Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations

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A debate will likely occur in 2009 about U.S. global national-security strategy. The authors describe and illustrate a methodology to help frame and evaluate resource-informed strategies. The core is an integrated portfolio-analysis approach that compares options by their anticipated effectiveness, risks, and resource implications, Three illustrative grand strategies are compared, which deal in different ways with the problems of our time.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780833045027
  • Publisher: Rand Publishing
  • Publication date: 12/25/2008
  • Pages: 202
  • Product dimensions: 6.00 (w) x 8.90 (h) x 0.60 (d)

Meet the Author

Paul K. Davis (Ph.D., M.I.T., Chemical Physics) is a Senior Scientist and Research Leader at RAND.

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Table of Contents

Figures Tables Ch. 1 Introduction 1 The Challenge: Resource-Informed Assessment and Recommendations 1 Enhancing the National, Joint Perspective 2 Need for an Integrated Portfolio Framework 4 Outline of the Monograph 6 Ch. 2 The Operating-Unit Perspective 9 Motivations 9 Cautions 11 Current COCOMs and "National Command" 12 Ch. 3 Characterizing Alternative Strategies in Terms of Implications for Operating Units (COCOMs) 17 Overview 17 Elements of the Process 20 Ch. 4 Application to Some Illustrative Strategies 25 Characterizing the Strategies 25 Objectives of COCOMs 27 Capabilities Needed by Operating Units 30 Actions: Programs and Force Shifts to Address Capability Needs 33 Alternative Expressions of Costs 59 Other Cost Breakdowns, by Service, COCOM, and Combinations 72 Noneconomic Costs 72 Ch. 5 Integrated Portfolio Analysis of Illustrative Strategies 73 Basic Concepts 73 The Alternative Strategies 78 Effectiveness Comparisons 80 Nominal Comparison of Risks 85 Uncertainty: Consequences of Different Perspectives and Assumption Set 88 A Modern Approach to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 89 Using Portfolio Analysis to Improve Strategies 101 Summary Objective: Strategy That Is Flexible, Adaptive, and Robust (a "FAR Strategy") 104 Ch. 6 Conclusions 107 Methodology, Tools, and Analysis 107 Using the Methods and Tools 108 Next Steps for Research and Applications 111 Appendix A Responsibilities of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff 113 B The Portfolio Analysis Tool 115 C A Tool for Customized Reporting 119 D Documentation of Cost Estimates 127 E Treatment of Risks 145 Bibliography 157
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