. "You've put yourself out on a board," he said. "A lot of waves come in, but only about one wave in ten is a big motherin' wave that will give you a great ride. That's the only wave I want to catch."

While I agree with Mr. Matthews wholeheartedly, I'd add one thought: While he is referring to the great waves of creative destruction in technology (where huge technological leaps lead telecom companies to rip out billions of dollars of old gear and replace it with billions of dollars of new gear), there are great waves of new spending and huge waves of increased profits in all types of industries.

Transformational change is an equal-opportunity wealth builder and destroyer. It is not just about tech stocks.

You as Master Change Analyst

The focus of ChangeWave Investing 2.0 is to show you how to become a successful change analyst. When you become one, you'll be able to apply your knowledge to making more money in your stock portfolio than you have ever made before.

What you actually become good at is separating true investable change from its lower-magnitude, less-profitable incremental change. (This skill is also quite beneficial in helping you to improve your business and career decisions, too.)

The key advantage ChangeWave investors hold is developing high levels of confidence in reading and reacting to rapidly transforming industries and companies a little earlier and a little better than everyone else does. Our ChangeWave portfolio management strategies also help you hold on to these winners during market turbulence when others sell prematurely.

Your Edge on the Market
In investing, you need only a little edge to outperform the market as a whole. The effectiveness of the ChangeWave Investing strategy in everyday buying and selling of stocks points to the impact of the edge we offer.

How effective? Well, the application of the strategy and buysellhold tactics has resulted in buying and selling stocks that have delivered on average 75%-a-year growth in our model portfolio since 1995. Including the Nasdaq crash of 2000-2001.

We'll start with the basic concepts and strategies necessary for you to become a first-class "change analyst," which is crucial to your success in monster-stock hunting. Then we'll get into the blocking and tackling of Growth Appropriate to the Business Cycle portfolio management, ChangeWave style.

But before we get to the strategy and tactics, given the crazy stock market of the twenty-first century so far, perhaps we should start with why you should bother investing in growth stocks in the first place.

Copyright 2001 by Tobin Smith
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  • Anonymous

    Posted November 6, 2001

    A Growth Investment Discipline with a Fine Track Record!

    A Growth Investment Discipline with a Fine Track Record! If you have read ChangeWave Investing, this book is not required reading. If you have not read ChangeWave Investing, I strongly urge you to read this book instead! The model portfolio that Mr. Smith operates has enjoyed ¿an average of 75%-a-year growth . . . since 1995. Including the Nasdaq crack of 2000-2001.¿ I assume the annual rate of growth is lower now, since the market has been weak since these words were probably written. Naturally, the portfolio has taken losses recently (the return is from 150 percent a year that was reported in ChangeWave Investing), but the overall result is certainly enviable. How will it do in the future? I don¿t know, but Mr. Smith is very optimistic. ¿Building a million-dollar investment portfolio is a simple game.¿ Well, I think most people would agree that it¿s not so simple, even if you have 50 years to accomplish it, unless you start with two million dollars. ChangeWave Investing is ¿a philosophy, a growth-stock-picking strategy, and portfolio management system all rolled into one.¿ Mr. Smith argues that technology will be over half of the U.S. economy by 2008, and the potential for sharp shifts in trends will be accelerated by dominance. The thought process is basically as follows. Find the biggest shifts going on in society (ChangeQuakes) which may come from economic (the light bulb extending night-time activities), technological (DSL), regulatory (end of fixed commissions on Wall Street), strategic (better business models like Dell¿s direct selling of PCs), or fad (Furby interactive toys) sources. There will also be second generation aftershocks, like HTML shifting into XML to provide more richness on the Internet. Then find the few companies with the Killer Value Propositions for these shifts that will ¿relieve pain/anxiety/stress (emotional or physical),¿ ¿deliver pleasure or hope (direct or indirect),¿ ¿satiate greed/build self-esteem/create wealth, status, or power,¿ or ¿reduce/eliminate fear/regret (provide safety, predictability).¿ Invest in the best two or three that have fine profit growth prospects. Use technical analysis to pick when to buy (typically when the 50 day moving average surpasses the 200 day moving average). If a stock tanks by 8-10% soon after you buy it, sell. If it goes up rapidly, buy more. Winnow down to own the ultimate market leader as soon as you can. Separately, you should have set a portfolio allocation for what percentage of your holdings will be in these rapidly growing stocks. You are encouraged to have a fair amount of your holdings in less rapidly growing stocks that will be more stable, but will be helped by large trends. You should also hold some cash. When I reviewed ChangeWave Investing, I predicted that there would be a 2.0 version. Having read the 2.0 version, I predict there will be a 3.0 version. There are still some important problems with this approach. One of them is valuation. As long as the trends and the technical indicators are positive, you are supposed to buy . . . no matter how high the price is. I suspect that you would do a lot better to buy the least expensive stocks in terms of their economic potential. No one can really forecast trends all that well. Another problem is a misunderstanding of growth. Like many people, Mr. Smith believes that all industries go through an ¿S¿ curve pattern. In my consulting practice, I have often been asked to look at rapid growth brought about by rapid changes, and have found that a knife-edge is a more typical pattern. In a knife-edge, the peak is reached very rapidly and then consumption drops immediately to much lower levels and stays there for some time. Getting out of stocks of companies serving this kind of demand can be quite challenging. Many will quickly fall by 95 percent or more. The book suggests using technical indicators to sell (the 50 day moving aver

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