Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh

Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh

by Winston Yu, Mozaharul Alam, Ahmadul Hassan, Abu Saleh Khan
     
 

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ISBN-10: 1849711305

ISBN-13: 9781849711302

Pub. Date: 08/28/2010

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Managing climate variability and change remains a key development and food security issue in Bangladesh. Despite significant investments, floods, droughts and cyclones during the last two decades continue to cause extensive economic damage and impair livelihoods. Climate change will pose additional risks to ongoing efforts to reduce poverty. This book examines the

Overview

Managing climate variability and change remains a key development and food security issue in Bangladesh. Despite significant investments, floods, droughts and cyclones during the last two decades continue to cause extensive economic damage and impair livelihoods. Climate change will pose additional risks to ongoing efforts to reduce poverty. This book examines the implications of climate change on food security in Bangladesh and identifies adaptation measures in the agriculture sector using a comprehensive integrated framework.

First, the most recent science available is used to characterize current climate and hydrology and its potential changes. Second, country-specific survey and biophysical data is used to derive more realistic and accurate agricultural impact functions and simulations. A range of climate factors (i.e. warmer temperatures, higher carbon dioxide concentrations, changing characteristics of floods, droughts and potential sea level rise) is considered to gain a more complete picture of potential agriculture impacts. Third, while estimating changes in production is important, economic responses may to some degree buffer against the physical losses projected, and an assessment is made of these. Food security is dependent not only on production, but also future food requirements, income levels and commodity prices. Finally, adaptation possibilities are identified for the sector. This book is the first to combine these multiple disciplines and analytical procedures to comprehensively address these impacts. The framework will serve as a useful guide to design policy intervention strategies and investments in adaptation measures.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9781849711302
Publisher:
Taylor & Francis
Publication date:
08/28/2010
Series:
Earthscan Climate Series
Edition description:
1
Pages:
176
Product dimensions:
7.70(w) x 9.70(h) x 0.70(d)

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables vii

Acknowledgements xi

Foreword Isabel M. Guerrero xiii

Executive Summary xv

Glossary of Terms xxi

Acronyms xxiii

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Objective of Study 2

1.2 Literature Review 2

1.3 Integrated Modelling Methodology 3

1.4 Organization of Study 4

2 Vulnerability to Climate Risks 5

2.1 The Success of Agriculture 6

2.2 Living with Annual Floods 10

2.3 Lean Season Water Availability 15

2.4 Sea level Rise in Coastal Areas 17

2.5 Regional Hydrology Issues 19

3 Future Climate Scenarios 21

3.1 Future Estimated Precipitation and Temperature 22

3.2 Future Sea level Rise 26

4 Future Flood Hydrology 28

4.1 GBM Basin Model Development 28

4.2 National Hydrologic Super Model 30

4.3 Approach to Modelling Future Flood Changes 30

4.4 Future Changes over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin 31

4.5 Future Flood Characteristics and Analysis 33

5 Future Crop Performance 41

5.1 Development of the Baseline Period 42

5.2 Developing Flood Damage Functions 46

5.3 Incorporating Coastal Inundation Effects 48

5.4 Projections of Future Potential Unflooded Production (Climate Only) 49

5.5 Projections of Future Projected Flood Damages 52

5.6 Projections of Potential Coastal Inundation Damages 53

5.7 Projections of Integrated Damages 53

5.8 Using the Crop Model to Simulate Adaptation Options 56

6 Economy-Wide Impacts of Climate Risks 60

6.1 Integrating Climate Effects in an Economy-wide Model 61

6.2 Economic Impacts of Existing Climate Variability 64

6.3 Additional Economic Impacts of Climate Change 72

7 Adaptation Options in the Agriculture Sector 82

7.1 Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Options 83

8 The Way Forward - Turning Ideas to Action 105

8.1 A Framework for Assessing the Economics of Climate Change 107

Annex 1 Using DSSAT to Model Adaptation Impacts 108

Annex 2 Description of the CGE Model 113

Annex 3 Constructing the Social Accounting Matrix for Bangladesh 119

References 133

Index 139

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