Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh

Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh

by Winston Yu, Mozaharul Alam, Ahmadul Hassan, Abu Saleh Khan
     
 

ISBN-10: 1849711305

ISBN-13: 9781849711302

Pub. Date: 08/28/2010

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Managing climate variability and change remains a key development and food security issue in Bangladesh. Despite significant investments, floods, droughts and cyclones during the last two decades continue to cause extensive economic damage and impair livelihoods. Climate change will pose additional risks to ongoing efforts to reduce poverty. This book examines the

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Overview

Managing climate variability and change remains a key development and food security issue in Bangladesh. Despite significant investments, floods, droughts and cyclones during the last two decades continue to cause extensive economic damage and impair livelihoods. Climate change will pose additional risks to ongoing efforts to reduce poverty. This book examines the implications of climate change on food security in Bangladesh and identifies adaptation measures in the agriculture sector using a comprehensive integrated framework.

First, the most recent science available is used to characterize current climate and hydrology and its potential changes. Second, country-specific survey and biophysical data is used to derive more realistic and accurate agricultural impact functions and simulations. A range of climate factors (i.e. warmer temperatures, higher carbon dioxide concentrations, changing characteristics of floods, droughts and potential sea level rise) is considered to gain a more complete picture of potential agriculture impacts. Third, while estimating changes in production is important, economic responses may to some degree buffer against the physical losses projected, and an assessment is made of these. Food security is dependent not only on production, but also future food requirements, income levels and commodity prices. Finally, adaptation possibilities are identified for the sector. This book is the first to combine these multiple disciplines and analytical procedures to comprehensively address these impacts. The framework will serve as a useful guide to design policy intervention strategies and investments in adaptation measures.

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Product Details

ISBN-13:
9781849711302
Publisher:
Taylor & Francis
Publication date:
08/28/2010
Series:
Earthscan Climate Series
Edition description:
1
Pages:
176
Product dimensions:
7.70(w) x 9.70(h) x 0.70(d)

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables

Acknowledgements

Foreword

Executive Summary Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M.

Glossary of Terms Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M.

Acronyms Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M.

1 Introduction Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 1

1.1 Objectives of Study Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 2

1.2 Literature Review Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 2

1.3 Integrated Modelling Methodology Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 3

1.4 Organization of Study Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 4

2 Vulnerability To Climate Risks Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 5

2.1 The Success of Agriculture Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 6

2.2 Living with Annual Floods Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 10

2.3 Lean Season Water Availability Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 15

2.4 Sea level Rise in Coastal Areas Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 17

2.5 Regional Hydrology Issues Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 19

3 Future Climate Scenarios Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 21

3.1 Future Estimated Precipitation and Temperature Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 22

3.2 Future Sea level Rise Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 26

4 Future Flood Hydrology Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 28

4.1 GBM Basin Model Development Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 28

4.2 National Hydrologic Super Model Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 30

4.3 Approach to Modelling Future Flood Changes Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 30

4.4 Future Changes over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 31

4.5 Future Flood Characteristics and Analysis Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 33

5 Future Crop Performance Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 41

5.1 Development of the Baseline Period Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 42

5.2 Developing Flood Damage Functions Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 46

5.3 Incorporating Coastal Inundation Effects Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 48

5.4 Projections of Future Potential Unflooded Production (Climate Only) Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 49

5.5 Projections of Future Projected Flood Damages Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 52

5.6 Projections of Potential Coastal Inundation Damages Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 53

5.7 Projections of Integrated Damages Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 53

5.8 Using the Crop Model to Simulate Adaptation Options Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 56

6 Economy-Wide Impacts Of Climate Risks Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 60

6.1 Integrating Climate Effects in an Economy-wide Model Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 61

6.2 Economic Impacts of Existing Climate Variability Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 64

6.3 Additional Economic Impacts of Climate Change Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 72

7 Adaptation Options In The Agriculture Sector Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 82

7.1 Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Options Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 83

8 The Way ForwardTurning Ideas To Action Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 105

8.1 A Framework for Assessing the Economics of Climate Change Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 107

Annex 1 Using DSSAT to Model Adaptation Impacts Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 108

Annex 2 Description of the CGE Model Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 113

Annex 3 Constructing the Social Accounting Matrix for Bangladesh Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 119

References Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 133

Index Isabel M. Guerrero Guerrero, Isabel M. 139

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