China's Futures: Scenarios for the World's Fastest Growing Economy, Ecology, and Society / Edition 1

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More About This Textbook

Overview

As it emerges from centuries of social, military, and political strife, China--which represents one-fifth of the world's population and its third largest economy--is poised to play a major role in global business. But what will that role be? In this book, two experts, who have created business scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations--including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola--present three very informed versions of how China's future may unfold in the coming years and what it means to the rest of the world. These scenarios provide a foundation on which today's companies can build sound business strategies for years to come.
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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
"...anyone concerned with the future of the region is likely to find this a useful read." (Long Range Planning, Vol.33, 2000)
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780787952006
  • Publisher: Wiley, John & Sons, Incorporated
  • Publication date: 1/24/2000
  • Edition description: 1 ED
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 176
  • Product dimensions: 6.34 (w) x 9.65 (h) x 0.79 (d)

Meet the Author

JAMES OGILVY and PETER SCHWARTZ are partners in Global Business Network (GBN), a consulting and research firm that is devoted to helping clients develop business strategies that fit the emerging realities of global markets. They are responsible for the widespread use of business scenarios, a process they pioneered in the early 1990s and which Schwartz made popular through his book The Art of the Long View.
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Read an Excerpt

Preface



We offer this book neither as futurists nor as experts on China, but as practitioners of the art of scenario planning. We cannot predict the future. No one can. Nor can we know enough about China to chart its direction with certainty. But in the face of these two vast imponderables, China and the future, we can apply the art and science of scenario planning to grapple with their combined and compounded uncertainties in a methodical and useful way.

J.O. and P.S.
November 1999

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Table of Contents

Preface.

Acknowledgements.

Introduction: China in the 21st Century: The World's Biggest Story.

THE WAY OF CHINA.

China Basics.

Driving Forces.

The Worms in the Core.

SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE OF CHINA.

An Introduction of Scenarios and Development Models.

Scenario One: China Web.

Scenario Two: The New Mandarins.

Scenario Three: The Thief of Beijing.

IMPLICATIONS HOW TO USE THESE SCENARIOS FOR OUR CHILDREN.

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