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In the early 1980s,Shilling was one of the first to raise the possibility of disinflation ... At the time,he was considered extreme,but that's just what happened. Now he's considered extreme once ...
In the early 1980s,Shilling was one of the first to raise the possibility of disinflation ... At the time,he was considered extreme,but that's just what happened. Now he's considered extreme once again. We'll see—Terry Savage,Personal Finance Columnist,CHICAGO SUN-TIMES.
Were you to have followed Shilling's advice in the early 1980s,you would have been a full participant in the 15-year bull market in both bonds and stocks that ensued. . . his analysis,as usual,deserves careful consideration. —Bruce J. McCowan,Former Chairman,McCowan Associates,Inc.
Remember the days of inflation? The days of double-digit price increases,inflation-fighting sales at the local market,buying today before prices increased tomorrow? The era of inflation is over,says,A. Gary Shilling. He should know. He was among the first to predict the demise of inflation 20 years ago. Now he says the economy is entering a period of deflation,with chronic and widespread declines in prices that will affect people's investments,their businesses,and their personal affairs. And he shows investors how to craft a portfolio that will shield their capital from loss as it continues to increase their wealth in deflationary times.
Dr. Shilling is the influential forecaster and Forbes columnist consistently ranked among the leaders by The Wall Street Journal,and twice voted Wall Street's top economist inInstitutional Investor's poll of financial institutions. In Deflation,he sounds a clarion call for forward-thinking investors everywhere. A number of factors—including the end of the Cold War,the increasing popularity of the Internet,the new era of government surpluses,and increased competition,deregulation,and free-market economies worldwide—are joining to usher in a new,and unfamiliar,era of deflation after more than six decades of inflation. Shilling tells why the coming inflationary era will be a positive development,spurred mainly by the rapid development of new technologies and increasing supplies of almost everything. And he shows readers how to navigate their way through a rough transition period that will be sparked by a significant decline in today's overpriced stock market.
Investors,businesspeople,and individuals will all profit from Dr. Shilling's exhaustive research and lively,easy-to-understand writing style. For those looking to survive—and thrive—in the coming wave of inflation,this book will be an essential guide,providing specific investment and business guidelines,including: An 18-point investment strategy for creating your own bull market—during both the transition to deflation and the deflationary era itself; How to steer clear of the Asian Contagion and which global hotspots are most likely to be infected; Why bonds will outperform the stock markets—and which bonds should be strongest! Long-buying and short-selling strategies to profit from both the winners and losers during deflation; A 25-point plan—including ruthless cost cutting and low inventories—that will help your business survive and thrive during deflation.
While the road to deflation may be bumpy,today's deflation will not spell another Great Depression. In fact,Dr. Shilling foresees as a period of 'good'deflation in which,in the long run,technological advances and increased competition may even serve to boost real income and productions. But you will have to reshape your thinking,sharpen your skills,and re-orient the focus of your portfolios. Businesses will have to develop new strategies. Individuals will have to retrench and find new ways to save money. Ignoring Dr. Gary Shilling's well-researched forecasts has often been a mistake—an expensive mistake. Don't miss this chance to read Deflation and prepare for tomorrow's dramatically different economic environment. It may be the best investment decision of your lifetime.
|Ch. 1||Government Spending Is Shrinking||3|
|Ch. 2||The Role of Central Banks||11|
|Ch. 3||Restructuring in the United States Continues||19|
|Ch. 4||Mergers at Home and Restructuring Abroad||30|
|Ch. 5||High Tech Is Deflationary||38|
|Ch. 6||The Internet and Mass Distribution||48|
|Ch. 7||Global Deregulation||57|
|Ch. 8||Global Sourcing and New Market Economies||63|
|Ch. 9||The Strengthening Dollar||69|
|Ch. 10||The Asian Contagion||77|
|Ch. 11||Slow Recovery in Asia||88|
|Ch. 12||American Consumers Will Save More||100|
|Ch. 13||U.S. Saving Spree, Triggered by a Bear Market, Ensures Deflation||110|
|Ch. 14||Deflation Is Self-Feeding||129|
|Ch. 15||Deflation and the Kondratieff Wave||137|
|Ch. 16||The Two Faces of Deflation||144|
|Ch. 17||The Looming Threat of Protectionism||157|
|Ch. 18||Western Central Banks and Governments Can't Stop Deflation||169|
|Ch. 19||The Coming Era of Good Deflation||182|
|Ch. 20||Interest Rates and Profits||192|
|Ch. 21||Bond-Based Investment Strategy for Deflation||209|
|Ch. 22||Utilities and Stocks as Deflationary Investments||221|
|Ch. 23||The Myth of Global Diversification||230|
|Ch. 24||New Technologies Win in Deflation||239|
|Ch. 25||Consumer Spending Winners||253|
|Ch. 26||Avoid Commodities and Real Estate||262|
|Ch. 27||How to Invest in Deflation||279|
|Ch. 28||Market Timing, Stock Exposure, and Leverage||290|
|Ch. 29||Twenty-Five Business Strategies for Deflation||303|
|Ch. 30||Six Personal Strategies for Deflation||320|