Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

by David T. Moore

Overview

This National Defense Intelligence College publication defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entire intelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit. "David Moore has added his powerful voice to those calling for America's intelligence analysts to be more self-conscious about their methods and more venturesome in applying more formal methods." - Gregory F. Treverton, Rand Corp. ". . .a valuable initiative on behalf of the Intelligence Community" - Francis J. Hughes, National Defense Intelligence College.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781482068924
Publisher:	CreateSpace Publishing
Publication date:	01/25/2013
Series:	Occasional Paper , #14
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	158
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 0.34(d)

About the Author

Agency/Author Bio: David T. Moore is a career senior intelligence analyst and technical director at the National Security Agency. Moore is an adjunct faculty member of the National Cryptologic School and has taught at the National Defense Intelligence College, and Trinity University, both in Washington, DC.
Mr. Moore holds a B.A. in sociology from Washington and Lee University and a Master of Science of Strategic Intelligence from the National Defense Intelligence College. He is the author of numerous publications on intelligence. Moore’s expertise in intelligence analysis competencies, methods, and standards was developed over two decades of intelligence assignments, both in Washington, DC area and abroad. This publication builds on six years of advocacy for, and mentoring of, best practices in intelligence.

Table of Contents

“Table of Contents:

Figures and Tables................................................................v

Preface ..................................................................................vii

Foreword

Mark M. Lowenthal.............................................................. ix

Commentary

Jeffrey R. Cooper.................................................................. xiii

Francis J. Hughes.................................................................. xvi

Gregory F. Treverton............................................................ xvii

Acknowledgments....................................................................... xix

Abstract.......................................................................................... 1

Definitions...................................................................................... 2

Introduction: How Do People Reason?......................................... 3

What Is Critical Thinking?............................................................ 8

Defining Critical Thinking................................................. 8

Standards for Critical Thinking....................................... 10

Skill-Based Definitions..................................................... 13

A Disposition to Think Critically..................................... 15

The Role of Questions..................................................... 17

Pseudo-Critical Thinking................................................. 18

What Can Be Learned from the Past?

Thinking Critically about Cuba............................................. 20

Deploying the Missiles..................................................... 20

Assessing the Implications................................................ 24

Between Dogmatism and Refutation............................... 26

Lacking: Disconfirmation................................................. 29

The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis....... 33

Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context..................... 37

Ten Years Later, They Meet Again.................................. 45

Judgment: Critical Thinking Would Have Made a Difference.. 46

How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?.........48

The Poor Record...............................................................48

Assessing Evidence............................................................51

Facilitating Evidentiary Assessment................................. 56

Embracing a Methodology.............................................. 57

Creating Better Inferences............................................... 58

Producing Intelligence..................................................... 59

How can Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?....................... 61

Critical Thinking Education Outside the Intelligence Community..61

Critical Thinking Education Inside the Intelligence Community...64

Implications of Teaching Critical Thinking.................... 66

Evaluating Teaching Models............................................ 68

Encouraging Analysts to Think Critically........................ 69

Persuading to Improve Analysis....................................... 70

How Does Critical Thinking Transform?.................................... 74

Transforming Intelligence Corporations.......................... 74

Learning from Early Adopters......................................... 75

The Costs and Benefits of Thinking Critically................ 76

Validation......................................................................... 84

What Other Points of View Exist?............................................... 86

What Does the Future Hold?....................................................... 90

Conclusion................................................................................... 95

Appendix: NSA’s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus..97

Bibliography............................................................................... 117

About the Author....................................................................... 133

Colophon................................................................................... 134”