Combating Proliferation

Overview

The intelligence community's flawed assessment of Iraq's weapons systems?and the Bush administration's decision to go to war in part based on those assessments?illustrates the political and policy challenges of combating the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In this comprehensive assessment, defense policy specialists Jason Ellis and Geoffrey Kiefer find disturbing trends in both the collection and analysis of intelligence and in its use in the development and ...

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Combating Proliferation: Strategic Intelligence and Security Policy

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Overview

The intelligence community's flawed assessment of Iraq's weapons systems—and the Bush administration's decision to go to war in part based on those assessments—illustrates the political and policy challenges of combating the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In this comprehensive assessment, defense policy specialists Jason Ellis and Geoffrey Kiefer find disturbing trends in both the collection and analysis of intelligence and in its use in the development and implementation of security policy.

Analyzing a broad range of recent case studies—Pakistan's development of nuclear weapons, North Korea's defiance of U.N. watchdogs, Russia's transfer of nuclear and missile technology to Iran and China's to Pakistan, the Soviet biological warfare program, weapons inspections in Iraq, and others—the authors find that intelligence collection and analysis relating to WMD proliferation are becoming more difficult, that policy toward rogue states and regional allies requires difficult tradeoffs, and that using military action to fight nuclear proliferation presents intractable operational challenges.

Ellis and Kiefer reveal that decisions to use—or overlook—intelligence are often made for starkly political reasons. They document the Bush administration's policy shift from nonproliferation, which emphasizes diplomatic tools such as sanctions and demarches, to counterproliferation, which at times employs interventionist and preemptive actions. They conclude with cogent recommendations for intelligence services and policy makers.

Johns Hopkins University Press

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Editorial Reviews

Choice

Ellis and Kiefer, professional U.S. government threat assessors, present an excellent, informative, stark, nonpolemical, and persuasive analysis of the challenges for the U.S. in its monumental task of combating proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Choice

Ellis and Kiefer, professional U.S. government threat assessors, present an excellent, informative, stark, nonpolemical, and persuasive analysis of the challenges for the U.S. in its monumental task of combating proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Midwest Book Review

Both college-level military and political science holdings will find this a key addition promoting understanding, debate and classroom discussions.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780801886263
  • Publisher: Hopkins Fulfillment Service
  • Publication date: 12/22/2006
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Pages: 316
  • Product dimensions: 6.00 (w) x 9.00 (h) x 0.71 (d)

Meet the Author

Jason D. Ellis, previously senior research professor at the National Defense University, is senior advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Geoffrey D. Kiefer is a researcher at the National Defense University's Center for Counterproliferation Research.

Johns Hopkins University Press

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Table of Contents

1 Proliferation 101 : a dynamic threat, an evolving response 1
2 Standards of evidence : intelligence judgments and policy determinations 23
3 Through a glass darkly : estimative uncertainties and policy trade-offs 57
4 Intelligence surprise : deception, innovation, proliferation 87
5 Intelligence sharing : prospective risks, potential rewards 109
6 Military support : intelligence in an operational context 145
7 Warfighting in a WMD context : intelligence gaps, operational capabilities, and policy implications 167
8 Combating proliferation : toward a national strategy 192
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