Contemporary Intelligence Warning Cases: Learning from Successes and Failures

by Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning (Editor), Stig Stenslie (Editor)

Overview

Contemporary Intelligence Warning Cases presents lessons learned and recommendations for producers and users of intelligence warning in their joint venture to anticipate, prepare for, mitigate, and prevent future threats to national security.

It presents and synthesizes the findings of 16 contemporary intelligence warning case studies undertaken by leading intelligence scholars and former intelligence practitioners. It is the first multi-case study of intelligence warning and adopts a uniquely broad and contemporary approach to the phenomenon, featuring both successful and failed cases. Consistent with the increasing complexity of intelligence problems and scope of intelligence services, it ranges from traditional warning problems such as invasions and wars, through terrorist attacks, to threats that lie beyond the traditional core scope of intelligence services such as pandemics, financial crises, climate change, strategic acquisitions and attacks on cultural heritage.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781399531894
Publisher:	Edinburgh University Press
Publication date:	12/31/2024
Series:	Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare
Pages:	376
Product dimensions:	6.14(w) x 9.21(h) x 0.00(d)

About the Author

Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning is Deputy Research Director and Deputy Head of the Centre for Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Intelligence School (NORIS), Oslo.

Stig Stenslie is Research Director and Head of the Centre for Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Intelligence School (NORIS), and Professor at Oslo New UniversityCollege, Oslo.

Table of Contents

List of Contributors

Abbreviations

Introduction: Warning – The Highest Purpose and Most Challenging Mission of Intelligence
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning & Stig Stenslie

1. Punggye-ri, 2006 – North Korea’s First Nuclear Test
Soo Kim

2. London, 2006 – The al-Qaeda Transatlantic Bomb Plot
Michael S. Goodman

3. Tbilisi, 2008 – Russia Invades Georgia
Daniela Richterova

4. Wall Street, 2008 – The Global Financial Crisis
John A. Gentry

5. In Amenas, 2013 – Terrorists Attack Petroleum Interests
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning

6. Crimea 2014 – Russia’s Annexation of Crimea
Tom Røseth & Tobias Sæther

7. Mosul 2014 – The Rise of ISIS
Nikki Ikani

8. Palmyra, 2015 – ISIS Attacks Cultural Heritage Sites
Zeynep Egeli & Lars Haugom

9. Paris 2015 – ISIS Attacks Paris
Pauline Blistène

10. Kyiv, 2015 – Russia’s Cyber-Attack on Ukraine’s Power Grid
Aaron Brantly

11. Wuhan, 2019 – A Global Pandemic
Damien van Puyvelde

12. Capitol Hill, 2021 – Insurrection in Washington DC
Stephen Coulthart

13. Bergen, 2021 – Russia’s Strategic Acquisition Bid on Bergen Engines AS
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning

14: Kabul, 2021 – The Taliban Overtakes Kabul
Kristian Gustafson

15: Kyiv, 2022 – Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
Huw Dylan

16: Sindh, 2022 – Climate Change Floods in Pakistan
Stig Stenslie

Conclusion: Towards Better Warning – Lessons and Recommendations for Intelligence
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning & Stig Stenslie

References

Index

Editorial Reviews

Chock full of teachable lessons grounded in historical context and is particularly valuable for consumers of intelligence to help them understand that whether they have gotten the detailed tactical warning they’d prefer or not, their lot in life is to now make hard decisions under conditions of uncertainty and to understand that making no decision in the face of warning because of the absence of a more complete picture is a decision.

International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence - J. Paul Pope

This book is an important contribution to the study of intelligence warning. The wide selection of case studies is especially valuable, including not only cases of traditional warning such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also non-traditional warning of threats such as natural disasters, pandemics, and financial crises.

Erik J. Dahl

An excellent addition to the scholarly literature on warning and deserves a place in organizational and personal libraries. It performs an essential service, filling gaps in the case study literature by adding a series of contemporary cases explored from various intellectual and national perspectives and touching on topics not commonly associated with intelligence warning.

Studies in Intelligence - Johnathan Proctor