Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History

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Written by a pioneer of quantitative economic history, this book seeks to identify the forces which explain how and why some parts of the world have grown rich and others have lagged behind. Encompassing 2000 years of history, part 1 begins with the Roman Empire and explores the key factors that have influenced economic development in Africa, Asia, the Americas and Europe. Part 2 covers the development of macroeconomic tools of analysis from the 17th century to the present. Part 3 looks to the future and considers what the shape of the world economy might be in 2030. Combining both the quantitative analysis for which Professor Maddison is famous with a qualitative approach that takes into account the complexity of the forces at work, this book provides students and all interested readers with a totally fascinating overview of world economic history. Professor Maddison has the unique ability to synthesise vast amounts of information into a clear narrative flow that entertains as well as informs, making this text an invaluable resource for all students and scholars, and anyone trying to understand why some parts of the World are so much richer than others.

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"The scope of the books is sweeping and ambitious.... Recommended."—CHOICE
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780199227204
  • Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
  • Publication date: 12/5/2007
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Pages: 448
  • Sales rank: 947,729
  • Product dimensions: 9.60 (w) x 6.70 (h) x 0.90 (d)

Meet the Author

Angus Maddison is Emeritus Professor of Economic Sociology at the University of Groningen. Known for his pioneering work in the field of the quantification of economic growth in the global and historic perspective, Professor Maddison has enjoyed a varied career. He has held a number of positions at St. Andrews University, Johns Hopkins University, MacGill University, the OECD, and Harvard University. He has also acted as a policy advisor for a number of institutions and advised the governments of Ghana and Pakistan. Prof. Maddison was recently awarded the title of Commander in the Order of Orange-Nassau in the Netherlands.

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Table of Contents

List of Figures viii

List of Tables ix

List of Boxes xiii

Acknowledgements xiv

Introduction and Summary 1

The Contours of World Development 2

The History of Macro-Measurement 5

The Shape of Things to Come 6

Part I Contours of World Development, 1-2003AD

1 The Roman Empire and its Economy 11

Introduction 11

Key Characteristics Accounting for Roman Success in Empire Building 13

Conquest of the Italian Peninsula, 396-191BC 17

The Empire Building Process 18

The Disintegration of the Empire 30

Roman Demography 32

Roman Income 43

Endnotes 60

Bibliography 62

2 The Resurrection of Western Europe and the Transformation of the Americas 69

Why and When did the West Get Rich? 69

The Driving Forces that Explain the Acceleration in Western Growth since 1820 73

Changes in the Structure of Demand and Employment 74

The European Transformation of the Americas, 1500-1820 87

Endnotes 105

References 108

3 The Interaction Between Asia and the West, 1500-2003 111

European-Asian Interaction from 1500 to 1820 112

The Impact of Asian Trade on Europe, 1500-1820 115

The Impact of Europe on Asia, 1500-1820 116

Endnotes 178

References 179

4 The Impact of Islam and Europe on African Development: 1-2003AD 183

Introduction 183

The European Impact on North Africa Before the Seventh Century 185

The Islamic Conquest and its Implications 188

Egypt as an Islamic State 193

The Maghreb and the Initiation of Trans-Saharan Trade in Gold and Slaves 206

The Changing Character of Moroccan Dynasties and their Interaction with Europe and Black Africa 209

Black Africa and the Impact of Islam 214

The European Encounter with Africa 217

Africa from 1820to 1960 227

Post-Colonial Africa, 1960 Onwards 231

Appendix: The Crusades 1096-1270 237

Endnotes 239

References 240

Part II Advances in Macro-Measurement Since 1665

5 Political Arithmeticians and Historical Demographers: The Pioneers of Macro-Measurement 249

William Petty (1623-87) 250

John Graunt: The First Demographer (1620-74) 256

Gregory King (1648-1712) and Charles Davenant (1656-1714) 258

Patrick Colquhoun (1745-1820) 282

French Political Arithmetic, 1695-1707 284

Macro-Measurement in the Nineteenth and First Half of the Twentieth Century 287

Bibliography 288

6 Modern Macro-Measurement: How Far Have We Come? 294

Development of Macro-Measurement as a Tool of Economic Policy since 1950 295

Quantifying and Interpreting World Economic Growth from 1820 Onwards 301

Economic Performance in the Merchant Capitalist Epoch: 1500-1820 307

The Roots of Modernity: 'Takeoff' or Long Apprenticeship 315

Appendices 316

Endnotes 321

Bibliography 323

Part III The Shape of Things to Come

7 The World Economy in 2030 335

Projections of Population and Changes in Demographic Characteristics 335

Assumptions Underlying the Projections of Per Capita GDP 338

The Relationship Between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions, and Global Warming 347

The Impact of Climate Change 360

The Kyoto Protocol 362

The Report of the House of Lords on Climate Change 362

The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change 363

Conclusions on Global Warming 366

Appendix 367

Endnotes 369

Bibliography 370


Statistical Appendix A 375

Statistical Appendix B: Ingredients of Growth Accounts in Japan, UK, and USA, 1820-2003 384

Index 387

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Sort by: Showing all of 2 Customer Reviews
  • Posted September 8, 2009

    I Also Recommend:

    Excellent studies in economic history

    This is a fascinating and brilliant collection of studies in economic history. In Part 1, he looks at various periods of history. Chapter 1 studies the Roman Empire, then the richest part of the world, and "peninsular Italy and its ruling oligarchy were the main gainers." Chapter 2 looks at the years 1500-1820, at Western Europe's unparalleled progress and the transformation of the Americas.

    Chapter 3 examines the West's impact on Asia since 1500, particularly the effects that Portugal, the Netherlands and Britain had on China, India, Indonesia and Japan. Chapter 4 looks at the impact of Islam and Europe on Africa since 1 AD. He notes that North Africa was, from the 1st century until the Muslim conquest in the 7th century, a wealthy part of the Roman Empire.

    In Part 2, Maddison looks at the advances in macro-measurement made by William Petty (1623-87), 'one of the finest examples of the English Enlightenment', John Graunt (1620-74), the first demographer, and Gregory King (1648-1712) who produced estimates of the population of England and Wales, and of income and expenditure. Maddison shows how the evidence has refuted Kondratiev's notion of long waves and Malthus's dismal scaremongering.

    In Part 3, Maddison critiques the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 'Special Report on Emissions Scenarios'. This assumes growth that in the OECD countries (the world's richest countries), income per head 1990 to 2100 would rise between from $19K to $109K, in the former socialist countries from $2.4K to $101K, in Asia from $536 to $72K, and in Africa from $1.6K to $61K. Thus the total GDP of Africa, Latin America and some Middle Eastern oil-producing countries would become far bigger than the OECD countries' total GDP. Maddison comments mildly that this "seems implausible and differs sharply from historical experience."

    Yet, as he points out, "This assumption is a major driving force in projected energy use and carbon emissions." On this basis, the IPCC forecast a temperature rise of between 0.5 to 1.30C by 2030. He judges, "In view of my scepticism about the higher IPCC projections of GDP, energy consumption and emissions, the lower end of their temperature projections seems the more plausible."

    He also observes that the earth's temperature fell between 1945 and 1976, when we had record GDP growth of more than 4% a year. As he notes, "It is odd that the cooling happened when the pace of world economic growth was a good deal faster than in 1910-45 and 1976-2000."

    1 out of 1 people found this review helpful.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted September 30, 2008

    Readable, interesting and revealing.

    I enjoyed this book. The facts are easily understandable and the statisrics are worthwil even for a layman like me. Its almost like an introduction to this subject.

    1 out of 1 people found this review helpful.

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