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Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations
     

Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations

by Paul K. Davis, Stuart E. Johnson, Duncan Long, kavid C. Gompert
 

ISBN-10: 0833045024

ISBN-13: 9780833045027

Pub. Date: 12/25/2008

Publisher: Rand Publishing

A debate will likely occur in 2009 about U.S. global national-security strategy. The authors describe and illustrate a methodology to help frame and evaluate resource-informed strategies. The core is an integrated portfolio-analysis approach that compares options by their anticipated effectiveness, risks, and resource implications, Three illustrative grand

Overview

A debate will likely occur in 2009 about U.S. global national-security strategy. The authors describe and illustrate a methodology to help frame and evaluate resource-informed strategies. The core is an integrated portfolio-analysis approach that compares options by their anticipated effectiveness, risks, and resource implications, Three illustrative grand strategies are compared, which deal in different ways with the problems of our time.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780833045027
Publisher:
Rand Publishing
Publication date:
12/25/2008
Pages:
202
Product dimensions:
6.00(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.60(d)

Related Subjects

Table of Contents

Preface iii

Figures ix

Tables xi

Summary xiii

Acknowledgments xxxiii

Acronyms and Abbreviations xxxv

Chapter One Introduction 1

The Challenge: Resource-Informed Assessment and Recommendations 1

Enhancing the National, Joint Perspective 2

Aligning Joint Responsibilities, Authorities, and Resources 2

Partnership with the Military Departments 3

Need for an Integrated Portfolio Framework 4

Outline of the Monograph 6

Chapter Two The Operating-Unit Perspective 9

Motivations 9

The Logic of the Operating-Unit Framework 9

The Framework as a Next Step in Jointness 10

Cautions 11

Current COCOMs and "National Command" 12

Current COCOMs 12

A National Command for Analytic Purposes 14

Chapter Three Characterizing Alternative Strategies in Terms of Implications for Operating Units (COCOMs) 17

Overview 17

Expressing Strategy and Goals 17

Planning for Adaptiveness 18

The Analytic Flow 19

Elements of the Process 20

Operating-Unit Objectives 20

Capabilities Needed to Meet Operating-Unit Objectives 21

Programs and Force Shifts to Develop Needed Capabilities 21

Resource Implications 22

Chapter Four Application to Some Illustrative Strategies 25

Characterizing the Strategies 25

Premises of the Alternative Strategies 25

Contrasting Goals, Approaches, and Preparations for Adaptation 27

The Possibility of Failure and the Need for Strategic Adaptiveness 27

Objectives of COCOMs 27

Capabilities Needed by Operating Units 30

Actions: Programs and Force Shifts to Address Capability Needs 33

An Analytic Baseline 33

Programs and Force Shifts to Support the Direct GWOT/COIN Strategy 42

Programs and Force Shifts to Support the BuildLocal, Defend Global Strategy 45

Programs and Force Shifts to Support the Respond to Rising China Strategy 54

Alternative Expressions of Costs 59

Principles 59

Total Costs of Strategy 61

Sensitivities to Discount Rate and the Convention for Calculating NPV 67

The Special Costs of War or Other Intensive Operations 68

Costs When Strategies Fail 69

Other Cost Breakdowns, by Service, COCOM, and Combinations 72

Noneconomic Costs 72

Chapter Five Integrated Portfolio Analysis of Illustrative Strategies 73

Basic Concepts 73

Capabilities-Based Planning and Portfolio Management 73

Methods for Portfolio Analysis 75

The Alternative Strategies 78

Effectiveness Comparisons 80

Nominal Comparison of Risks 85

Uncertainty: Consequences of Different Perspectives and Assumption Sets 88

A Modern Approach to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 89

The Dubious Concept of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Across Categories of Goodness 89

A Nominal Analysis 91

Reflecting Different Perspectives and Assumptions 92

A First Cut at Exploratory Analysis for Alternative Military Strategies 94

Using Portfolio Analysis to Improve Strategies 101

The Need to Balance the Risks Better 101

Hedges to Improve Strategic and Operational Adaptiveness 103

Summary Objective: Strategy That Is Flexible, Adaptive, and Robust (a "FAR Strategy") 104

Chapter Six Conclusions 107

Methodology, Tools, and Analysis 107

Using the Methods and Tools 108

Attributes of Good Strategic Analysis 108

Challenges 109

Next Steps for Research and Applications 111

Appendix

A Responsibilities of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff 113

B The Portfolio Analysis Tool 115

C A Tool for Customized Reporting 119

D Documentation of Cost Estimates 127

E Treatment of Risks 145

Bibliography 157

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