China's Exchange Rate Policy: Options and Prescriptions

Overview

Over the past five years China has emerged as the world's largest global surplus economy; indeed by 2007-08 the size of its surplus relative to its GDP was of a magnitude unprecedented for a large trading economy. This development is especially surprising because in the first twenty-five years of economic reform, China's trade and current account surpluses were very small by East Asian standards. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the key economic challenges facing the Chinese authorities in light of...
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China's Exchange Rate Policy: Options and Prescriptions

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Overview

Over the past five years China has emerged as the world's largest global surplus economy; indeed by 2007-08 the size of its surplus relative to its GDP was of a magnitude unprecedented for a large trading economy. This development is especially surprising because in the first twenty-five years of economic reform, China's trade and current account surpluses were very small by East Asian standards. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the key economic challenges facing the Chinese authorities in light of the still undervalued exchange rate, the large build-up of foreign exchange reserves, and more recently, the sharp decline in economic growth. It analyzes the implications of China's exchange-rate policy for the effectiveness of monetary policy, the transition to a commercially oriented banking system, the evolving structure of output and demand, and the risk of protectionism abroad. The policy-options portion of the study takes account of the significant real effective appreciation of the RMB over the past fifteen months and will contrast the pros and cons of a "stay-the-course" policy with that of a bolder, "three-stage" approach that would seek to maintain recent progress and to reduce even further the undervaluation of the RMB.
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780881324167
  • Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Publication date: 6/1/2008
  • Pages: 112
  • Product dimensions: 5.90 (w) x 8.90 (h) x 0.30 (d)

Table of Contents

Preface vii

Acknowledgments xi

Introduction 1

1 Evolution of China's Exchange Rate Regime in the Reform Era 3

Transition to an Equilibrium Exchange Rate 4

Developments since Mid-2005 10

2 Challenges Facing the Chinese Authorities under the Existing Currency Regime 27

Independence of Monetary Policy 27

Rebalancing Economic Growth 33

Potential Effects of Renminbi Appreciation on China's Banking System 45

External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, and the Rising Risk of Protectionism 50

3 Policy Implications and Options 83

The Stay-the-Course Strategy 87

The Three-Stage Approach 94

References 97

Index 107

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