Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior

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China's recent reforms have led to unprecedented economic growth; if this continues, China will be able to turn its great potential power into actual power. The result could be, in the very long term, the rise of China as a rival to the United States as the world's predominant power; in the nearer term, China could become a significant rival in the East Asian region. In this context, the issue for U.S. policy is how to handle a rising power, a problem that predominant powers have faced many times throughout ...

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Overview

China's recent reforms have led to unprecedented economic growth; if this continues, China will be able to turn its great potential power into actual power. The result could be, in the very long term, the rise of China as a rival to the United States as the world's predominant power; in the nearer term, China could become a significant rival in the East Asian region. In this context, the issue for U.S. policy is how to handle a rising power, a problem that predominant powers have faced many times throughout history. It is the contention of this report that the future Sino-U.S. context will illustrate many of the problems of deterrence theory that have been discussed in recent decades; deterrence theory will be, in general, more difficult to apply than it was in the U.S.-Soviet Cold War context. The key may be to seek nonmilitary means of deterrence, i.e., diplomatic ways to manipulate the tension to China's disadvantage.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780833028532
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation
  • Publication date: 6/5/2000
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 85
  • Lexile: 1620L (what's this?)
  • Product dimensions: 6.36 (w) x 8.94 (h) x 0.23 (d)

Table of Contents

Preface
Summary
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
Ch. 1 Introduction 1
Ch. 2 The Role of Deterrence in U.S. China Policy 3
Ch. 3 The Historical Record 7
U.S. Deterrence of China 7
Soviet Deterrence of China 11
Ch. 4 Deterrence in the Context of Sino-U.S. Relations 17
Ch. 5 Deterrence and its Discontents 23
Commitment and Rationality 23
"Salami Tactics" 29
Perceptions of the Balance of Forces 31
"Strategic Culture" 33
Ch. 6 Deterring China in the Future 35
The Difficulty of Deterring Chinese Use of Force 35
Scenario: Deterrence of Chinese Use of Force Against Taiwan 40
Role of Deterrence in a Future Sino-U.S. Relationship 52
Nonmilitary Types of Deterrence 52
App Chinese "Deterrence" Attempts: Failures and Successes 55
Bibliography 81
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