Do Voters Look to the Future?: Economics and Elections

Do Voters Look to the Future?: Economics and Elections

by Brad Lockerbie
     
 

ISBN-10: 079147481X

ISBN-13: 9780791474815

Pub. Date: 06/01/2008

Publisher: State University of New York Press

Do voters look to the past, the future, or both when deciding how to vote? In Do Voters Look to the Future?, Brad Lockerbie shows voters to be more sophisticated than much of the work in political science would suggest. He argues that voters do not simply reward or punish the incumbent administration, but instead make a comparative evaluation of the likely

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Overview

Do voters look to the past, the future, or both when deciding how to vote? In Do Voters Look to the Future?, Brad Lockerbie shows voters to be more sophisticated than much of the work in political science would suggest. He argues that voters do not simply reward or punish the incumbent administration, but instead make a comparative evaluation of the likely performance of each candidate and vote for the one that will most likely provide them with a prosperous future. Making use of data from 1956 through the present, Lockerbie finds that voters take into account both what has happened and what they think will happen when they vote. He finds these economic evaluations to be strongly related to voting behavior both for the House and the Senate, as well as the presidency. Additionally, Lockerbie examines the role of these economic items to explain changes in party identification.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780791474815
Publisher:
State University of New York Press
Publication date:
06/01/2008
Pages:
170
Product dimensions:
6.10(w) x 9.20(h) x 0.80(d)

Table of Contents

Ch. 1 Introduction 1

Ch. 2 Simple Economic Relationships 15

Appendix 2.1 Prospective Evaluations: Are They Partisan Rationalizations? 33

Ch. 3 Party Identification: Is It Changeable? Is It Explicable? 35

Appendix 3.1 Instrumental Variables for PID[subscript r-1] (3-Point and 7-Point Scales) 53

Appendix 3.2 Party Identification as a Function of Retrospective and Prospective Economic Evaluations with Actual Past Party Identification (3-Point and 7-Point Scales) 55

Appendix 3.3 Party Identification as a Function of Changes in Evaluations (3-Point and 7-Point Scales) 57

Ch. 4 Presidential Elections: A More Comprehensive View 61

Ch. 5 Congressional Elections: Yes, the Senate Too 77

Ch. 6 Economics and Politics: Egocentric or Sociotropic? 99

Appendix 6.1 Retrospective Egocentric and Sociotropic Items Predicting Political Attitudes: 1992 111

Appendix 6.2 Retrospective Egocentric, Sociotropic, and Prospective Items Predicting Political Attitudes: 1992 111

Appendix 6.3 Retrospective Egocentric, Sociotropic, and Prospective Economic Evaluations, Ideology, and Party Identification Predicting Political Attitudes: 1992 112

Ch. 7 Forecasting Elections 113

Appendix 7.1 Data and Sources of Data 123

Ch. 8 Concluding Remarks 125

Notes 129

References 141

Index 153

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