Deterrence Under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare

by Edward Geist

Overview

For decades, films such as WarGames and The Terminator have warned that the combination of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons might be a recipe for an apocalypse. Might these prophecies of doom become reality in coming decades?

Using insights from computer science, Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely. Detailed chapters explain how the landscape of nuclear deterrence is changing and debunks the myths of machine intelligence and nuclear weapons. This book gives a practitioner's perspective on how artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies could change the role of nuclear weapons in international relations.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780198976127
Publisher:	Oxford University Press
Publication date:	11/28/2025
Pages:	288
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 1.25(h) x 9.00(d)

About the Author

Edward Geist, Senior Policy Researcher, RAND Corporation

Edward Geist is a Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation, where his research interests include Russia (primarily defense policy), civil defense, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and particularly the potential impact of emerging technologies on nuclear strategy. He is the author of Armageddon Insurance: Civil Defense in the United States and Soviet Union, 1945-1991 (University of North Carolina Press, 2019).

Table of Contents

Introduction: Artificial Intelligence and the Nuclear DilemmaThe Emerging Strategic EnvironmentFrom Celluloid Nightmares to Silicon RealitiesNo Place to Hide? Recipe for a WOPRFog-of-War MachinesStrategic Stability in a Deception-Dominant WorldConclusion: A Case for (Tempered) OptimismAppendix A: The Mathematics of TrackingAppendix B: A Bayesian Perspective on Camouflage, Concealment, and DeceptionAppendix C: A Rudimentary Model of Ontological ConfrontationIndex