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Decision analysis integrates insights and techniques from economics, probability, and cognitive psychology for the purpose of making good decisions. This book presents practical advice for decision making in all these contexts. It offers step-by-step procedures for defining the problem, identifying objectives, identifying alternatives, forecasting each alternative's potential, comparing forecasts, and choosing the most favorable alternative. A student-friendly guide, it incorporates DPL decision support software and practical, balanced coverage.
The Context of Decision Making.
Problem Definition and Structuring.
Identifying Objectives and Creating a Value Tree.
Identifying Alternatives and Creativity.
Forecasting and Subjective Assessment.
Comparing Alternatives and Utility Theory.
Selection and Sensitivity Analysis.