Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century / Edition 1

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Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today1s security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats. This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I through Somalia in the early 1990s to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780833042132
  • Publisher: Rand Publishing
  • Publication date: 9/25/2008
  • Series: Rand Corporation Monograph Ser.
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 274
  • Product dimensions: 6.00 (w) x 8.90 (h) x 0.80 (d)

Meet the Author

Kevin Pollpeter (MA, International Policy Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies) is a research assistant at RAND whose research interests include Asian and Chinese security issues and nonproliferation issues.

Roger Cliff (Ph.D., International Relations, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University) is an Associate Political Scientist, RAND, Washington DC. Areas of research include U.S. policy toward China, Chinese arms transfers, technological progress in China, and Chinese military technology.

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Table of Contents



Ch. 1 Introduction 1

Ch. 2 The Nature of Escalation 7

Ch. 3 China's Thinking on Escalation: Evidence from Chinese Military Writings 47

Ch. 4 Regional Nuclear Powers 83

Ch. 5 Escalation in Irregular Warfare 117

Ch. 6 Managing Escalation in a Complex World 159

App. A China, Force, and Escalation: Continuities Between Historical Behavior and Contemporary Writings 177

App. B Case Studies of Escalation in Stability Operations 197

App. C Modified Method for Delphi Analyses 221

Bibliography 225

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