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Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management / Edition 1

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Overview

Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management is a comprehensive textbook that provides a logical process for fact-based decision making for the most challenging systems problems. Grounded in systems thinking and based on sound systems engineering principles, the systems decision process (SDP) leverages both multiple-objective decision analysis and value-focused thinking to define the problem, measure stakeholder value, design creative solutions, explore the decision trade space, and structure successful solution implementation.

The book is composed of three bedrock elements to improve readers' understanding and analysis of the most challenging systems problems that exist today: Systems thinking, which introduces a powerful mental framework necessary to identify important interconnections between a system and its environment, Systems engineering, which describes the activities of professional systems engineers and distinguishes the discipline from other engineering fields, Systems decision making, which provides fact-based information to support major system decisions made at each system life cycle stage.

Complemented with examples, exercises, and case studies, this book serves as the foundation of an undergraduate program for systems engineering or engineering management. It is also appropriate as a supplemental text at the graduate level and is a valuable reference for systems engineering and engineering management professionals.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
"Whereas the first edition was intended primarily for an undergraduate course, this second edition incorporates material that allows for the adaptation of the text to the graduate level." (Booknews, 1 February 2011)
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780470165706
  • Publisher: Wiley, John & Sons, Incorporated
  • Publication date: 2/8/2008
  • Series: Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management Series , #56
  • Edition description: Older Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 480
  • Sales rank: 1,209,020
  • Product dimensions: 6.48 (w) x 9.55 (h) x 1.13 (d)

Meet the Author

GREGORY S. PARNELL, PhD, has been Professor of Systems Engineering in the Department of Systems Engineering at the United States Military Academy at West Point since 1999. He has also taught at Virginia Commonwealth University and the Air Force Institute of Technology. Dr. Parnell is a Fellow of the International Committee for Systems Engineering.

PATRICK J. DRISCOLL, PhD, has been Professor of Operations Research in the Department of Systems Engineering at the United States Military Academy since 2001. From 2004 to 2007 he held the USMA Transformation Chair, and was program director for systems engineering from 2004 to 2005.

DALE L. HENDERSON, PhD, was an assistant professor in the Department of Systems Engineering at the United States Military Academy from 2005 to 2009. He is currently a Senior Military Analyst for the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command Analysis Center in Virginia.

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Table of Contents

Foreword     xvii
Preface     xix
Thoughts for Instructors     xxiii
Contributors     xxvii
Acknowledgments     xxxiii
Acronyms     xxxv
Introduction   Gregory S. Parnell   Patrick J. Driscoll     1
Purpose     1
System     3
Stakeholders     3
System Life Cycle     5
Systems Thinking     7
Systems Engineering Thought Process     8
Systems Engineering     10
Engineering Management     11
Systems Decision Process     12
Overview     13
Exercises     14
References     15
Systems Thinking
Systems Thinking   Patrick J. Driscoll     19
Introduction     19
Structure     23
Classification     24
Boundaries     26
Visibility     29
IDEF[phi] Models     31
Mathematical Structure     38
Spatial Arrangement     44
Evolution     47
Summary     48
Exercises     49
References     52
System Life Cycle   Patrick J. Driscoll     55
Introduction     55
System Life Cycle Model     58
Establish System Need     58
Develop System Concept     60
Design and Develop System     60
Produce System     61
Deploy System     61
Operate System     62
Retire System     63
Other Major System Life Cycle Models     63
Risk Analysis in the System Life Cycle     67
Risk Assessment in the System Life Cycle     69
Prioritizing Risks for Risk Management     71
Summary     75
Exercises     76
References     77
Systems Modeling and Analysis   Paul D. West   John E. Kobza   Simon R. Goerger     79
Introduction     79
Developing System Measures     80
Modeling the System Design     82
What Models Are     83
Why We Use Models     83
Role of Models in Solution Design     85
Qualities of Useful Models     85
The Modeling Process - How We Build Models     88
Create a Conceptual Model     88
Construct the Model     90
Exercise the Model     90
Revise the Model     92
The Model Toolbox: Types of Models, Their Characteristics, and Uses     92
Characteristics of Models     95
The Model Toolbox     98
Simulation Modeling     105
Analytical Solutions versus Simulation; When it is Appropriate to Use Simulation     105
Simulation Tools     106
Determining Required Sample Size     111
Summary     114
Exercises     114
References     116
Life Cycle Costing   Edward Pohl   Heather Nachtmann     119
Introduction to Life Cycle Costing     119
Introduction to Cost Estimating Techniques     121
Types of Costs     125
Cost Estimation Techniques     126
Estimating by Analogy Using Expert Judgment     127
Parametric Estimation Using Cost Estimating Relationships     128
Learning Curves     141
System Cost for Systems Decision Making     147
Time Value of Money     147
Inflation     148
Net Present Value     151
Breakeven Analysis and Replacement Analysis     152
Risk and Uncertainty in Cost Estimation     152
Monte Carlo Simulation Analysis     153
Sensitivity Analysis     157
Summary     158
Exercises     159
References     161
Systems Engineering
Introduction to Systems Engineering   Gregory S. Parnell     165
Introduction     165
Definition of System     165
Brief History of Systems Engineering     166
Systems Trends that Challenge System Engineers     166
Three Fundamental Tasks of Systems Engineers     167
Relationship of Systems Engineers to Other Engineering Disciplines     170
Education and Training of Systems Engineers     170
Exercises     171
References     172
Systems Engineering In Professional Practice   Roger C. Burk     173
The Systems Engineer in the Engineering Organization     173
The Systems Engineering Job     173
Three Systems Engineering Perspectives     174
Organizational Placement of Systems Engineers     175
Systems Engineering Activities     175
Establish System Need     176
Develop System Concept     177
Design and Develop the System      177
Produce System     178
Deploy System     178
Operate System     178
Retire System     178
The Systems Engineer and Others     178
The SE and the Program Manager     178
The SE and the Customer, the User, and the Consumer     180
The SE and the CTO or CIO     180
The SE and the Operations Researcher or System Analyst     181
The SE and the Configuration Manager     181
The SE and the Life-Cycle Cost Estimator     181
The SE and the Engineering Manager     181
The SE and the Discipline Engineer     182
The SE and the Test Engineer     182
The SE and the Specialty Engineer     182
The SE and the Industrial Engineer     183
The SE and Quality Assurance     183
Building an Interdisciplinary Team     183
Team Fundamentals     183
Team Attitude     184
Team Selection     185
Team Life Cycle     185
Systems Engineering Responsibilities     186
Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP)     186
Technical Interface with Users and Consumers     187
System Requirements Analysis and Management      187
System Architecting     188
Interface Control Documents (ICDs)     189
Test and Evaluation Master Plan (TEMP)     189
Configuration Management (CM)     190
Specialty Engineering     190
Major Program Technical Reviews     191
System Integration and Test     192
Roles of the System Engineer     192
Characteristics of the Ideal Systems Engineer     193
Summary     194
Exercises     195
References     196
System Effectiveness   Edward Pohl     197
Introduction to System Effectiveness     197
Reliability Modeling     198
Mathematical Models in Reliability     199
Common Continuous Reliability Distributions     203
Common Discrete Distributions     210
Basic System Models     214
Series System     214
Parallel System     215
K-out-of-N Systems     215
Complex Systems     216
Component Reliability Importance Measures     218
Importance Measure for Series System     218
Importance Measure for Parallel System     219
Reliability Allocation and Improvement     219
Markov Models of Repairable Systems     222
Kolmogorov Differential Equations     222
Transient Analysis     223
Steady State Analysis     225
CTMC Models of Repairable Systems     225
Modeling Multiple Machine Problems     227
Conclusions     232
Exercises     232
References     240
Systems Decision Making
Systems Decision Process Overview   Gregory S. Parnell   Paul D. West     243
Introduction     243
Value-Focused Versus Alternative-Focused Thinking     244
Decision Quality     246
Systems Decision Process     247
Role of Stakeholders     249
Role of Decision Makers     250
Environment     251
Comparison with Other Processes     253
When to Use the Systems Decision Process     253
Need     254
Resources     254
Decision Maker and Stakeholder Support     254
Tailoring the Systems Decision Process to the Systems Engineering Project     254
Example of Use of the Systems Decision Process     257
Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)-Summary and Introduction     258
Exercises     260
References     261
Problem Definition   Timothy Trainor   Gregory S. Parnell     263
Introduction     263
Introduction to the Problem Definition Phase     264
Comparison with Other Systems Engineering Processes     266
Purpose of the Problem Definition Phase     266
Chapter Example     266
Stakeholder Analysis     267
Introduction     267
Techniques for Stakeholder Analysis     268
Stakeholder Analysis for the Rocket System Decision Problem     278
Conclusion     279
Functional Analysis     279
Terminology     279
Importance of Functional Analysis     280
Functional Analysis Techniques     280
Conclusion     288
Value Modeling     289
Introduction     289
Definitions Used in Value Modeling     289
Qualitative Value Modeling     290
Quantitative Value Model     294
Conclusion     301
Output of the Problem Definition Phase: Problem Statement, Screening Criteria, and Value Model      303
Introduction     303
Discussion     303
Conclusion     304
Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)-Problem Definition     304
Exercises     313
References     313
Solution Design   Paul D. West     317
Introduction to Solution Design     317
Survey of Idea Generation Techniques     319
Brainstorming     319
Brainwriting     322
Affinity Diagramming     322
Delphi     322
Groupware     324
Lateral and Parallel Thinking and Six Thinking Hats     325
Morphology     325
Ends-Means Chains     327
Existing or New Options     327
Other Ideation Techniques     327
Turning Ideas into Alternatives     328
Alternative Generation Approaches     329
Feasibility Screening     330
Enhancing Solution Candidates     332
Modeling Alternatives     332
Simulating Alternatives     332
Design of Experiments     333
Fractional Factorial Design     339
Pareto Analysis     349
Summary      350
Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)-Solution Design     351
Exercises     353
References     354
Decision Making   Michael J. Kwinn, Jr   Gregory S. Parnell     357
Introduction     357
Preparing to Score Candidate Solutions     358
Revised Problem Statement     358
Value Model     359
Candidate Solutions     359
Modeling and Simulation Results     359
Confirm Value Measure Ranges and Weights     359
Four Scoring Methods     360
Operations     360
Testing     360
Modeling     360
Simulation     361
Expert Opinion     361
Revisit Value Measures and Weights     362
Score Candidate Solutions or Candidate Components     362
Software for Decision Analysis     363
Candidate Solution Scoring and Value Calculation     364
Candidate Components Scoring and System Optimization     366
Conduct Sensitivity Analysis     371
Analyzing Sensitivity on Weights     372
Sensitivity Analysis on Weights Using Excel     373
Conduct Monte Carlo Simulation on Measure Scores     377
Use Value-Focused Thinking to Improve Solutions     380
Conduct Cost Analysis     383
Conduct Cost/Benefit Analysis     384
Prepare Recommendation Report and Presentation     385
Develop Report     385
Develop Presentation     386
Prepare for Solution Implementation     391
Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)-Decision Making     391
Exercises     394
References     397
Solution Implementation   Robert Powell     399
Introduction     399
The Solution Implementation Phase     400
Planning for Action: The Work Breakdown Structure     403
System Performance Measurement     405
Monitoring     406
Assessing     406
Controlling     406
Solution Implementation Strategy     407
Implementation for the "Produce the System" Life Cycle Stage     408
Planning for Action     409
Developing the Organization     409
Execution     412
Assessment and Control     413
Implementation for the "Deploy the System" Life Cycle Stage      414
Planning for Action     415
Execution     416
Assessment and Control     416
Implementation in the "Operate the System" Life Cycle Stage     417
Planning for Action     417
Execution     418
Assessment and Control     418
Summary     419
Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)-Implementation     422
Exercises     426
References     427
Summary   Gregory S. Parnell     429
Systems Thinking is the Key to Systems Engineering and Systems Decision Making     430
Systems Thinking Focuses on System Behavior in the Current and Future Operating Environment     430
System Managers Must Consider the System Life Cycle     430
Modeling and Simulation are Important Tools for Systems Engineers     430
The System Life Cycle is a Key Risk Management Tool     430
Life Cycle Costing is an Important Tool for Systems Engineering     431
Systems Engineers Play a Critical Role in the System Life Cycle     431
Systems Engineers Lead Interdisciplinary Teams to Obtain System Solutions That Create Value for Decision Makers and Stakeholders     431
Systems Engineers Convert Stakeholder Needs to System Functions and Requirements     431
Systems Engineers Define Value and Manage System Effectiveness     432
Systems Engineers Have Key Roles Throughout the System Life Cycle     432
A Systems Decision Process is Required for Complex Systems Decisions     432
Problem Definition is the Key to Systems Decisions     433
If We Want Better Decisions, We Need Better System Solution Designs     433
We Need to Identify the Best Value for the Resources     433
Solution Implementation Requires Planning and Execution     433
Systems Engineering will Become More Challenging     434
Index     435
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